Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-10-23, the Miami Dolphins took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 28–25 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +4.36 total EPA, and +4.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, K. Stills (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.72 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+17.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (5:57) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-J.Landry to BUF 28 for 18 yards (28-R.Darby).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 K. Stills · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +7.72 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.97 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +5.37 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Ajayi · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +5.24 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +4.36 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Goodwin · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.80 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Tate · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.68 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.84 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Landry · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.29 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Bush · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.36 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — T. Taylor (Q2 41:57)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Goodwin (T. Taylor pass) (Q3 21:00)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Ajayi (Q3 15:25)
• Miami Dolphins — D. Williams (Q4 4:12)
• Miami Dolphins — K. Stills (R. Tannehill pass) (Q4 2:35)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Bush (Q4 0:19)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — A. Franks (Q1 52:32)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q1 45:53)
• Miami Dolphins — A. Franks (Q2 33:54)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the BUF 18 (Q1 52:32) — (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 10 (Q1 45:53) — (:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 10 (Q2 41:57) — (11:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q2 41:47) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the BUF 15 (Q2 33:54) — (3:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 8–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 67 (Q3 21:00) — (6:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh].; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 20:51) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q3 15:25) — (:25) 23-J.Ajayi left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q3 15:18) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-R.Tannehill pass to 14-J.Landry is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–8. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 12 (Q4 4:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 26-D.Williams left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 20 (Q4 3:56) — 3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 66 (Q4 2:35) — (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 2:24) — 3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q4 0:19); Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the MIA 2 (Q4 0:14) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-T.Taylor pass to 22-R.Bush is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 5:57) — (5:57) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-J.Landry to BUF 28 for 18 yards (28-R.Darby). [WPA +17.7% · EPA +2.10]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:35) — (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.0% · EPA +6.45]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:00) — (6:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh]. [WPA +16.2% · EPA +5.88]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 11:37) — (11:37) 23-J.Ajayi right tackle to BUF 44 for 53 yards (28-R.Darby). MIA-14-J.Landry was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. [WPA +14.0% · EPA +3.73]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 4:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 26-D.Williams left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.5% · EPA +2.58]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:35) — (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.0% · EPA +6.45]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:00) — (6:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh]. [WPA +16.2% · EPA +5.88]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 11:37) — (11:37) 23-J.Ajayi right tackle to BUF 44 for 53 yards (28-R.Darby). MIA-14-J.Landry was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. [WPA +14.0% · EPA +3.73]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:40) — (:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 15-B.Tate to MIA 2 for 25 yards (31-M.Thomas). [WPA +2.5% · EPA +3.00]

Quarterback report card

T.Taylor led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 41 dropbacks · 34.1% completion · +4.4% CPOE · +0.11 EPA/play · +4.36 total EPA
• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 32 dropbacks · 46.9% completion · +0.3% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +5.37 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills +0.05, Miami Dolphins +0.07) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, +4.13 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 12 drives, +6.33 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Miami Dolphins leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• K. Stills (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Taylor (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q1 52:32 · BUF 18 · Score 0-3
   (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 45:53 · MIA 10 · Score 3-3
   (:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 41:57 · MIA 10 · Score 9-3
   (11:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 41:47 · MIA 15 · Score 10-3
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
5. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q2 33:54 · BUF 15 · Score 10-6
   (3:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 21:00 · MIA 67 · Score 16-6
   (6:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh].
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 20:51 · MIA 15 · Score 17-6
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
8. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 15:25 · BUF 4 · Score 17-12
   (:25) 23-J.Ajayi left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Miami Dolphins Safety (+2) — Q3 15:18 · BUF 2 · Score 17-14
   (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-R.Tannehill pass to 14-J.Landry is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
10. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 4:12 · BUF 12 · Score 17-20
    (4:12) (Shotgun) 26-D.Williams left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 3:56 · BUF 20 · Score 17-21
    3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
12. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 2:35 · BUF 66 · Score 17-27
    (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 2:24 · BUF 15 · Score 17-28
    3-A.Franks extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 0:19 · MIA 1 · Score 23-28
    (:19) (Shotgun) 22-R.Bush left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on BUF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offset
15. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q4 0:14 · MIA 2 · Score 25-28
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-T.Taylor pass to 22-R.Bush is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.