Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2016 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-27, the Las Vegas Raiders took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 35–32 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 18 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) paced the passing game, with +11.03 total EPA, and +5.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.03 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+21.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +11.03 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Crabtree · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +6.04 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Ginn · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +5.43 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Stewart · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +4.34 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Walford · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +4.10 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.03 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Roberts · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +3.83 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Holton · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.96 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Olsen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +1.97 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Roberts (D. Carr pass) (Q1 49:54)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Newton (Q1 48:16)
• Las Vegas Raiders — L. Murray (Q2 42:52)
• Las Vegas Raiders — K. Mack (Q2 31:04)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Stewart (Q3 25:37)
• Carolina Panthers — T. Ginn (C. Newton pass) (Q3 22:53)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Stewart (Q3 16:51)
• Carolina Panthers — K. Benjamin (C. Newton pass) (Q4 13:34)
• Las Vegas Raiders — C. Walford (D. Carr pass) (Q4 8:42)

Field goals

• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 36:53)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q4 1:47)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the CAR 2 (Q1 49:54) — (4:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-27-R.McClain was injured during the play.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 49:48) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the LV 3 (Q1 48:16) — (3:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q1 48:10) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

The second quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 17–0. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the CAR 4 (Q2 42:52) — (12:52) 28-L.Murray left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 42:48) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the CAR 5 (Q2 36:53) — (6:53) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the LV 87 (Q2 31:04); Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 30:59) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 18–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the LV 1 (Q3 25:37) — (10:37) 28-J.Stewart left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the LV 88 (Q3 22:53) — (7:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the LV 3 (Q3 16:51) — (1:51) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 11–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the LV 44 (Q4 13:34) — (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q4 13:26) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the CAR 12 (Q4 8:42) — (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 88-C.Walford for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders registered a safety from the CAR 2 (Q4 8:37); Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the CAR 5 (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 13:34) — (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.8% · EPA +4.91]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 1:00) — (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 47 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LV-52-K.Mack at CAR 45. 52-K.Mack to CAR 45 for no gain (79-C.Scott). [WPA -19.2% · EPA -2.08]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 4:15) — (4:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-M.Crabtree to CAR 37 for 49 yards (56-A.Klein) [95-C.Johnson]. Penalty on CAR-56-A.Klein, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +18.8% · EPA +4.20]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 22:53) — (7:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.6% · EPA +8.26]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 19:40) — (4:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 89-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis [96-W.Horton] at CAR 41. 58-T.Davis ran ob at LV 28 for 31 yards (66-G.Jackson). [WPA -17.4% · EPA -6.14]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 22:53) — (7:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.6% · EPA +8.26]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 31:04) — (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 43-F.Whittaker INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack at CAR 6. 52-K.Mack for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-70-T.Turner, Illegal Formation, declined. [WPA -9.8% · EPA -7.07]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 19:40) — (4:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 89-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis [96-W.Horton] at CAR 41. 58-T.Davis ran ob at LV 28 for 31 yards (66-G.Jackson). [WPA -17.4% · EPA -6.14]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 29:18) — (14:18) 71-M.Watson reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 31, RECOVERED by CAR-58-T.Davis at LV 30. LV-4-D.Carr was injured during the play. [WPA -4.2% · EPA -5.88]

Quarterback report card

D.Carr led all passers in efficiency for Las Vegas Raiders, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 42 dropbacks · 61.9% completion · +5.3% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +11.03 total EPA
• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 38 dropbacks · 36.8% completion · -6.7% CPOE · -0.01 EPA/play · -0.50 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Carolina Panthers -0.01, Las Vegas Raiders -0.01) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Carolina Panthers: 14 drives, -0.61 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 15 drives, -0.96 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Las Vegas Raiders leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Carr (LV) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Newton (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q1 49:54 · CAR 2 · Score 0-6
   (4:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-27-R.McClain was injured during the play.
2. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q1 49:48 · CAR 15 · Score 0-7
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 48:16 · LV 3 · Score 6-7
   (3:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 48:10 · LV 15 · Score 7-7
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
5. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 42:52 · CAR 4 · Score 7-13
   (12:52) 28-L.Murray left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 42:48 · CAR 15 · Score 7-14
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
7. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 36:53 · CAR 5 · Score 7-17
   (6:53) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
8. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 31:04 · LV 87 · Score 7-23
   (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 43-F.Whittaker INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack at CAR 6. 52-K.Mack for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-70-
9. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 30:59 · CAR 15 · Score 7-24
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
10. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 25:37 · LV 1 · Score 13-24
    (10:37) 28-J.Stewart left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 22:53 · LV 88 · Score 19-24
    (7:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 16:51 · LV 3 · Score 25-24
    (1:51) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 13:34 · LV 44 · Score 31-24
    (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 13:26 · LV 15 · Score 32-24
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
15. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 8:42 · CAR 12 · Score 32-30
    (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 88-C.Walford for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Las Vegas Raiders Safety (+2) — Q4 8:37 · CAR 2 · Score 32-32
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 10-S.Roberts is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. #71 M.Watson reported as an Eligible Receiver.
17. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q4 1:47 · CAR 5 · Score 32-35
    (1:47) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.