Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions: 2011 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-11-20, the Detroit Lions took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 49–35 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 31 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Newton (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with -4.15 total EPA, and -2.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.43 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-22.0% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (2:48) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Levy [90-N.Suh] at DET 14. 54-D.Levy to DET 21 for 7 yards (17-L.Naanee).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +18.43 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Smith · Detroit Lions · Rushing · +8.73 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
3. 3 N. Burleson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +7.54 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Stewart · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +7.46 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Pettigrew · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +4.45 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Newton · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +4.31 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Smith · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +4.27 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Scheffler · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.76 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — S. Smith (C. Newton pass) (Q1 45:40)
• Detroit Lions — K. Smith (M. Stafford pass) (Q2 44:14)
• Carolina Panthers — K. Pilares (Q2 44:04)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Newton (Q2 39:39)
• Detroit Lions — T. Young (M. Stafford pass) (Q2 33:00)
• Detroit Lions — N. Burleson (M. Stafford pass) (Q3 25:34)
• Detroit Lions — T. Scheffler (M. Stafford pass) (Q3 21:02)
• Detroit Lions — K. Smith (Q4 8:05)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Newton (Q4 5:03)
• Detroit Lions — B. Pettigrew (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 2:36)
• Detroit Lions — K. Smith (Q4 2:06)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — O. Mare (Q1 48:59)
• Carolina Panthers — O. Mare (Q2 30:05)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 10–0. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the DET 9 (Q1 48:59) — (3:59) 10-O.Mare 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the DET 15 (Q1 45:40) — (:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 89-S.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-21-E.Wright, Illegal Contact, declined.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q1 45:35) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 17–14. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 28 (Q2 44:14) — (14:14) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 30-K.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q2 44:04) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the DET 35 (Q2 44:04) — 4-J.Hanson kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to CAR -1. 81-K.Pilares for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q2 43:50) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the DET 11 (Q2 39:39) — (9:39) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q2 39:32) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 3 (Q2 33:00) — (3:00) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 16-T.Young for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q2 32:57) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the DET 14 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 10-O.Mare 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The third quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 14–0. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 16 (Q3 25:34) — (10:34) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 13-N.Burleson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q3 25:28) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 17 (Q3 21:02) — (6:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 85-T.Scheffler for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q3 20:57) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham..

The fourth quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 21–8. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 4 (Q4 8:05) — (8:05) (Shotgun) 30-K.Smith up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 8:02) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the DET 6 (Q4 5:03) — (5:03) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers registered a safety from the DET 2 (Q4 4:59) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Newton pass to 89-S.Smith is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 7 (Q4 2:36) — (2:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-B.Pettigrew for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 2:32) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the CAR 19 (Q4 2:06) — (2:06) 30-K.Smith right tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 2:00) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 17:48) — (2:48) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Levy [90-N.Suh] at DET 14. 54-D.Levy to DET 21 for 7 yards (17-L.Naanee). [WPA -22.0% · EPA -5.02]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 21:02) — (6:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 85-T.Scheffler for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.8% · EPA +3.46]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 2:36) — (2:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-B.Pettigrew for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.2% · EPA +3.00]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 44:04) — 4-J.Hanson kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to CAR -1. 81-K.Pilares for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +6.41]
• Detroit Lions (Q1 47:37) — (2:37) 34-K.Williams left tackle to DET 28 for -1 yards (57-J.Senn). FUMBLES (57-J.Senn), RECOVERED by CAR-68-A.Neblett at DET 29. 68-A.Neblett to DET 29 for no gain (67-R.Sims). [WPA -12.8% · EPA -5.26]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 44:04) — 4-J.Hanson kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to CAR -1. 81-K.Pilares for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +6.41]
• Detroit Lions (Q1 47:37) — (2:37) 34-K.Williams left tackle to DET 28 for -1 yards (57-J.Senn). FUMBLES (57-J.Senn), RECOVERED by CAR-68-A.Neblett at DET 29. 68-A.Neblett to DET 29 for no gain (67-R.Sims). [WPA -12.8% · EPA -5.26]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 17:48) — (2:48) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Levy [90-N.Suh] at DET 14. 54-D.Levy to DET 21 for 7 yards (17-L.Naanee). [WPA -22.0% · EPA -5.02]
• Detroit Lions (Q1 53:45) — (8:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Godfrey (23-S.Martin) at CAR -3. 30-C.Godfrey to CAR 18 for 21 yards (13-N.Burleson). [WPA -12.3% · EPA -4.69]

Quarterback report card

C.Newton led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 45 dropbacks · 48.9% completion · -2.5% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -4.15 total EPA
• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 42 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +12.7% CPOE · +0.44 EPA/play · +18.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Detroit Lions held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs +0.06), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Carolina Panthers: 13 drives, +5.20 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Detroit Lions: 13 drives, +17.54 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Detroit Lions leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Stafford (DET) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q1 48:59 · DET 9 · Score 3-0
   (3:59) 10-O.Mare 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
2. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 45:40 · DET 15 · Score 9-0
   (:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 89-S.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-21-E.Wright, Illegal Contact, declined.
3. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 45:35 · DET 2 · Score 10-0
   10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
4. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 44:14 · CAR 28 · Score 10-6
   (14:14) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 30-K.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q2 44:04 · CAR 2 · Score 10-7
   4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
6. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 44:04 · DET 35 · Score 16-7
   4-J.Hanson kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to CAR -1. 81-K.Pilares for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 43:50 · DET 2 · Score 17-7
   10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
8. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 39:39 · DET 11 · Score 23-7
   (9:39) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 39:32 · DET 2 · Score 24-7
   10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
10. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 33:00 · CAR 3 · Score 24-13
    (3:00) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 16-T.Young for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q2 32:57 · CAR 2 · Score 24-14
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
12. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · DET 14 · Score 27-14
    (:05) 10-O.Mare 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
13. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q3 25:34 · CAR 16 · Score 27-20
    (10:34) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 13-N.Burleson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q3 25:28 · CAR 2 · Score 27-21
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
15. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q3 21:02 · CAR 17 · Score 27-27
    (6:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 85-T.Scheffler for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q3 20:57 · CAR 2 · Score 27-28
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
17. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 8:05 · CAR 4 · Score 27-34
    (8:05) (Shotgun) 30-K.Smith up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 8:02 · CAR 2 · Score 27-35
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
19. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 5:03 · DET 6 · Score 33-35
    (5:03) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20. Carolina Panthers Safety (+2) — Q4 4:59 · DET 2 · Score 35-35
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Newton pass to 89-S.Smith is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
21. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 2:36 · CAR 7 · Score 35-41
    (2:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-B.Pettigrew for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 2:32 · CAR 2 · Score 35-42
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
23. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 2:06 · CAR 19 · Score 35-48
    (2:06) 30-K.Smith right tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 2:00 · CAR 2 · Score 35-49
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.