Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season on 2023-01-08, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 10–7 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 7 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Dalton (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with -8.14 total EPA, and -9.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Johnson (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +1.97 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-29.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New Orleans Saints changed the game: (1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Johnson · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.97 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Foreman · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +1.57 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Darnold · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +1.46 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Johnson · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.32 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.32 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Trautman · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.01 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.01 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Hill · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +0.92 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Hill · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +0.89 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Shenault · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +0.76 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New Orleans Saints — C. Olave (A. Dalton pass) (Q1 56:08)
• Carolina Panthers — S. Darnold (Q3 21:52)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — E. Pineiro (Q4 0:03)
• Carolina Panthers — unlisted player (Q4 0:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 25 (Q1 56:08) — (11:08) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 20; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 56:01) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 3 (Q3 21:52); Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q3 21:45) — 4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker..

The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 6–0. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 24 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal (Q4 0:00) — END GAME.

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New Orleans Saints (Q4 1:24) — (1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. [WPA -29.5% · EPA -3.30]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen at CAR 49. 25-D.Sorensen pushed ob at CAR 35 for 14 yards (12-S.Smith). [WPA -29.3% · EPA -3.50]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. [WPA +22.1% · EPA +0.57]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:40) — (:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at NO 2. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 43 for 41 yards (88-T.Marshall). CAR-63-A.Corbett was injured during the play [WPA -15.2% · EPA -4.57]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-T.Marshall to NO 24 for 21 yards (23-M.Lattimore; 32-T.Mathieu). Pass 12, YAC 9 [WPA +14.4% · EPA +0.80]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:40) — (:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at NO 2. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 43 for 41 yards (88-T.Marshall). CAR-63-A.Corbett was injured during the play [WPA -15.2% · EPA -4.57]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 37:21) — (7:21) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to CAR 23 for -3 yards (49-F.Luvu). [WPA -9.6% · EPA -4.30]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 44:20) — (14:20) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. [WPA -7.2% · EPA -3.56]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen at CAR 49. 25-D.Sorensen pushed ob at CAR 35 for 14 yards (12-S.Smith). [WPA -29.3% · EPA -3.50]

Quarterback report card

A.Dalton led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Dalton (New Orleans Saints) · 26 dropbacks · 57.7% completion · -9.9% CPOE · -0.31 EPA/play · -8.14 total EPA
• S.Darnold (Carolina Panthers) · 21 dropbacks · 23.8% completion · -21.4% CPOE · -0.51 EPA/play · -10.66 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Carolina Panthers generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.18 vs -0.23), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, -12.20 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 11 drives, -16.65 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Johnson (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Dalton (NO) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• S. Darnold (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 56:08 · CAR 25 · Score 0-6
   (11:08) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 20
2. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 56:01 · CAR 15 · Score 0-7
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 21:52 · NO 3 · Score 6-7
   (6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left tackle to NO 1 for 2 yards (32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (32-T.Mathieu), recovered by CAR-73-M.Jordan at NO -3. TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q3 21:45 · NO 15 · Score 7-7
   4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
5. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · NO 24 · Score 10-7
   (:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
6. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q4 0:00 · Score 10-7
   END GAME