Game story
In Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-09-25, the Miami Dolphins took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 21–19 final that came down to the wire.
The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.
J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +12.02 total EPA, and +4.3% completion percentage over expected.
On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.02 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.
The momentum swing (-34.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
Line score
Final score and points by quarter.
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | — | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
| Miami Dolphins | 13 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Stars of the game
Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.
- 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +12.02 total EPA · 71 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
- 2 T. Tagovailoa · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +10.69 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
- 3 J. Waddle · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +7.30 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
- 4 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.31 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
- 5 I. McKenzie · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.54 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
- 6 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.95 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
- 7 Q. Morris · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.45 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
- 8 R. Cracraft · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.19 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.19 EPA/play
Player of the game
FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.
J. Allen — BUF · Passing
J. Allen posted the highest total EPA (+12.02) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on Buffalo Bills's efficiency. Across 71 counted snaps, they averaged +0.17 EPA per play.
The signature play (-4.39 EPA) came from Buffalo Bills: (5:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 5 for -9 yards (8-J.Holland). FUMBLES (8-J.Holland), RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at BUF 7. 6-M.Ingram to BUF 6 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).
Who scored touchdowns and field goals
Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.
Touchdowns
- Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (J. Allen pass)
- Miami Dolphins — C. Edmonds
- Buffalo Bills — I. McKenzie (J. Allen pass)
- Miami Dolphins — R. Cracraft (T. Tagovailoa pass)
- Miami Dolphins — C. Edmonds
Field goals
- Buffalo Bills — T. Bass
How it unfolded, quarter by quarter
A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.
The opening quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 13–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 2 (Q1 54:06) — (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 54:03) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q1 48:39) — (3:39) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 15 (Q1 48:37) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead..
The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 8 (Q2 42:03) — (12:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 6-I.McKenzie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q2 41:59) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 11 (Q2 36:51) — (6:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 36:45) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead..
The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 11 (Q3 18:43) — (3:43) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..
The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–2. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 10:08) — (10:08) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 10:05) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.; Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the BUF 99 (Q4 1:37).
Turning points
Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.
- Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:49) — (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
- Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:18) — (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 6-I.McKenzie to MIA 41 for 12 yards (6-M.Ingram) [91-E.Ogbah].
- Miami Dolphins (Q4 11:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 7 for 45 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
- Miami Dolphins (Q4 1:37) — (1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive player.
- Buffalo Bills (Q4 7:48) — (7:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary pushed ob at MIA 41 for 22 yards (8-J.Holland).
Impact plays
Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.
- Buffalo Bills (Q1 50:19) — (5:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 5 for -9 yards (8-J.Holland). FUMBLES (8-J.Holland), RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at BUF 7. 6-M.Ingram to BUF 6 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).
- Miami Dolphins (Q4 11:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 7 for 45 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
- Buffalo Bills (Q4 14:12) — (14:12) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-E.Ogbah), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
- Buffalo Bills (Q1 54:06) — (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Quarterback report card
J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.
- J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 71 dropbacks · 59.2% completion · +4.3% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +12.02 total EPA
- T.Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) · 22 dropbacks · 59.1% completion · +5.5% CPOE · +0.49 EPA/play · +10.69 total EPA
Team stats comparison
Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.
| Stat | Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive EPA/play | +0.042 | +0.098 |
| Offensive success rate | 48.6% | 44.6% |
| Pass EPA/play | +0.169 | +0.353 |
| Rush EPA/play | -0.152 | -0.088 |
| Defensive EPA/play | -0.098 | -0.042 |
| Defensive success rate | 55.4% | 51.4% |
By the numbers
Miami Dolphins held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.10 vs +0.04), even if the scoreboard told a different story.
- Buffalo Bills: 9 drives, +4.41 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
- Miami Dolphins: 8 drives, +5.46 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
Key takeaways
What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.
- Miami Dolphins leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
- One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
- J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
- J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
- T. Tagovailoa (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
Every scoring play
Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.
- Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 54:06 · MIA 2 · Score 6-0
(9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 54:03 · MIA 15 · Score 7-0
2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. - Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q1 48:39 · BUF 1 · Score 7-6
(3:39) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. - Miami Dolphins TD (+7) — Q1 48:37 · BUF 15 · Score 7-7
7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. - Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 42:03 · MIA 8 · Score 13-7
(12:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 6-I.McKenzie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 41:59 · MIA 15 · Score 14-7
2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. - Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 36:51 · BUF 11 · Score 14-13
(6:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 36:45 · BUF 15 · Score 14-14
7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. - Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 18:43 · MIA 11 · Score 17-14
(3:43) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. - Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 10:08 · BUF 3 · Score 17-20
(10:08) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 10:05 · BUF 15 · Score 17-21
7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. - Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q4 1:37 · BUF 99 · Score 19-21
(1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive playe
Frequently asked questions
Who won Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?
The Miami Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills 21-19 in Week 3, 2022 on 2022-09-25.
What was the final score of Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?
The final score was Buffalo Bills 19, Miami Dolphins 21 (BUF 19-21 MIA) in Week 3, 2022 on 2022-09-25.
What was the score by quarter in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?
Q1: Buffalo Bills 7, Miami Dolphins 13; Q2: Buffalo Bills 7, Miami Dolphins 7; Q3: Buffalo Bills 3, Miami Dolphins 0; Q4: Buffalo Bills 2, Miami Dolphins 7; Final: Buffalo Bills 19, Miami Dolphins 21.
Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?
Buffalo Bills touchdown — D. Singletary (J. Allen pass) (Q1 54:06) Miami Dolphins touchdown — C. Edmonds (Q1 48:39) Buffalo Bills touchdown — I. McKenzie (J. Allen pass) (Q2 42:03) Miami Dolphins touchdown — R. Cracraft (T. Tagovailoa pass) (Q2 36:51) Miami Dolphins touchdown — C. Edmonds (Q4 10:08) Buffalo Bills field goal — T. Bass (Q3 18:43, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.
How did the quarterbacks play in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?
J. Allen (Buffalo Bills), 59.2% completion, +4.3% CPOE, +0.17 EPA per dropback, +12.02 total passing EPA. T. Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins), 59.1% completion, +5.5% CPOE, +0.49 EPA per dropback, +10.69 total passing EPA.
Who was the most impactful player in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?
J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) led the game in total EPA with +12.02 on passing plays. across 71 snaps. The top single-play swing was (-4.39 EPA): (5:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 5 for -9 yards (8-J.Holland). FUMBLES (8-J.Holland), RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at BUF 7. 6-M.Ingram to BUF 6 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).. The biggest win-probability swing was -34.5%.
Was Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins a close game?
Yes — the margin was 2 points. Miami Dolphins won 21-19 in a game that came down to the wire.
Season records after this game
Buffalo Bills
Entered 2-0 Now 2-1 L
Miami Dolphins
Entered 2-0 Now 3-0 W
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