Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2019 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-21, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 24–17 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 11 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +3.62 total EPA, and +11.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Edelman (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.06 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+24.7% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.06 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Brown · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.95 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.99 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +3.62 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +2.93 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Dawkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.86 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.86 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Michel · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.87 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
7. 7 N. Harry · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.79 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Beasley · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.72 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — M. LaCosse (T. Brady pass) (Q1 46:56)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Dawkins (J. Allen pass) (Q2 30:06)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Brown (J. Allen pass) (Q3 22:34)
• New England Patriots — R. Burkhead (Q4 5:11)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q1 54:21)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q2 35:07)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q3 24:58)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q4 10:48)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 17 (Q1 54:21) — (9:21) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q1 46:56); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 46:50) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 18 (Q2 35:07) — (5:07) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 30:01) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 33 (Q3 24:58) — (9:58) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 53 (Q3 22:34) — (7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 22:25) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 11–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 2 (Q4 10:48) — (10:48) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 5:11); New England Patriots registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 5:06) — NE 52-Roberts eligible TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 11-J.Edelman is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:34) — (7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy]. [WPA +24.7% · EPA +5.44]
• New England Patriots (Q1 57:50) — (12:50) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 34-R.Burkhead to BUF 47 for 18 yards (21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 38. 23-M.Hyde ran ob at NE 31 for 31 yards (14-M.Sanu S [WPA -16.3% · EPA -5.98]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:34) — (2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Beasley to NE 8 for 25 yards (27-J.Jackson). [WPA +13.0% · EPA +2.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:55) — (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at NE 15 for -6 yards (sack split by 54-D.Hightower and 70-A.Butler). [WPA -12.1% · EPA -1.29]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:12) — (1:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Beasley (27-J.Jackson) [58-J.Collins Sr.]. [WPA -10.5% · EPA -2.35]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q1 57:50) — (12:50) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 34-R.Burkhead to BUF 47 for 18 yards (21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 38. 23-M.Hyde ran ob at NE 31 for 31 yards (14-M.Sanu S [WPA -16.3% · EPA -5.98]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:34) — (7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy]. [WPA +24.7% · EPA +5.44]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:16) — (:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass dee [WPA +7.7% · EPA +3.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.0% · EPA +2.86]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 39 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +11.1% CPOE · +0.09 EPA/play · +3.62 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 32 dropbacks · 40.6% completion · -8.5% CPOE · +0.09 EPA/play · +2.93 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.09 vs -0.01), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -0.51 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +7.40 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Edelman (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 54:21 · NE 17 · Score 3-0
   (9:21) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 46:56 · BUF 8 · Score 3-6
   (1:56) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-M.LaCosse for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 539th career TD pass, ties P.Manning
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 46:50 · BUF 15 · Score 3-7
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
4. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 35:07 · BUF 18 · Score 3-10
   (5:07) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:06 · NE 1 · Score 9-10
   (:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:01 · NE 15 · Score 10-10
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 24:58 · BUF 33 · Score 10-13
   (9:58) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 22:34 · NE 53 · Score 16-13
   (7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy].
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 22:25 · NE 15 · Score 17-13
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 10:48 · BUF 2 · Score 17-16
    (10:48) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 5:11 · BUF 1 · Score 17-22
    (5:11) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 34-R.Burkhead right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-97-J.Phillips, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enf
12. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q4 5:06 · BUF 2 · Score 17-24
    NE 52-Roberts eligible TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 11-J.Edelman is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.