Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots: 2013 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-11-24, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 34–31 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +8.70 total EPA, and +8.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.70 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+61.3% win probability) landed in overtime when New England Patriots changed the game: (3:11) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-D.Aiken. 32-T.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-43-N.Ebner at DEN 13. 43-N.Ebner to DEN 13 for no gain (20-M.Adams).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +8.70 total EPA · 56 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.35 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
3. 3 K. Moreno · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +7.85 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Tamme · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +7.37 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.47 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.53 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Vereen · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.81 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Ball · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +2.32 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Thompkins · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.11 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — S. Ridley (Q1 55:07)
• Denver Broncos — K. Moreno (Q1 53:58)
• Denver Broncos — J. Tamme (P. Manning pass) (Q2 36:14)
• New England Patriots — J. Edelman (T. Brady pass) (Q3 26:26)
• New England Patriots — B. Bolden (Q3 20:45)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 15:23)
• New England Patriots — J. Edelman (T. Brady pass) (Q4 13:21)
• Denver Broncos — D. Thomas (P. Manning pass) (Q4 3:10)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q1 48:00)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 7:41)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (OT 2:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 17–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the DEN 40 (Q1 55:07); Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 54:54) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q1 53:58) — (8:58) (Shotgun) 27-K.Moreno right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 53:54) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 9 (Q1 48:00) — (3:00) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 10 (Q2 36:14) — (6:14) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 84-J.Tamme for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 36:10) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 21–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 5 (Q3 26:26) — (11:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 26:21); New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q3 20:45) — (5:45) 38-B.Bolden up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 20:40) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 6 (Q3 15:23); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 15:19) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 14 (Q4 13:21) — (13:21) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 13:13) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 13 (Q4 7:41) — (7:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 20th consecutive FG.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q4 3:10) — (3:10) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 3:06) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

Overtime: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 13 (OT 2:00).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (OT 3:11) — (3:11) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-D.Aiken. 32-T.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-43-N.Ebner at DEN 13. 43-N.Ebner to DEN 13 for no gain (20-M.Adams). [WPA +61.3% · EPA +4.53]
• Denver Broncos (OT 4:57) — (4:57) 4-B.Colquitt punts 22 yards to NE 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman. [WPA +48.2% · EPA -0.45]
• New England Patriots (Q1 55:07) — (10:07) (No Huddle) 22-S.Ridley up the middle to DEN 41 for -1 yards (52-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (52-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by DEN-58-V.Miller at DEN 40. 58-V.Miller for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -30.0% · EPA -10.30]
• New England Patriots (OT 2:21) — (2:21) 12-T.Brady up the middle to DEN 13 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan). [WPA +28.5% · EPA -0.34]
• New England Patriots (OT 10:15) — (10:15) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to DEN 12, Center-48-D.Aiken. 83-W.Welker to DEN 13 for 1 yard (59-C.White). [WPA +22.3% · EPA +0.21]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q1 55:07) — (10:07) (No Huddle) 22-S.Ridley up the middle to DEN 41 for -1 yards (52-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (52-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by DEN-58-V.Miller at DEN 40. 58-V.Miller for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -30.0% · EPA -10.30]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 23:40) — (8:40) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 28-M.Ball to DEN 42 for -6 yards (52-D.Fletcher). FUMBLES (52-D.Fletcher), touched at DEN 39, RECOVERED by NE-55-B.Spikes at DEN 32. [WPA -5.1% · EPA -5.72]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:30) — (9:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 21 for -7 yards (58-V.Miller). FUMBLES (58-V.Miller) [58-V.Miller], RECOVERED by DEN-94-T.Knighton at NE 23. 94-T.Knighton to NE 10 for 13 yards (70-L.Mankins) [WPA -14.3% · EPA -5.72]
• New England Patriots (OT 3:11) — (3:11) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-D.Aiken. 32-T.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-43-N.Ebner at DEN 13. 43-N.Ebner to DEN 13 for no gain (20-M.Adams). [WPA +61.3% · EPA +4.53]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 56 dropbacks · 60.7% completion · +8.7% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +8.70 total EPA
• P.Manning (Denver Broncos) · 42 dropbacks · 45.2% completion · -5.7% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -10.81 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Denver Broncos -0.03, New England Patriots -0.03) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Denver Broncos: 15 drives, -3.72 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 18 drives, -3.55 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• P. Manning (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 55:07 · DEN 40 · Score 6-0
   (10:07) (No Huddle) 22-S.Ridley up the middle to DEN 41 for -1 yards (52-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (52-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by DEN-58-V.Miller at DEN 40. 58-V.Mill
2. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 54:54 · NE 2 · Score 7-0
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
3. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 53:58 · NE 2 · Score 13-0
   (8:58) (Shotgun) 27-K.Moreno right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 53:54 · NE 2 · Score 14-0
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
5. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 48:00 · NE 9 · Score 17-0
   (3:00) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
6. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 36:14 · NE 10 · Score 23-0
   (6:14) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 84-J.Tamme for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 36:10 · NE 2 · Score 24-0
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 26:26 · DEN 5 · Score 24-6
   (11:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 26:21 · DEN 2 · Score 24-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 102nd consecutive game with a point, new franchise record (Vinatieri &
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 20:45 · DEN 1 · Score 24-13
    (5:45) 38-B.Bolden up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 20:40 · DEN 2 · Score 24-14
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 15:23 · DEN 6 · Score 24-20
    (:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 350th career TD pass, 5th in NFL history to reach that miles
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 15:19 · DEN 2 · Score 24-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
14. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 13:21 · DEN 14 · Score 24-27
    (13:21) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 13:13 · DEN 2 · Score 24-28
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
16. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 7:41 · DEN 13 · Score 24-31
    (7:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 20th consecutive FG.
17. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 3:10 · NE 11 · Score 30-31
    (3:10) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 3:06 · NE 2 · Score 31-31
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
19. New England Patriots FG (+3) — OT 2:00 · DEN 13 · Score 31-34
    (2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 12-Brady 38th career game with 3+ TD passes & no interceptions, 2nd mo