Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season on 2022-01-09, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 41–17 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 31 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

S. Darnold (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with -7.22 total EPA, and +1.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.84 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-12.5% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +17.84 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Gronkowski · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +7.13 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +7.02 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Miller · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Rushing · +4.54 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.27 EPA/play
5. 5 Dj. Moore · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +2.88 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.88 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Perriman · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.83 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
7. 7 Dj. Moore · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Hubbard · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.52 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.26 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — C. Hubbard (S. Darnold pass) (Q1 52:27)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — L. Bell (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:19)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — K. Vaughn (Q3 26:59)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (T. Brady pass) (Q4 15:00)
• Carolina Panthers — R. Anderson (S. Darnold pass) (Q4 10:40)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (T. Brady pass) (Q4 7:41)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — S. Miller (Q4 4:17)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q2 41:14)
• Carolina Panthers — L. Hajrullahu (Q3 19:48)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q4 5:09)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 2 (Q1 52:27) — (7:27) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 52:22) — 3-L.Hajrullahu extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 21 (Q2 41:14) — (11:14) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-L.Bell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 30:15) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 2 (Q3 26:59) — (11:59) (No Huddle) 21-K.Vaughn up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 26:57) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the TB 17 (Q3 19:48) — (4:48) 3-L.Hajrullahu 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 24–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 3 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 14:56) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 19 (Q4 10:40) — (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Gill].; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 10:34) — 3-L.Hajrullahu extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 20 (Q4 7:41) — (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 7:34) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 22 (Q4 5:09) — (5:09) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 33 (Q4 4:17) — (4:17) 10-S.Miller right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 4:07) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 34:58) — (4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.) [WPA -12.5% · EPA -3.63]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 31:22) — (1:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to TB 45 for 37 yards (38-M.Hartsfield; 49-F.Luvu). [WPA +11.1% · EPA +1.24]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 38:46) — (8:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 20-A.Abdullah to TB 22 for 18 yards (32-M.Edwards, 9-J.Tryon). [WPA +9.8% · EPA +2.87]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 42:21) — (12:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to CAR 28 for 14 yards (27-K.Robinson). CAR-29-R.Melvin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. [WPA +9.3% · EPA +3.10]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 59:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore to CAR 48 for 20 yards (31-A.Winfield). [WPA +8.4% · EPA +2.77]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 6:38) — (6:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to CAR 33 for 1 yard (56-R.Nunez-Roches). FUMBLES (56-R.Nunez-Roches), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at CAR 36. 31-A.Winfield to CAR 27 for 9 yar [WPA -3.5% · EPA -4.82]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 10:40) — (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Gill]. [WPA +7.5% · EPA +4.53]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 4:01) — (4:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at TB 43. 26-A.Adams to CAR 40 for 17 yards (82-T.Tremble). [WPA -0.0% · EPA -4.00]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 34:58) — (4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.) [WPA -12.5% · EPA -3.63]

Quarterback report card

S.Darnold led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• S.Darnold (Carolina Panthers) · 50 dropbacks · 58.0% completion · +1.8% CPOE · -0.14 EPA/play · -7.22 total EPA
• T.Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 38 dropbacks · 76.3% completion · +13.1% CPOE · +0.47 EPA/play · +17.84 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.17 vs -0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Carolina Panthers: 12 drives, -11.55 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12 drives, +13.48 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 52:27 · TB 2 · Score 6-0
   (7:27) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 52:22 · TB 15 · Score 7-0
   3-L.Hajrullahu extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 41:14 · CAR 21 · Score 7-3
   (11:14) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · CAR 1 · Score 7-9
   (:19) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-L.Bell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:15 · CAR 15 · Score 7-10
   3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 26:59 · CAR 2 · Score 7-16
   (11:59) (No Huddle) 21-K.Vaughn up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 26:57 · CAR 15 · Score 7-17
   3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
8. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 19:48 · TB 17 · Score 10-17
   (4:48) 3-L.Hajrullahu 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · CAR 3 · Score 10-23
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 14:56 · CAR 15 · Score 10-24
    3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
11. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 10:40 · TB 19 · Score 16-24
    (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Gill].
12. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 10:34 · TB 15 · Score 17-24
    3-L.Hajrullahu extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 7:41 · CAR 20 · Score 17-30
    (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 7:34 · CAR 15 · Score 17-31
    3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q4 5:09 · CAR 22 · Score 17-34
    (5:09) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 4:17 · CAR 33 · Score 17-40
    (4:17) 10-S.Miller right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 4:07 · CAR 15 · Score 17-41
    3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.