Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2020 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season on 2020-12-28, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 38–9 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +21.04 total EPA, and +17.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +21.04 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+13.1% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:51) 17-J.Allen right end pushed ob at NE 21 for 22 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on NE-70-A.Butler, Defensive Offside, declined.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +21.04 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +11.44 total EPA · 11 snaps · +1.04 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.15 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.29 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.57 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +3.12 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.12 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Neal · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.12 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.12 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Smith · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.99 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play
8. 8 Z. Moss · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.62 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — Z. Moss (Q2 44:56)
• New England Patriots — C. Newton (Q2 40:50)
• Buffalo Bills — L. Smith (J. Allen pass) (Q2 35:37)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q2 34:05)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q3 26:35)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q4 13:24)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q1 57:49)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 51:46)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 27 (Q1 57:49) — (12:49) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 4 (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 21–6. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q2 44:56) — (14:56) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Moss up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 44:50) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 9 (Q2 40:50); Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q2 35:37) — (5:37) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 85-L.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 35:32) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 50 (Q2 34:05) — (4:05) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 33:55) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q3 26:35) — (11:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 26:28) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 8 (Q4 13:24) — (13:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 13:16) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:51) — (:51) 17-J.Allen right end pushed ob at NE 21 for 22 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on NE-70-A.Butler, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +13.1% · EPA +3.82]
• New England Patriots (Q2 40:50) — (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-1 Newton 12th rush TD of season, ties franchise record for rush TD by a QB in a season (Grogan, 1976). NE-1 New [WPA +8.4% · EPA +2.26]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:55) — (3:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 46-J.Johnson. 46-J.Johnson pass short right to 33-S.Neal to BUF 48 for 13 yards (31-J.Jones). [WPA +8.3% · EPA +3.12]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 38:32) — (8:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 31 for 12 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +3.03]
• New England Patriots (Q2 40:39) — 6-N.Folk extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. [WPA -7.6% · EPA -0.93]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 34:05) — (4:05) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.3% · EPA +4.71]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:51) — (:51) 17-J.Allen right end pushed ob at NE 21 for 22 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on NE-70-A.Butler, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +13.1% · EPA +3.82]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:55) — (3:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 46-J.Johnson. 46-J.Johnson pass short right to 33-S.Neal to BUF 48 for 13 yards (31-J.Jones). [WPA +8.3% · EPA +3.12]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 38:32) — (8:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 31 for 12 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +3.03]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 39 dropbacks · 69.2% completion · +17.2% CPOE · +0.54 EPA/play · +21.04 total EPA
• C.Newton (New England Patriots) · 15 dropbacks · 33.3% completion · -18.2% CPOE · -0.19 EPA/play · -2.80 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.36 vs -0.05), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +31.34 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 9 drives, -3.44 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Newton (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 57:49 · BUF 27 · Score 0-3
   (12:49) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 51:46 · NE 4 · Score 3-3
   (6:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 44:56 · NE 5 · Score 9-3
   (14:56) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Moss up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 44:50 · NE 15 · Score 10-3
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 40:50 · BUF 9 · Score 10-9
   (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-1 Newton 12th rush TD of season, ties franchise record for rush TD by a
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 35:37 · NE 4 · Score 16-9
   (5:37) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 85-L.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 35:32 · NE 15 · Score 17-9
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 34:05 · NE 50 · Score 23-9
   (4:05) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 33:55 · NE 15 · Score 24-9
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:35 · NE 18 · Score 30-9
    (11:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 26:28 · NE 15 · Score 31-9
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 13:24 · NE 8 · Score 37-9
    (13:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 13:16 · NE 15 · Score 38-9
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.