Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: 2011 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-25, the Green Bay Packers took care of business against the Chicago Bears, pulling away with a 35–21 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. McCown (Chicago Bears) paced the passing game, with +11.01 total EPA, and +7.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +24.74 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+12.2% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (10:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +24.74 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
2. 2 J. McCown · Chicago Bears · Passing · +11.01 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Nelson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +9.08 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Jones · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +6.13 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Bell · Chicago Bears · Rushing · +4.27 total EPA · 23 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
6. 6 K. Davis · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +3.58 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Williams · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +3.49 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Bell · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +3.12 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — J. Finley (A. Rodgers pass) (Q1 55:29)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Jones (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 30:18)
• Chicago Bears — K. Bell (Q3 26:41)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q3 25:11)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Jones (A. Rodgers pass) (Q3 16:57)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 14:57)
• Chicago Bears — K. Davis (J. McCown pass) (Q4 7:59)

Field goals

• Chicago Bears — R. Gould (Q2 32:00)
• Chicago Bears — R. Gould (Q4 1:15)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 7–0. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CHI 2 (Q1 55:29) — (10:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-J.Finley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CHI 2 (Q1 55:26) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 7–3. Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the GB 17 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh. Penalty on GB-24-J.Bush, Defensive Offside, declined.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CHI 2 (Q2 30:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CHI 2 (Q2 30:16) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The third quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 14–7. Chicago Bears found the end zone from the GB 1 (Q3 26:41); Chicago Bears added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q3 26:35) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CHI 55 (Q3 25:11) — (10:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CHI 2 (Q3 25:02) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CHI 7 (Q3 16:57) — (1:57) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CHI 2 (Q3 16:54) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The fourth quarter: Chicago Bears won the period 11–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CHI 2 (Q4 14:57) — (14:57) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CHI 2 (Q4 14:53) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; Chicago Bears found the end zone from the GB 1 (Q4 7:59) — (7:59) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 87-K.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Chicago Bears registered a safety from the GB 2 (Q4 7:54) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-J.McCown rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the GB 12 (Q4 1:15) — (1:15) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (Q3 25:11) — (10:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.2% · EPA +4.89]
• Chicago Bears (Q2 38:22) — (8:22) 15-J.McCown pass short right intended for 44-T.Clutts INTERCEPTED by 52-C.Matthews at GB 24. 52-C.Matthews to GB 26 for 2 yards (32-K.Bell). [WPA -11.7% · EPA -5.10]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 57:56) — (12:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 25-R.Grant to CHI 27 for 32 yards (92-S.Paea; 27-M.Wright). [WPA +8.8% · EPA +2.31]
• Chicago Bears (Q1 49:21) — (4:21) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh. [WPA -8.1% · EPA -3.75]
• Chicago Bears (Q3 27:30) — (12:30) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 80-E.Bennett to GB 1 for 49 yards (26-C.Peprah). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +5.11]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Chicago Bears (Q3 27:30) — (12:30) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 80-E.Bennett to GB 1 for 49 yards (26-C.Peprah). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +5.11]
• Chicago Bears (Q2 38:22) — (8:22) 15-J.McCown pass short right intended for 44-T.Clutts INTERCEPTED by 52-C.Matthews at GB 24. 52-C.Matthews to GB 26 for 2 yards (32-K.Bell). [WPA -11.7% · EPA -5.10]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 25:11) — (10:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.2% · EPA +4.89]
• Chicago Bears (Q1 49:21) — (4:21) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh. [WPA -8.1% · EPA -3.75]

Quarterback report card

J.McCown led all passers in efficiency for Chicago Bears, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.McCown (Chicago Bears) · 36 dropbacks · 52.8% completion · +7.6% CPOE · +0.31 EPA/play · +11.01 total EPA
• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 33 dropbacks · 63.6% completion · +12.1% CPOE · +0.75 EPA/play · +24.74 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Green Bay Packers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.32 vs +0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Chicago Bears: 10 drives, +11.28 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 10 drives, +22.02 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Green Bay Packers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. McCown (CHI) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• A. Rodgers (GB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 55:29 · CHI 2 · Score 0-6
   (10:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-J.Finley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 55:26 · CHI 2 · Score 0-7
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
3. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q2 32:00 · GB 17 · Score 3-7
   (2:00) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh. Penalty on GB-24-J.Bush, Defensive Offside, declined.
4. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 30:18 · CHI 2 · Score 3-13
   (:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 30:16 · CHI 2 · Score 3-14
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
6. Chicago Bears TD (+6) — Q3 26:41 · GB 1 · Score 9-14
   (11:41) 60-L.Louis reported in as eligible. 32-K.Bell left end to GB 1 for no gain (26-C.Peprah). FUMBLES (26-C.Peprah), recovered by CHI-70-E.Williams at GB -1
7. Chicago Bears XP (+1) — Q3 26:35 · GB 2 · Score 10-14
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh.
8. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 25:11 · CHI 55 · Score 10-20
   (10:11) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q3 25:02 · CHI 2 · Score 10-21
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
10. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 16:57 · CHI 7 · Score 10-27
    (1:57) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q3 16:54 · CHI 2 · Score 10-28
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
12. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 14:57 · CHI 2 · Score 10-34
    (14:57) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 14:53 · CHI 2 · Score 10-35
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
14. Chicago Bears TD (+6) — Q4 7:59 · GB 1 · Score 16-35
    (7:59) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 87-K.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Chicago Bears Safety (+2) — Q4 7:54 · GB 2 · Score 18-35
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-J.McCown rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
16. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q4 1:15 · GB 12 · Score 21-35
    (1:15) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-8-A.Podlesh.