Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2015 NFL season on 2016-01-03, the Detroit Lions took care of business against the Chicago Bears, pulling away with a 24–20 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) paced the passing game, with +11.82 total EPA, and +10.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.82 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-33.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Chicago Bears changed the game: (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 14-D.Thompson INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin [94-E.Ansah] at DET 12. 27-G.Quin to DET 33 for 21 yards (22-M.Forte).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +11.82 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Johnson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +4.05 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Bell · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.83 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.92 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Forte · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +3.24 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Housler · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +2.45 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Bellamy · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +2.23 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Mariani · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +1.98 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Wright · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +1.92 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.92 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Detroit Lions — T. Wright (M. Stafford pass) (Q1 55:19)
• Chicago Bears — J. Bellamy (J. Cutler pass) (Q3 20:37)
• Detroit Lions — C. Johnson (M. Stafford pass) (Q3 16:15)
• Chicago Bears — M. Forte (J. Cutler pass) (Q4 13:29)
• Detroit Lions — E. Ebron (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 8:52)

Field goals

• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q2 30:01)
• Chicago Bears — R. Gould (Q3 24:09)
• Chicago Bears — R. Gould (Q4 5:44)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 7–0. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CHI 9 (Q1 55:19) — (10:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 83-T.Wright for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CHI 15 (Q1 55:14) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 3–0. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the CHI 40 (Q2 30:01) — (:01) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Chicago Bears won the period 10–7. Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the DET 31 (Q3 24:09) — (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; Chicago Bears found the end zone from the DET 34 (Q3 20:37) — (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Chicago Bears added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q3 20:28) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CHI 36 (Q3 16:15) — (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CHI 15 (Q3 16:07) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Chicago Bears won the period 10–7. Chicago Bears found the end zone from the DET 23 (Q4 13:29) — (13:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 22-M.Forte for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Chicago Bears added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q4 13:20) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CHI 1 (Q4 8:52) — (8:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CHI 15 (Q4 8:46) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the DET 16 (Q4 5:44) — (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Chicago Bears (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 14-D.Thompson INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin [94-E.Ansah] at DET 12. 27-G.Quin to DET 33 for 21 yards (22-M.Forte). [WPA -33.4% · EPA -4.34]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 16:15) — (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.9% · EPA +4.04]
• Chicago Bears (Q4 13:29) — (13:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 22-M.Forte for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.4% · EPA +2.77]
• Chicago Bears (Q3 20:37) — (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.8% · EPA +3.89]
• Chicago Bears (Q2 30:23) — (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 80-M.Mariani INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Whitehead (94-E.Ansah) at DET 36. 59-T.Whitehead to CHI 38 for 26 yards (22-M.Forte). [WPA -16.6% · EPA -3.19]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Chicago Bears (Q1 47:30) — (2:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 81-C.Meredith INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Ihedigbo (24-N.Lawson) at DET -8. Touchback. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -5.03]
• Chicago Bears (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 14-D.Thompson INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin [94-E.Ansah] at DET 12. 27-G.Quin to DET 33 for 21 yards (22-M.Forte). [WPA -33.4% · EPA -4.34]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 16:15) — (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.9% · EPA +4.04]
• Chicago Bears (Q3 20:37) — (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.8% · EPA +3.89]

Quarterback report card

M.Stafford led all passers in efficiency for Detroit Lions, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 46 dropbacks · 60.9% completion · +10.2% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +11.82 total EPA
• J.Cutler (Chicago Bears) · 28 dropbacks · 60.7% completion · +16.4% CPOE · +0.04 EPA/play · +1.22 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Detroit Lions generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.13 vs +0.06), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Chicago Bears: 9 drives, +3.98 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Detroit Lions: 10 drives, +9.91 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Detroit Lions leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Stafford (DET) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• J. Cutler (CHI) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q1 55:19 · CHI 9 · Score 6-0
   (10:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 83-T.Wright for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q1 55:14 · CHI 15 · Score 7-0
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
3. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q2 30:01 · CHI 40 · Score 10-0
   (:01) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q3 24:09 · DET 31 · Score 10-3
   (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
5. Chicago Bears TD (+6) — Q3 20:37 · DET 34 · Score 10-9
   (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Chicago Bears XP (+1) — Q3 20:28 · DET 15 · Score 10-10
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
7. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q3 16:15 · CHI 36 · Score 16-10
   (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q3 16:07 · CHI 15 · Score 17-10
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
9. Chicago Bears TD (+6) — Q4 13:29 · DET 23 · Score 17-16
   (13:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 22-M.Forte for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Chicago Bears XP (+1) — Q4 13:20 · DET 15 · Score 17-17
    9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
11. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 8:52 · CHI 1 · Score 23-17
    (8:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 8:46 · CHI 15 · Score 24-17
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
13. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q4 5:44 · DET 16 · Score 24-20
    (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.