Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2008 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2008 NFL season on 2008-11-09, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 20–10 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Cassel (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +10.05 total EPA, and +3.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Cassel (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.05 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-7.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (13:58) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel sacked at BUF 44 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Stroud and 37-G.Wilson). FUMBLES (99-M.Stroud), RECOVERED by BUF-37-G.Wilson at BUF 44. 37-G.Wilson to BUF 44 for no gai

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Cassel · New England Patriots · Passing · +10.05 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.44 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.17 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.82 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Parrish · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.45 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
6. 6 L. Evans · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Green-Ellis · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.48 total EPA · 27 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Aiken · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.16 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — M. Cassel (Q1 55:46)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q4 2:00)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Hardy (T. Edwards pass) (Q4 1:46)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 43:29)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 37:09)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 23:18)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 13 (Q1 55:46) — (10:46) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 55:39) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 14 (Q2 43:29) — (13:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 7 (Q2 37:09) — (7:09) 9-R.Lindell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 19 (Q3 23:18) — (8:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) NE 50-Vrabel eligible. 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 42-Green-Ellis 4th straight game with a TD.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 1:57) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. NE 19 play scoring drive ties franchise record (9/15/02 at NYJ).; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 14 (Q4 1:46) — (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 81-J.Hardy for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 1:42) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 13:58) — (13:58) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel sacked at BUF 44 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Stroud and 37-G.Wilson). FUMBLES (99-M.Stroud), RECOVERED by BUF-37-G.Wilson at BUF 44. 37-G.Wilson to BUF 44 for no gai [WPA -7.8% · EPA -4.79]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:21) — (:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep middle intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-E.Hobbs at BUF 38. 27-E.Hobbs to BUF 34 for 4 yards (83-L.Evans). [WPA -7.3% · EPA -3.32]
• New England Patriots (Q2 32:24) — (2:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. [WPA -7.0% · EPA -2.91]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 15:45) — (:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep right intended for 84-R.Royal INTERCEPTED by 21-D.O'Neal at NE 39. 21-D.O'Neal to NE 41 for 2 yards (84-R.Royal). [WPA -5.7% · EPA -3.47]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 59:20) — (14:20) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards sacked at BUF 21 for -6 yards (93-R.Seymour). [WPA -5.6% · EPA -2.17]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q4 13:58) — (13:58) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel sacked at BUF 44 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Stroud and 37-G.Wilson). FUMBLES (99-M.Stroud), RECOVERED by BUF-37-G.Wilson at BUF 44. 37-G.Wilson to BUF 44 for no gai [WPA -7.8% · EPA -4.79]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:57) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 69 yards from NE 30 to BUF 1. 28-L.McKelvin pushed ob at NE 14 for 85 yards (24-J.Wilhite). [WPA +0.1% · EPA +3.70]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 15:45) — (:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep right intended for 84-R.Royal INTERCEPTED by 21-D.O'Neal at NE 39. 21-D.O'Neal to NE 41 for 2 yards (84-R.Royal). [WPA -5.7% · EPA -3.47]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:21) — (:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep middle intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-E.Hobbs at BUF 38. 27-E.Hobbs to BUF 34 for 4 yards (83-L.Evans). [WPA -7.3% · EPA -3.32]

Quarterback report card

M.Cassel led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Cassel (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +3.0% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +10.05 total EPA
• T.Edwards (Buffalo Bills) · 25 dropbacks · 52.0% completion · -4.0% CPOE · -0.25 EPA/play · -6.19 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.08 vs -0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 9 drives, -1.50 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +7.46 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Cassel (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Edwards (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 55:46 · BUF 13 · Score 0-6
   (10:46) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 55:39 · BUF 2 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 43:29 · BUF 14 · Score 0-10
   (13:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
4. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 37:09 · NE 7 · Score 3-10
   (7:09) 9-R.Lindell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 23:18 · BUF 19 · Score 3-13
   (8:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 2:00 · BUF 1 · Score 3-19
   (2:00) NE 50-Vrabel eligible. 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 42-Green-Ellis 4th straight game with a TD.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 1:57 · BUF 2 · Score 3-20
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. NE 19 play scoring drive ties franchise record (9/15/02 at NYJ).
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 1:46 · NE 14 · Score 9-20
   (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 81-J.Hardy for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 1:42 · NE 2 · Score 10-20
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.