Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2022 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-12-01, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 24–10 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Jones (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +0.56 total EPA, and -5.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.21 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+13.7% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +13.21 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.95 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
3. 3 I. McKenzie · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.51 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.90 EPA/play
4. 4 Ma. Jones · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.87 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.93 EPA/play
5. 5 N. Hines · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.88 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.44 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Thornton · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.58 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.66 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Parker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.40 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — M. Jones (Q1 49:55)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q2 45:00)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q2 35:34)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (Q4 14:34)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 53:06)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q4 1:57)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 30 (Q1 53:06) — (8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 48 (Q1 49:55) — (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 49:46) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 8 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 44:56) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 8 (Q2 35:34) — (5:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 35:27) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 14:34) — (14:34) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 14:31) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 21 (Q4 1:57) — (1:57) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 49:55) — (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +4.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 56:23) — (11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 20-N.Hines pushed ob at NE 28 for 21 yards (55-J.Uche; 30-M.Wilson) [9-M.Judon]. [WPA +11.5% · EPA +3.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 47:34) — (2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 13-G.Davis. PENALTY on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at BUF 35 - No Play. [WPA +9.5% · EPA +2.78]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 35:34) — (5:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +8.2% · EPA +3.15]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.2% · EPA +2.27]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q1 49:55) — (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +4.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 31:31) — (1:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at NE 47 for -6 yards (55-J.Uche). FUMBLES (55-J.Uche) [55-J.Uche], RECOVERED by NE-9-M.Judon at NE 41. 9-M.Judon to NE 42 for 1 yard (17-J.Allen, 88-D.Knox). [WPA -5.8% · EPA -3.48]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 56:23) — (11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 20-N.Hines pushed ob at NE 28 for 21 yards (55-J.Uche; 30-M.Wilson) [9-M.Judon]. [WPA +11.5% · EPA +3.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 35:34) — (5:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +8.2% · EPA +3.15]

Quarterback report card

M.Jones led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Jones (New England Patriots) · 41 dropbacks · 53.7% completion · -5.1% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.56 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 40 dropbacks · 55.0% completion · +3.5% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +13.21 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.13 vs -0.10), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +11.41 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 9 drives, -6.52 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Jones (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 53:06 · NE 30 · Score 3-0
   (8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 49:55 · BUF 48 · Score 3-6
   (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 49:46 · BUF 15 · Score 3-7
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · NE 8 · Score 9-7
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 44:56 · NE 15 · Score 10-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 35:34 · NE 8 · Score 16-7
   (5:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 35:27 · NE 15 · Score 17-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 14:34 · NE 1 · Score 23-7
   (14:34) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 14:31 · NE 15 · Score 24-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 1:57 · BUF 21 · Score 24-10
    (1:57) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.