Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills: 2010 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-11-14, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Detroit Lions, pulling away with a 14–12 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 10 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

S. Hill (Detroit Lions) paced the passing game, with +1.98 total EPA, and -8.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Johnson (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.49 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Detroit Lions changed the game: (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-Sh.Hill pass to 84-B.Pettigrew is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Overthrown, receiver in back of end zone.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Johnson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +9.49 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Smith · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.10 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Hill · Detroit Lions · Passing · +1.98 total EPA · 54 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Evans · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.57 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
5. 5 N. Burleson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +1.54 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
6. 6 N. Burleson · Detroit Lions · Rushing · +1.21 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
7. 7 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.65 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Felton · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +0.47 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — F. Jackson (Q2 43:13)
• Buffalo Bills — F. Jackson (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q3 26:35)
• Detroit Lions — C. Johnson (Q4 0:19)

Field goals

• Detroit Lions — D. Rayner (Q2 30:03)
• Detroit Lions — D. Rayner (Q4 5:58)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DET 1 (Q2 43:13) — (13:13) 22-F.Jackson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q2 43:10) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 3-D.Rayner 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DET 16 (Q3 26:35) — (11:35) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 22-F.Jackson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Shovel pass, caught at DET 18.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q3 26:26) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 9–0. Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the BUF 27 (Q4 5:58) — (5:58) 3-D.Rayner 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the BUF 20 (Q4 0:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 14-Sh.Hill pass deep middle to 81-C.Johnson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:14) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-Sh.Hill pass to 84-B.Pettigrew is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Overthrown, receiver in back of end zone. [WPA -18.5% · EPA -0.95]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 14-Sh.Hill pass deep middle to 81-C.Johnson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line. [WPA +18.3% · EPA +4.96]
• Detroit Lions (Q1 45:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 14-Sh.Hill pass short left intended for 85-T.Scheffler INTERCEPTED by 98-D.Edwards (20-D.Whitner) at BUF 35. 98-D.Edwards to BUF 43 for 8 yards (85-T.Scheffler). Pass tipped by D.Whitn [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.07]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 44:22) — (14:22) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 83-L.Evans pushed ob at DET 7 for 43 yards (23-C.Houston). Caught along sideline at DET 15. [WPA +10.5% · EPA +3.53]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:39) — (3:39) 22-F.Jackson right guard to DET 14 for -2 yards (58-A.Palmer). FUMBLES (58-A.Palmer), and recovers at DET 14. [WPA -10.4% · EPA -3.29]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Detroit Lions (Q1 45:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 14-Sh.Hill pass short left intended for 85-T.Scheffler INTERCEPTED by 98-D.Edwards (20-D.Whitner) at BUF 35. 98-D.Edwards to BUF 43 for 8 yards (85-T.Scheffler). Pass tipped by D.Whitn [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.07]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 14-Sh.Hill pass deep middle to 81-C.Johnson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line. [WPA +18.3% · EPA +4.96]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 44:22) — (14:22) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 83-L.Evans pushed ob at DET 7 for 43 yards (23-C.Houston). Caught along sideline at DET 15. [WPA +10.5% · EPA +3.53]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 12:50) — (12:50) 3-D.Rayner 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris. [WPA -3.0% · EPA -3.30]

Quarterback report card

S.Hill led all passers in efficiency for Detroit Lions, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• S.Hill (Detroit Lions) · 54 dropbacks · 53.7% completion · -8.4% CPOE · +0.04 EPA/play · +1.98 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 25 dropbacks · 48.0% completion · -6.2% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.44 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Detroit Lions -0.10, Buffalo Bills -0.12) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 14 drives, -9.31 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Detroit Lions: 13 drives, -10.39 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• C. Johnson (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• S. Hill (DET) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 43:13 · DET 1 · Score 0-6
   (13:13) 22-F.Jackson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 43:10 · DET 2 · Score 0-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · BUF 7 · Score 3-7
   (:03) 3-D.Rayner 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:35 · DET 16 · Score 3-13
   (11:35) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 22-F.Jackson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Shovel pass, caught at DET 18.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 26:26 · DET 2 · Score 3-14
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q4 5:58 · BUF 27 · Score 6-14
   (5:58) 3-D.Rayner 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.
7. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 0:19 · BUF 20 · Score 12-14
   (:19) (Shotgun) 14-Sh.Hill pass deep middle to 81-C.Johnson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line.