Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2007 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-09-30, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 38–20 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +11.23 total EPA, and +8.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.23 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+12.1% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (3:55) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-S.Rice].

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +11.23 total EPA · 29 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +9.07 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.51 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +8.67 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Young · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +4.35 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.23 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Marshall · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.82 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Keith · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +3.70 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Graham · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.02 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — B. Marshall (J. Cutler pass) (Q1 47:26)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q2 44:29)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Clark (P. Manning pass) (Q2 33:55)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Manning (Q3 26:48)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Clark (P. Manning pass) (Q3 23:59)
• Denver Broncos — J. Cutler (Q3 16:13)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (P. Manning pass) (Q4 11:00)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q1 56:36)
• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q2 38:32)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 2:38)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–0. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the IND 17 (Q1 56:36) — (11:36) 1-J.Elam 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 7 (Q1 47:26) — (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 15-B.Marshall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 47:19) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 14 (Q2 44:29) — (14:29) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 44:23) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the IND 4 (Q2 38:32) — (8:32) 1-J.Elam 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 9 (Q2 33:55) — (3:55) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-S.Rice].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 33:49) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q3 26:48) — (11:48) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 26:46) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 3 (Q3 23:59) — (8:59) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 23:55) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q3 16:13) — (1:13) 6-J.Cutler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 16:10) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 5 (Q4 11:00) — (11:00) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 10:56) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the DEN 4 (Q4 2:38) — (2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 33:55) — (3:55) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-S.Rice]. [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.03]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 49:35) — (4:35) 35-S.Young left end to IND 9 for 32 yards (26-K.Hayden). [WPA +9.9% · EPA +3.03]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:29) — (14:29) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.8% · EPA +1.98]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 47:26) — (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 15-B.Marshall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.92]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 26:04) — (11:04) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Jackson at DEN 24. 28-M.Jackson to DEN 24 for no gain (15-B.Marshall). [WPA -6.7% · EPA -4.24]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q3 26:04) — (11:04) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Jackson at DEN 24. 28-M.Jackson to DEN 24 for no gain (15-B.Marshall). [WPA -6.7% · EPA -4.24]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 49:35) — (4:35) 35-S.Young left end to IND 9 for 32 yards (26-K.Hayden). [WPA +9.9% · EPA +3.03]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 33:55) — (3:55) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-S.Rice]. [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.03]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 47:26) — (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 15-B.Marshall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.92]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 29 dropbacks · 69.0% completion · +8.2% CPOE · +0.39 EPA/play · +11.23 total EPA
• J.Cutler (Denver Broncos) · 22 dropbacks · 59.1% completion · -2.5% CPOE · +0.05 EPA/play · +1.12 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Indianapolis Colts held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.32 vs +0.14), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Denver Broncos: 9 drives, +9.72 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, +26.05 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 56:36 · IND 17 · Score 3-0
   (11:36) 1-J.Elam 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
2. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 47:26 · IND 7 · Score 9-0
   (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 15-B.Marshall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 47:19 · IND 2 · Score 10-0
   1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 44:29 · DEN 14 · Score 10-6
   (14:29) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 44:23 · DEN 2 · Score 10-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
6. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 38:32 · IND 4 · Score 13-7
   (8:32) 1-J.Elam 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 33:55 · DEN 9 · Score 13-13
   (3:55) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-S.Rice].
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 33:49 · DEN 2 · Score 13-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 26:48 · DEN 1 · Score 13-20
   (11:48) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 26:46 · DEN 2 · Score 13-21
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 23:59 · DEN 3 · Score 13-27
    (8:59) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 23:55 · DEN 2 · Score 13-28
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
13. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 16:13 · IND 2 · Score 19-28
    (1:13) 6-J.Cutler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 16:10 · IND 2 · Score 20-28
    1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
15. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 11:00 · DEN 5 · Score 20-34
    (11:00) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 10:56 · DEN 2 · Score 20-35
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
17. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 2:38 · DEN 4 · Score 20-38
    (2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.