Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-11-15, the Detroit Lions took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 18–16 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with +4.07 total EPA, and -6.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Perillo (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-45.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (:05) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Perillo · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +6.78 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.13 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Johnson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +4.49 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +4.07 total EPA · 69 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +3.54 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.16 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Riddick · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.28 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Tate · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +1.89 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Starks · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +1.86 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Detroit Lions — B. Pettigrew (M. Stafford pass) (Q3 28:37)
• Green Bay Packers — R. Rodgers (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 5:59)
• Detroit Lions — L. Moore (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 2:00)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Perillo (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 0:36)

Field goals

• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q1 55:11)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q2 30:17)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q4 13:15)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 3–0. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the DET 26 (Q1 55:11) — (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The second quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 3–0. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the GB 31 (Q2 30:17) — (:17) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 6–0. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the GB 2 (Q3 28:37) — (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-B.Pettigrew for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 13–9. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the GB 33 (Q4 13:15) — (13:15) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the DET 4 (Q4 5:59) — (5:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q4 5:55) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the GB 4 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 16-L.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the DET 11 (Q4 0:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Perillo for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (Q4 0:05) — (:05) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. [WPA -45.9% · EPA -1.84]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:32) — 2-M.Crosby kicks onside 16 yards from GB 35 to DET 49. RECOVERED by GB-23-D.Randall. [WPA -34.1% · EPA -1.03]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 30:00) — 2-M.Crosby kicks 70 yards from GB 35 to DET -5. 21-A.Abdullah to GB 1 for 104 yards (33-M.Hyde). [WPA +27.5% · EPA +6.01]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 0:32) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Rodgers pass to 17-D.Adams is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. [WPA -18.6% · EPA -0.95]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 6:27) — (6:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 84-J.Abbrederis to DET 4 for 32 yards (27-G.Quin). FUMBLES (27-G.Quin), ball out of bounds at DET 4. GB-84-J.Abbrederis was injured during t [WPA +12.6% · EPA +2.72]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Detroit Lions (Q3 30:00) — 2-M.Crosby kicks 70 yards from GB 35 to DET -5. 21-A.Abdullah to GB 1 for 104 yards (33-M.Hyde). [WPA +27.5% · EPA +6.01]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 2:42) — (2:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-G.Tate pushed ob at GB 5 for 43 yards (23-D.Randall). [WPA +11.3% · EPA +3.74]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 12:52) — (12:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-J.Perillo to DET 48 for 24 yards (59-T.Whitehead; 27-G.Quin). [WPA +6.1% · EPA +3.22]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 16:29) — (1:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle intended for 16-L.Moore INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at GB 6. 21-H.Clinton-Dix to GB 8 for 2 yards (16-L.Moore). [WPA -7.2% · EPA -3.18]

Quarterback report card

A.Rodgers led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 69 dropbacks · 50.7% completion · -6.5% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +4.07 total EPA
• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 38 dropbacks · 63.2% completion · -4.9% CPOE · +0.09 EPA/play · +3.54 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Detroit Lions +0.02, Green Bay Packers -0.02) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Detroit Lions: 13 drives, +1.43 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 14 drives, -2.38 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Detroit Lions leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Perillo (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Rodgers (GB) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• M. Stafford (DET) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q1 55:11 · DET 26 · Score 0-3
   (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
2. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q2 30:17 · GB 31 · Score 3-3
   (:17) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
3. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q3 28:37 · GB 2 · Score 9-3
   (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-B.Pettigrew for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q4 13:15 · GB 33 · Score 12-3
   (13:15) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
5. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 5:59 · DET 4 · Score 12-9
   (5:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 5:55 · DET 15 · Score 12-10
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
7. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 2:00 · GB 4 · Score 18-10
   (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 16-L.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 0:36 · DET 11 · Score 18-16
   (:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Perillo for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.