Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: 2016 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season on 2017-01-01, the New York Jets took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 30–10 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (New York Jets) paced the passing game, with +5.35 total EPA, and +6.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Fitzpatrick (New York Jets) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.35 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+11.5% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New York Jets changed the game: (14:02) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa to BUF 24 for 51 yards (20-C.Graham).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Fitzpatrick · New York Jets · Passing · +5.35 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Woods · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.46 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
3. 3 Q. Enunwa · New York Jets · Receiving · +2.68 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Marshall · New York Jets · Receiving · +2.10 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Powell · New York Jets · Receiving · +1.52 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
6. 6 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.11 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Wilds · New York Jets · Receiving · +0.90 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Gillislee · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.88 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New York Jets — B. Powell (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 39:32)
• New York Jets — J. Marshall (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q3 19:08)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q4 3:21)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Gillislee (Q4 0:43)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 31:48)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q2 30:03)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q3 15:06)
• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q4 3:24)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: New York Jets won the period 10–3. New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q2 39:32) — (9:32) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 29-B.Powell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 39:28) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NYJ 16 (Q2 31:48) — (1:48) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the BUF 12 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards..

The third quarter: New York Jets won the period 10–0. New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q3 19:08); New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 19:03) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the BUF 18 (Q3 15:06) — (:06) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards..

The fourth quarter: New York Jets won the period 10–7. New York Jets connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q4 3:24) — (3:24) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; New York Jets found the end zone from the NYJ 35 (Q4 3:21) — 2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to BUF 0. RECOVERED by NYJ-36-D.Middleton, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 3:21) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 1 (Q4 0:43) — (:43) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 15 (Q4 0:39) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New York Jets (Q2 44:02) — (14:02) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa to BUF 24 for 51 yards (20-C.Graham). [WPA +11.5% · EPA +2.78]
• New York Jets (Q1 46:51) — (1:51) 79-B.Qvale and 64-C.Watts reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell up the middle to BUF 14 for no gain (52-P.Brown). [WPA -9.1% · EPA -3.49]
• New York Jets (Q3 22:41) — (7:41) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard to BUF 11 for -1 yards (99-M.Dareus; 52-P.Brown). [WPA -9.0% · EPA -3.81]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 44:13) — (14:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 25 for -2 yards (57-L.Alexander). [WPA +7.4% · EPA +0.39]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 20:37) — (5:37) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel sacked at BUF 14 for -12 yards (44-C.Lemonier). New York Jets challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel sacked at BU [WPA -7.3% · EPA -4.71]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 3:21) — 2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to BUF 0. RECOVERED by NYJ-36-D.Middleton, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -0.1% · EPA -7.98]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 5:16) — (5:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Jones pass short right intended for 17-J.Hunter INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Revis (25-C.Pryor) at NYJ 46. 24-D.Revis to BUF 3 for 51 yards (71-C.Kouandjio). [WPA -0.4% · EPA -7.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 17:41) — (2:41) 31-J.Williams up the middle to BUF 36 for -4 yards (91-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (91-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by NYJ-91-S.Richardson at BUF 32. 91-S.Richardson to BUF 32 for no gain (31-J.Williams [WPA -5.5% · EPA -5.75]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:47) — (2:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Jones pass deep right to 17-J.Hunter to NYJ 1 for 64 yards (45-R.Miles). [WPA +0.0% · EPA +5.05]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for New York Jets, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (New York Jets) · 31 dropbacks · 64.5% completion · +6.2% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +5.35 total EPA
• E.Manuel (Buffalo Bills) · 24 dropbacks · 37.5% completion · -15.7% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -6.25 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New York Jets held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.14 vs -0.42), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, -33.39 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 14 drives, -10.37 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New York Jets leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• R. Fitzpatrick (New York Jets) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Fitzpatrick (NYJ) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• E. Manuel (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 39:32 · BUF 2 · Score 0-6
   (9:32) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 29-B.Powell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 39:28 · BUF 15 · Score 0-7
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 31:48 · NYJ 16 · Score 3-7
   (1:48) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
4. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · BUF 12 · Score 3-10
   (:03) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
5. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 19:08 · BUF 6 · Score 3-16
   (4:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 89-J.Marshall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Uphel
6. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 19:03 · BUF 15 · Score 3-17
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
7. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q3 15:06 · BUF 18 · Score 3-20
   (:06) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
8. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q4 3:24 · BUF 7 · Score 3-23
   (3:24) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
9. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 3:21 · NYJ 35 · Score 3-29
   2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to BUF 0. RECOVERED by NYJ-36-D.Middleton, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q4 3:21 · BUF 15 · Score 3-30
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 0:43 · NYJ 1 · Score 9-30
    (:43) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 0:39 · NYJ 15 · Score 10-30
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.