Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-09-25, the Green Bay Packers took care of business against the Detroit Lions, pulling away with a 34–27 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) paced the passing game, with +18.92 total EPA, and +7.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.92 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+9.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Defensive Pass Interference, 66 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +18.92 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Jones · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +17.83 total EPA · 8 snaps · +2.23 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +16.89 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Nelson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +9.33 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.33 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Boldin · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.63 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Adams · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +2.67 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.34 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Tate · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.55 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Riddick · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.28 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — D. Adams (A. Rodgers pass) (Q1 56:27)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q1 46:07)
• Green Bay Packers — R. Rodgers (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 44:51)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 31:14)
• Detroit Lions — M. Jones (M. Stafford pass) (Q2 30:42)
• Detroit Lions — A. Boldin (M. Stafford pass) (Q3 23:26)
• Detroit Lions — M. Jones (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 3:40)

Field goals

• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q1 47:49)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q2 40:45)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q3 18:18)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q4 12:35)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 14–3. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the DET 14 (Q1 56:27) — (11:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q1 56:22) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the GB 23 (Q1 47:49) — (2:49) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the DET 8 (Q1 46:07) — (1:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q1 46:01) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 17–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the DET 2 (Q2 44:51) — (14:51) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-R.Rodgers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET, Defensive Holding, declined.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q2 44:46) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the DET 18 (Q2 40:45) — (10:45) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the DET 17 (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-J.Nelson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q2 31:10) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the GB 73 (Q2 30:42) — (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 30:32) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 7–3. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the GB 2 (Q3 23:26) — (8:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q3 23:23) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the DET 28 (Q3 18:18) — (3:18) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum..

The fourth quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 10–0. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the GB 32 (Q4 12:35) — (12:35) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the GB 35 (Q4 3:40) — (3:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q4 3:34) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Defensive Pass Interference, 66 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +5.29]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 58:01) — (13:01) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb to DET 17 for 33 yards (23-D.Slay). [WPA +8.8% · EPA +2.08]
• Detroit Lions (Q2 41:52) — (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Randall at GB 31. 23-D.Randall to DET 25 for 44 yards (71-R.Reiff). [WPA -8.0% · EPA -6.92]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 47:45) — (2:45) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson to DET 11 for 49 yards (32-T.Wilson). [WPA +7.4% · EPA +2.83]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 56:27) — (11:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.6% · EPA +3.02]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Detroit Lions (Q2 41:52) — (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Randall at GB 31. 23-D.Randall to DET 25 for 44 yards (71-R.Reiff). [WPA -8.0% · EPA -6.92]
• Detroit Lions (Q2 30:42) — (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.2% · EPA +6.55]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Defensive Pass Interference, 66 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +5.29]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 23:26) — (8:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.3% · EPA +3.89]

Quarterback report card

M.Stafford led all passers in efficiency for Detroit Lions, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 47 dropbacks · 59.6% completion · +7.7% CPOE · +0.40 EPA/play · +18.92 total EPA
• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 31 dropbacks · 48.4% completion · -0.1% CPOE · +0.54 EPA/play · +16.89 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Green Bay Packers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.24 vs +0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Detroit Lions: 9 drives, +11.22 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 10 drives, +16.77 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Green Bay Packers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Stafford (DET) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 56:27 · DET 14 · Score 0-6
   (11:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 56:22 · DET 15 · Score 0-7
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
3. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q1 47:49 · GB 23 · Score 3-7
   (2:49) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 46:07 · DET 8 · Score 3-13
   (1:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 46:01 · DET 15 · Score 3-14
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
6. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 44:51 · DET 2 · Score 3-20
   (14:51) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-R.Rodgers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET, Defensive Holding, declined.
7. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 44:46 · DET 15 · Score 3-21
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
8. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q2 40:45 · DET 18 · Score 3-24
   (10:45) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
9. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 31:14 · DET 17 · Score 3-30
   (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-J.Nelson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 31:10 · DET 15 · Score 3-31
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
11. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 30:42 · GB 73 · Score 9-31
    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q2 30:32 · GB 15 · Score 10-31
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
13. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q3 23:26 · GB 2 · Score 16-31
    (8:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q3 23:23 · GB 15 · Score 17-31
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
15. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q3 18:18 · DET 28 · Score 17-34
    (3:18) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
16. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q4 12:35 · GB 32 · Score 20-34
    (12:35) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
17. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 3:40 · GB 35 · Score 26-34
    (3:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 3:34 · GB 15 · Score 27-34
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.