Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots: 2022 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-12-24, the Cincinnati Bengals took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 22–18 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 12 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) paced the passing game, with +5.97 total EPA, and +14.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.30 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-63.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, en

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Higgins · Cincinnati Bengals · Receiving · +10.30 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.14 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Bourne · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.52 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Irwin · Cincinnati Bengals · Receiving · +7.30 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.83 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Burrow · Cincinnati Bengals · Passing · +5.97 total EPA · 58 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Meyers · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.70 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Jones · New England Patriots · Passing · +3.15 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Wilcox · Cincinnati Bengals · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Bourne · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.44 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.44 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Cincinnati Bengals — T. Higgins (J. Burrow pass) (Q1 57:31)
• Cincinnati Bengals — T. Irwin (J. Burrow pass) (Q1 50:23)
• Cincinnati Bengals — T. Irwin (J. Burrow pass) (Q2 30:19)
• New England Patriots — J. Burrow (Q3 19:05)
• New England Patriots — K. Bourne (M. Jones pass) (Q4 13:06)
• New England Patriots — J. Meyers (M. Jones pass) (Q4 6:13)

Field goals

• Cincinnati Bengals — E. McPherson (Q2 44:54)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Cincinnati Bengals won the period 12–0. Cincinnati Bengals found the end zone from the NE 9 (Q1 57:31) — (12:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Cincinnati Bengals found the end zone from the NE 23 (Q1 50:23) — (5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 16-T.Irwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Cincinnati Bengals won the period 10–0. Cincinnati Bengals connected on a field goal from the NE 10 (Q2 44:54) — (14:54) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.; Cincinnati Bengals found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 16-T.Irwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Cincinnati Bengals added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 30:14) — 2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 6–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 42 (Q3 19:05).

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 12–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the CIN 5 (Q4 13:06) — (13:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the CIN 48 (Q4 6:13).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 1:05) — (1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, en [WPA -63.4% · EPA -5.25]
• New England Patriots (Q4 6:13) — (6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington [WPA +20.0% · EPA +5.96]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q4 3:19) — (3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 41 for -3 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon), RECOVERED by NE-25-Ma.Jones at CIN 43. 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 43 for no gain (1-J.Chase). [WPA -18.5% · EPA -3.67]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:30) — (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 16 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). [WPA +11.4% · EPA +1.12]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q1 59:26) — (14:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to NE 31 for 39 yards (25-Ma.Jones). [WPA +9.6% · EPA +3.05]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Cincinnati Bengals (Q3 19:05) — (4:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 25-Ma.Jones at NE 31. 25-Ma.Jones for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-9-M.Judon was injured during the play. 6th defensive TD [WPA -4.1% · EPA -8.20]
• New England Patriots (Q4 6:13) — (6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington [WPA +20.0% · EPA +5.96]
• New England Patriots (Q4 1:05) — (1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, en [WPA -63.4% · EPA -5.25]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q2 34:23) — (4:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 15. 32-D.McCourty to NE 15 for no gain (34-S.Perine). NE 32-D.McCourty 34th career interception, [WPA -5.0% · EPA -3.89]

Quarterback report card

J.Burrow led all passers in efficiency for Cincinnati Bengals, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) · 58 dropbacks · 69.0% completion · +14.4% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +5.97 total EPA
• M.Jones (New England Patriots) · 39 dropbacks · 53.8% completion · +4.0% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +3.15 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Cincinnati Bengals generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.06 vs -0.15), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Cincinnati Bengals: 12 drives, -5.54 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, -10.88 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Cincinnati Bengals leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Burrow (CIN) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Jones (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Cincinnati Bengals TD (+6) — Q1 57:31 · NE 9 · Score 6-0
   (12:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Cincinnati Bengals TD (+6) — Q1 50:23 · NE 23 · Score 12-0
   (5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 16-T.Irwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Cincinnati Bengals FG (+3) — Q2 44:54 · NE 10 · Score 15-0
   (14:54) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
4. Cincinnati Bengals TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · NE 4 · Score 21-0
   (:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 16-T.Irwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Cincinnati Bengals XP (+1) — Q2 30:14 · NE 15 · Score 22-0
   2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 19:05 · NE 42 · Score 22-6
   (4:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 25-Ma.Jones at NE 31. 25-Ma.Jones for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-9-M.Judon was i
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 13:06 · CIN 5 · Score 22-12
   (13:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 6:13 · CIN 48 · Score 22-18
   (6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washingt