Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-04, the Detroit Lions took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 28–13 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) paced the passing game, with +17.64 total EPA, and +7.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.64 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+13.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Detroit Lions changed the game: (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 29, YAC 37

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +17.64 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
2. 2 G. Tate · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +9.08 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.91 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Jones · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.63 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Boldin · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.86 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Cadet · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.16 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
6. 6 E. Ebron · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.15 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Washington · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.03 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Kuhn · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.61 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.61 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Detroit Lions — T. Riddick (M. Stafford pass) (Q2 43:05)
• New Orleans Saints — J. Kuhn (Q4 13:40)
• Detroit Lions — G. Tate (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 11:50)

Field goals

• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q1 53:18)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q2 35:11)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q2 30:59)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q2 30:05)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q3 24:00)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q3 16:46)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q4 7:15)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 3–0. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the NO 9 (Q1 53:18) — (8:18) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 10–6. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the NO 1 (Q2 43:05) — (13:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 43:03) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the DET 22 (Q2 35:11) — (5:11) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the NO 11 (Q2 30:59) — (:59) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the DET 14 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The third quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 6–0. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the NO 14 (Q3 24:00) — (9:00) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the NO 9 (Q3 16:46) — (1:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 9–7. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the DET 1 (Q4 13:40) — (13:40) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 29-J.Kuhn left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q4 13:32); Detroit Lions found the end zone from the NO 66 (Q4 11:50) — (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 29, YAC 37; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the NO 33 (Q4 7:15) — (7:15) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 11:50) — (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 29, YAC 37 [WPA +13.7% · EPA +6.67]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 26:21) — (11:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 13-T.Jones to NO 19 for 36 yards (48-V.Bell, 40-D.Breaux). Pass 30, YAC 6 [WPA +10.9% · EPA +4.36]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 58:36) — (13:36) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees to NO 23 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NO 11. 9-D.Brees pass incomplete right. PENALTY on NO-9-D.Brees, Intentional Grounding, 20 yards, enforced at NO 27. Brees f [WPA -9.9% · EPA -4.20]
• Detroit Lions (Q1 47:15) — (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to DET 34 for 12 yards (48-V.Bell). Pass 12, YAC 0 [WPA +7.0% · EPA +2.35]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 38:08) — (8:08) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram right end pushed ob at DET 21 for 22 yards (27-G.Quin). [WPA +6.6% · EPA +1.61]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 11:50) — (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 29, YAC 37 [WPA +13.7% · EPA +6.67]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 5:26) — (5:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 83-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Wilson at DET 26. 32-T.Wilson to DET 44 for 18 yards (13-M.Thomas). [WPA -2.8% · EPA -5.34]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 26:21) — (11:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 13-T.Jones to NO 19 for 36 yards (48-V.Bell, 40-D.Breaux). Pass 30, YAC 6 [WPA +10.9% · EPA +4.36]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 58:36) — (13:36) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees to NO 23 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NO 11. 9-D.Brees pass incomplete right. PENALTY on NO-9-D.Brees, Intentional Grounding, 20 yards, enforced at NO 27. Brees f [WPA -9.9% · EPA -4.20]

Quarterback report card

M.Stafford led all passers in efficiency for Detroit Lions, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 50 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +7.2% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +17.64 total EPA
• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 47 dropbacks · 66.0% completion · +4.6% CPOE · -0.16 EPA/play · -7.51 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Detroit Lions generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.15 vs -0.15), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Detroit Lions: 9 drives, +12.47 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 10 drives, -12.37 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Detroit Lions leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Stafford (DET) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Brees (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q1 53:18 · NO 9 · Score 3-0
   (8:18) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
2. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 43:05 · NO 1 · Score 9-0
   (13:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0
3. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q2 43:03 · NO 15 · Score 10-0
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 35:11 · DET 22 · Score 10-3
   (5:11) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
5. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q2 30:59 · NO 11 · Score 13-3
   (:59) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
6. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · DET 14 · Score 13-6
   (:05) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
7. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q3 24:00 · NO 14 · Score 16-6
   (9:00) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
8. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q3 16:46 · NO 9 · Score 19-6
   (1:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
9. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 13:40 · DET 1 · Score 19-12
   (13:40) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 29-J.Kuhn left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 13:32 · DET 15 · Score 19-13
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. PENALTY on DET-23-D.Slay, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
11. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 11:50 · NO 66 · Score 25-13
    (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 29, YAC 37
12. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q4 7:15 · NO 33 · Score 28-13
    (7:15) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.