Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-30, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 33–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Allen (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with +21.68 total EPA, and -3.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, K. Allen (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +21.68 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+7.8% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 K. Allen · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +21.68 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.64 EPA/play
2. 2 I. Thomas · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.16 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Samuel · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.13 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.03 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Moore · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.75 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Wright · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.32 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
6. 6 C. McCaffrey · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.15 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.15 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Washington · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +1.65 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
8. 8 C. McCaffrey · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +1.26 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — K. Allen (Q1 55:17)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Artis-Payne (Q1 47:14)
• Carolina Panthers — I. Thomas (K. Allen pass) (Q2 32:06)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Samuel (K. Allen pass) (Q3 18:55)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Smith (T. Bridgewater pass) (Q4 13:36)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Hill (Q4 3:53)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — C. Catanzaro (Q2 30:03)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Catanzaro (Q4 8:22)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 13–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 1 (Q1 55:17) — (10:17) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 7-K.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 55:04) — 4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 15 (Q1 47:14) — (2:14) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 10–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 8 (Q2 32:06) — (2:06) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 80-I.Thomas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 32:00) — 4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 4 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 4-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 53 (Q3 18:55); Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q3 18:46) — 4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 14–3. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 9 (Q4 13:36) — (13:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 13:28) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 33 (Q4 8:22) — (8:22) 4-C.Catanzaro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 9 (Q4 3:53) — (3:53) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO QB #7 T.Hill in game as QB; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 3:47) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q1 48:33) — (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play. [WPA +7.8% · EPA +4.05]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 58:44) — (13:44) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at NO 41 for 22 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass -5, YAC 27 [WPA +6.4% · EPA +2.15]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 38:16) — (8:16) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore pushed ob at NO 42 for 38 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [24-V.Bell]. Pass 35, YAC 3 [WPA +5.8% · EPA +3.50]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 40:13) — (10:13) 22-M.Ingram left end to CAR 10 for -1 yards (90-J.Peppers). [WPA -5.6% · EPA -1.89]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 55:29) — (10:29) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass [WPA +5.5% · EPA +1.72]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New Orleans Saints (Q4 6:57) — (6:57) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 82-B.Watson INTERCEPTED by 42-C.Jones at CAR 43. 42-C.Jones to CAR 48 for 5 yards (82-B.Watson). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -4.91]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 18:55) — (3:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 50, YAC 3 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The [WPA +0.1% · EPA +4.51]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 48:33) — (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play. [WPA +7.8% · EPA +4.05]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 39:51) — (9:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Smith (41-C.Munnerlyn). [WPA -3.9% · EPA -3.66]

Quarterback report card

K.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Allen (Carolina Panthers) · 34 dropbacks · 47.1% completion · -3.4% CPOE · +0.64 EPA/play · +21.68 total EPA
• T.Bridgewater (New Orleans Saints) · 28 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -4.3% CPOE · -0.32 EPA/play · -9.02 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Carolina Panthers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.18 vs -0.14), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 10 drives, +15.12 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 10 drives, -9.85 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• K. Allen (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• K. Allen (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Bridgewater (NO) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 55:17 · NO 1 · Score 6-0
   (10:17) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 7-K.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 55:04 · NO 15 · Score 7-0
   4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 47:14 · NO 15 · Score 13-0
   (2:14) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 32:06 · NO 8 · Score 19-0
   (2:06) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 80-I.Thomas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0
5. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 32:00 · NO 15 · Score 20-0
   4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
6. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · NO 4 · Score 23-0
   (:03) 4-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
7. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 18:55 · NO 53 · Score 29-0
   (3:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 50, YAC 3 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by conta
8. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q3 18:46 · NO 15 · Score 30-0
   4-C.Catanzaro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
9. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 13:36 · CAR 9 · Score 30-6
   (13:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0
10. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 13:28 · CAR 15 · Score 30-7
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
11. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q4 8:22 · NO 33 · Score 33-7
    (8:22) 4-C.Catanzaro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
12. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 3:53 · CAR 9 · Score 33-13
    (3:53) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO QB #7 T.Hill in game as QB
13. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 3:47 · CAR 15 · Score 33-14
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.