Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2024 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season on 2025-01-05, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 23–16 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Milton (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +12.25 total EPA, and +17.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Milton (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.25 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.6% win probability) landed in the third quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Milton · New England Patriots · Passing · +12.25 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Boutte · New England Patriots · Receiving · +9.71 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.39 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Trubisky · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +4.73 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.65 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Douglas · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.48 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Bell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.49 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Gilliam · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.22 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Baker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.19 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — J. Milton (Q1 49:28)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Davis (M. Trubisky pass) (Q2 42:14)
• New England Patriots — K. Boutte (J. Milton pass) (Q2 39:22)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q3 22:59)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 34:44)
• New England Patriots — J. Slye (Q3 16:04)
• New England Patriots — J. Slye (Q4 8:58)
• New England Patriots — J. Slye (Q4 2:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q1 49:28) — (4:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 19-J.Milton 1st NFL TD.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 49:25) — 13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q2 42:14) — (12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 42:09) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 48 (Q2 39:22) — (9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 39:10) — 13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 31 (Q2 34:44) — (4:44) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q3 22:59) — (7:59) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 23 (Q3 16:04) — (1:04) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 6–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 24 (Q4 8:58) — (8:58) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 31 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q3 25:22) — (10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16. [WPA -18.6% · EPA -5.72]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 42:14) — (12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.5% · EPA +3.88]
• New England Patriots (Q2 39:22) — (9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass. [WPA +12.4% · EPA +4.32]
• New England Patriots (Q3 19:51) — (4:51) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton scrambles up the middle to BUF 42 for 9 yards (44-J.Andreessen). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeou [WPA +10.3% · EPA +1.79]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 7:27) — (7:27) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right to 1-C.Samuel to BUF 48 for 11 yards (35-M.Battle). [WPA +9.6% · EPA +1.54]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q3 25:22) — (10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16. [WPA -18.6% · EPA -5.72]
• New England Patriots (Q2 39:22) — (9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass. [WPA +12.4% · EPA +4.32]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 42:14) — (12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.5% · EPA +3.88]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 56:50) — (11:50) 11-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 45, and recovers at NE 45. 11-M.Trubisky to NE 45 for no gain (91-D.Wise). [WPA -6.7% · EPA -3.51]

Quarterback report card

J.Milton led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Milton (New England Patriots) · 34 dropbacks · 64.7% completion · +17.1% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +12.25 total EPA
• M.Trubisky (Buffalo Bills) · 22 dropbacks · 68.2% completion · +6.1% CPOE · +0.22 EPA/play · +4.73 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.00 vs -0.09), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -7.12 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +0.28 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Milton (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Milton (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Trubisky (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 49:28 · BUF 1 · Score 0-6
   (4:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 19-J.Milton 1st NFL TD.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 49:25 · BUF 15 · Score 0-7
   13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 42:14 · NE 2 · Score 6-7
   (12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 42:09 · NE 15 · Score 7-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 39:22 · BUF 48 · Score 7-13
   (9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 39:10 · BUF 15 · Score 7-14
   13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 34:44 · NE 31 · Score 10-14
   (4:44) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 22:59 · NE 1 · Score 16-14
   (7:59) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 16:04 · BUF 23 · Score 16-17
   (1:04) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 8:58 · BUF 24 · Score 16-20
    (8:58) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
11. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 2:00 · BUF 31 · Score 16-23
    (2:00) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.