Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2006 Week 1 Recap

Game story

In Week 1 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-09-10, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 19–17 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with -4.26 total EPA, and -6.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Watson (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.22 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (14:55) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 11 for -10 yards (51-T.Spikes). FUMBLES (51-T.Spikes), RECOVERED by BUF-59-L.Fletcher-Baker at NE 5. 59-L.Fletcher-Baker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Watson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.22 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.74 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Reed · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.13 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.38 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Thomas · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.67 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Faulk · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.35 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.35 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Brown · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.16 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.58 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Caldwell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.55 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Evans · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.05 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.03 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Graham · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.93 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.93 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — L. Fletcher-Baker (Q1 59:55)
• New England Patriots — T. Brown (T. Brady pass) (Q1 55:47)
• Buffalo Bills — A. Thomas (Q2 41:45)
• New England Patriots — K. Faulk (T. Brady pass) (Q3 17:56)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 49:25)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 9:37)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 79 (Q1 59:55); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 59:48) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 9 (Q1 55:47) — (10:47) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-T.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 55:43) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 34 (Q1 49:25) — (4:25) 9-R.Lindell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q2 41:45) — (11:45) 28-A.Thomas left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 41:40) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q3 17:56) — (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 33-K.Faulk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-33-K.Faulk was injured during the play.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 17:52) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 5–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 14 (Q4 9:37) — (9:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.; New England Patriots registered a safety from the NE 92 (Q4 8:55) — (8:55) 7-J.Losman sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (94-T.Warren)..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 59:55) — (14:55) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 11 for -10 yards (51-T.Spikes). FUMBLES (51-T.Spikes), RECOVERED by BUF-59-L.Fletcher-Baker at NE 5. 59-L.Fletcher-Baker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.5% · EPA -7.83]
• New England Patriots (Q4 8:26) — (8:26) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 84-B.Watson INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Whitner at BUF 44. 20-D.Whitner to NE 46 for 10 yards. PENALTY on BUF-22-N.Clements, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yar [WPA -19.4% · EPA -3.29]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 6:28) — (6:28) 7-J.Losman sacked at BUF 46 for -6 yards (93-R.Seymour). [WPA -12.1% · EPA -2.14]
• New England Patriots (Q3 17:56) — (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 33-K.Faulk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-33-K.Faulk was injured during the play. [WPA +10.8% · EPA +3.35]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:40) — (7:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 82-J.Reed to NE 37 for 14 yards (26-E.Wilson, 25-A.Hawkins) [59-R.Colvin]. [WPA +9.4% · EPA +2.27]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q1 59:55) — (14:55) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 11 for -10 yards (51-T.Spikes). FUMBLES (51-T.Spikes), RECOVERED by BUF-59-L.Fletcher-Baker at NE 5. 59-L.Fletcher-Baker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.5% · EPA -7.83]
• New England Patriots (Q3 21:48) — (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 84-B.Watson to BUF 46 for 34 yards (20-D.Whitner). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +3.52]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 24:30) — (9:30) 21-W.McGahee right tackle to NE 7 for no gain (51-D.Davis). [WPA -8.6% · EPA -3.48]
• New England Patriots (Q3 17:56) — (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 33-K.Faulk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-33-K.Faulk was injured during the play. [WPA +10.8% · EPA +3.35]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 26 dropbacks · 42.3% completion · -6.2% CPOE · -0.16 EPA/play · -4.26 total EPA
• J.Losman (Buffalo Bills) · 26 dropbacks · 57.7% completion · +14.7% CPOE · +0.03 EPA/play · +0.72 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills -0.04, New England Patriots -0.04) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -2.81 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, -3.64 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• B. Watson (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Losman (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 59:55 · BUF 79 · Score 6-0
   (14:55) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 11 for -10 yards (51-T.Spikes). FUMBLES (51-T.Spikes), RECOVERED by BUF-59-L.Fletcher-Baker at NE 5. 59-L.Fletcher-Baker for 5 y
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 59:48 · NE 2 · Score 7-0
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 55:47 · BUF 9 · Score 7-6
   (10:47) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-T.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 55:43 · BUF 2 · Score 7-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 49:25 · NE 34 · Score 10-7
   (4:25) 9-R.Lindell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 41:45 · NE 18 · Score 16-7
   (11:45) 28-A.Thomas left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 41:40 · NE 2 · Score 17-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 17:56 · BUF 17 · Score 17-13
   (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 33-K.Faulk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-33-K.Faulk was injured during the play.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 17:52 · BUF 2 · Score 17-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 9:37 · BUF 14 · Score 17-17
    (9:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
11. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q4 8:55 · NE 92 · Score 17-19
    (8:55) 7-J.Losman sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (94-T.Warren).