Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2012 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-10-07, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 30–27 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +8.45 total EPA, and -2.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.41 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-27.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (:08) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +10.41 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +8.45 total EPA · 67 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Cobb · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +6.78 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.69 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +4.53 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Benson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.20 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.60 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Allen · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.60 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +2.04 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Green · Green Bay Packers · Rushing · +0.92 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — J. Kuhn (Q1 47:10)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Rodgers (Q2 42:31)
• Green Bay Packers — R. Cobb (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 34:27)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Allen (A. Luck pass) (Q3 26:11)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Luck (Q3 15:23)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Rodgers (Q4 4:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (A. Luck pass) (Q4 0:39)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 36:25)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 22:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 8:08)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 7–0. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q1 47:10) — (2:10) (Run formation) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 47:07) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 14–3. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q2 42:31); Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 42:25) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the GB 6 (Q2 36:25) — (6:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the IND 31 (Q2 34:27) — (4:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 34:21) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 16–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the GB 8 (Q3 26:11) — (11:11) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 83-D.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q3 26:06) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the GB 32 (Q3 22:45); Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the GB 3 (Q3 15:23) — (:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 11–6. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the GB 10 (Q4 8:08) — (8:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the IND 8 (Q4 4:34) — (4:34) (Run formation) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-Ja.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the GB 4 (Q4 0:39) — (:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the GB 2 (Q4 0:35) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 31-D.Brown rushes left guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (Q4 0:08) — (:08) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. [WPA -27.3% · EPA -2.01]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 4:44) — (4:44) (Run formation) 20-A.Green up the middle pushed ob at IND 8 for 41 yards (25-J.Powers). [WPA +15.8% · EPA +2.81]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:35) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 31-D.Brown rushes left guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. [WPA +14.8% · EPA +1.05]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 0:30) — (:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb ran ob at IND 47 for 26 yards. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +0.95]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:48) — (1:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 87-R.Wayne to GB 14 for 18 yards (42-M.Burnett). [WPA +14.2% · EPA +1.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Green Bay Packers (Q2 34:27) — (4:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +1.8% · EPA +4.02]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 28:24) — (13:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 89-Ja.Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Powers at GB 39. 25-J.Powers pushed ob at GB 39 for no gain (89-Ja.Jones). [WPA -5.2% · EPA -3.77]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 18:22) — (3:22) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. [WPA -6.6% · EPA -3.76]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 49:43) — (4:43) 12-A.Luck right guard to GB 44 for no gain (50-A.Hawk). Penalty on IND-11-D.Avery, Illegal Shift, declined. [WPA -4.8% · EPA -3.09]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 67 dropbacks · 46.3% completion · -2.1% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +8.45 total EPA
• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 47 dropbacks · 42.6% completion · +0.5% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +4.53 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Green Bay Packers +0.02, Indianapolis Colts +0.03) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Green Bay Packers: 15 drives, +2.01 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 15 drives, +3.85 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 47:10 · IND 2 · Score 6-0
   (2:10) (Run formation) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 47:07 · IND 2 · Score 7-0
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
3. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 42:31 · IND 6 · Score 13-0
   (12:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 89-Ja.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs
4. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 42:25 · IND 2 · Score 14-0
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
5. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 36:25 · GB 6 · Score 14-3
   (6:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 34:27 · IND 31 · Score 20-3
   (4:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 34:21 · IND 2 · Score 21-3
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
8. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 26:11 · GB 8 · Score 21-9
   (11:11) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 83-D.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 26:06 · GB 2 · Score 21-10
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
10. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 22:45 · GB 32 · Score 21-13
    (7:45) 4-A.Vinatieri 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. Penalty on GB-22-J.McMillian, Defensive Offside, declined.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 15:23 · GB 3 · Score 21-19
    (:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 8:08 · GB 10 · Score 21-22
    (8:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
13. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 4:34 · IND 8 · Score 27-22
    (4:34) (Run formation) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-Ja.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 0:39 · GB 4 · Score 27-28
    (:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q4 0:35 · GB 2 · Score 27-30
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 31-D.Brown rushes left guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.