Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-10-20, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 23–21 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with -8.80 total EPA, and -7.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Graham (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +3.15 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-35.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (2:57) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 44 for -6 yards (94-M.Williams). FUMBLES (94-M.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-95-K.Williams at MIA 34. 95-K.Williams to MIA 34 for no gain (51-M.Pouncey).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Graham · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.15 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.58 EPA/play
2. 2 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.87 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Chandler · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.49 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Smith · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.34 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.34 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Wallace · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.22 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Hartline · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.12 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
7. 7 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +0.81 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.07 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Wallace · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +0.75 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — N. Robey (Q1 58:32)
• Buffalo Bills — F. Jackson (Q1 50:52)
• Miami Dolphins — C. Clay (R. Tannehill pass) (Q2 41:07)
• Miami Dolphins — B. Gibson (R. Tannehill pass) (Q2 30:28)
• Miami Dolphins — B. Gibson (R. Tannehill pass) (Q3 21:53)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 33:19)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q4 14:20)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q4 0:36)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 80 (Q1 58:32); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q1 58:27) — (Kick formation) 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 3 (Q1 50:52) — (5:52) (Shotgun) 22-F.Jackson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q1 50:47) — (Kick formation) 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–3. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q2 41:07) — (11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 42-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 40:59) — (Kick formation) 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 21 (Q2 33:19) — (3:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 13 (Q2 30:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 10-B.Gibson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 30:21) — (Kick formation) 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q3 21:53) — (6:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-B.Gibson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 21:46) — (Kick formation) 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 2 (Q4 14:20) — (14:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 13 (Q4 0:36) — (:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:57) — (2:57) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 44 for -6 yards (94-M.Williams). FUMBLES (94-M.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-95-K.Williams at MIA 34. 95-K.Williams to MIA 34 for no gain (51-M.Pouncey). [WPA -35.7% · EPA -4.76]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:06) — (:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-B.Gibson (24-S.Gilmore) [94-M.Williams]. [WPA -24.9% · EPA -0.06]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 58:32) — (13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 10-B.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 37-N.Robey at MIA 19. 37-N.Robey for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -6.71]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:43) — (3:43) (Shotgun) 9-T.Lewis pass short left to 13-S.Johnson to MIA 48 for 17 yards (27-J.Wilson) [53-J.Jenkins]. PENALTY on MIA-53-J.Jenkins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 48. [WPA +14.9% · EPA +3.78]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:36) — (:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman. [WPA +12.6% · EPA +0.25]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q1 58:32) — (13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 10-B.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 37-N.Robey at MIA 19. 37-N.Robey for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -6.71]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:57) — (2:57) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 44 for -6 yards (94-M.Williams). FUMBLES (94-M.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-95-K.Williams at MIA 34. 95-K.Williams to MIA 34 for no gain (51-M.Pouncey). [WPA -35.7% · EPA -4.76]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:43) — (3:43) (Shotgun) 9-T.Lewis pass short left to 13-S.Johnson to MIA 48 for 17 yards (27-J.Wilson) [53-J.Jenkins]. PENALTY on MIA-53-J.Jenkins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 48. [WPA +14.9% · EPA +3.78]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 37:07) — (7:07) (Shotgun) 9-T.Lewis pass short middle intended for 13-S.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Clemons [98-J.Odrick] at BUF 31. 30-C.Clemons to BUF 31 for no gain (13-S.Johnson). [WPA -8.8% · EPA -3.64]

Quarterback report card

R.Tannehill led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 41 dropbacks · 46.3% completion · -7.7% CPOE · -0.21 EPA/play · -8.80 total EPA
• T.Lewis (Buffalo Bills) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +3.2% CPOE · -0.08 EPA/play · -3.10 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.05 vs -0.11), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 14 drives, -4.20 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 14 drives, -9.57 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Graham (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Lewis (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 58:32 · BUF 80 · Score 6-0
   (13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 10-B.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 37-N.Robey at MIA 19. 37-N.Robey for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 58:27 · MIA 2 · Score 7-0
   (Kick formation) 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 50:52 · MIA 3 · Score 13-0
   (5:52) (Shotgun) 22-F.Jackson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 50:47 · MIA 2 · Score 14-0
   (Kick formation) 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
5. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 41:07 · BUF 7 · Score 14-6
   (11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 42-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 40:59 · BUF 2 · Score 14-7
   (Kick formation) 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 33:19 · MIA 21 · Score 17-7
   (3:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 30:28 · BUF 13 · Score 17-13
   (:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 10-B.Gibson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 30:21 · BUF 2 · Score 17-14
   (Kick formation) 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
10. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 21:53 · BUF 4 · Score 17-20
    (6:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-B.Gibson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 21:46 · BUF 2 · Score 17-21
    (Kick formation) 9-C.Sturgis extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
12. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 14:20 · MIA 2 · Score 20-21
    (14:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
13. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:36 · MIA 13 · Score 23-21
    (:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.