Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2020 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season on 2020-10-04, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling away with a 30–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) paced the passing game, with +8.47 total EPA, and +0.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.44 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-10.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: (12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +17.44 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +9.08 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +8.47 total EPA · 53 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
4. 4 N. Agholor · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +8.06 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.01 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Beasley · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.19 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
6. 6 I. McKenzie · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.22 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.22 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.11 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.11 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Brown · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.03 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.61 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q1 55:44)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Beasley (J. Allen pass) (Q2 44:53)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Witten (D. Carr pass) (Q2 30:19)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q4 15:00)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (Q4 11:24)
• Las Vegas Raiders — N. Agholor (D. Carr pass) (Q4 1:36)

Field goals

• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q1 50:08)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q2 39:43)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 34:17)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q3 23:41)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 26 (Q1 55:44) — (10:44) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q1 55:37) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 36 (Q1 50:08) — (5:08) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 11 (Q2 44:53); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q2 44:48) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 21 (Q2 39:43) — (9:43) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the LV 16 (Q2 34:17) — (4:17) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 30:13) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The third quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 3–0. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q3 23:41) — (8:41) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 1 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 2 (Q4 11:24) — (11:24) 26-D.Singletary left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q4 11:17) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q4 1:36); Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 1:29) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 12:39) — (12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF [WPA -10.7% · EPA -4.79]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +1.85]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:44) — (10:44) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.3% · EPA +3.11]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:16) — (6:16) 19-I.McKenzie right end pushed ob at LV 36 for 14 yards (27-T.Mullen). [WPA +8.2% · EPA +3.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:17) — (13:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at 50 for 21 yards (24-J.Abram). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +2.55]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 5:29) — (5:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at BUF 39 for -6 yards (90-Q.Jefferson). FUMBLES (90-Q.Jefferson) [92-D.Johnson], RECOVERED by BUF-90-Q.Jefferson at BUF 40. [WPA -6.2% · EPA -5.64]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 12:39) — (12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF [WPA -10.7% · EPA -4.79]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 9:52) — (9:52) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle to LV 34 for no gain (91-E.Oliver, 21-J.Poyer). [WPA -1.7% · EPA -3.77]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 1:36) — (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-N.Agholor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-4-D.Carr was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. [WPA +0.6% · EPA +3.33]

Quarterback report card

D.Carr led all passers in efficiency for Las Vegas Raiders, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 53 dropbacks · 60.4% completion · +0.9% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +8.47 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 36 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +5.3% CPOE · +0.48 EPA/play · +17.44 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs +0.00), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +10.76 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 9 drives, +0.08 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 55:44 · LV 26 · Score 6-0
   (10:44) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 55:37 · LV 15 · Score 7-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
3. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q1 50:08 · BUF 36 · Score 7-3
   (5:08) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 44:53 · LV 11 · Score 13-3
   (14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-29-L.Joyner was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 44:48 · LV 15 · Score 14-3
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
6. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 39:43 · BUF 21 · Score 14-6
   (9:43) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 34:17 · LV 16 · Score 17-6
   (4:17) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
8. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · BUF 3 · Score 17-12
   (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · BUF 15 · Score 17-13
   2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
10. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q3 23:41 · BUF 7 · Score 17-16
    (8:41) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · LV 1 · Score 23-16
    (15:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 11:24 · LV 2 · Score 29-16
    (11:24) 26-D.Singletary left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 11:17 · LV 15 · Score 30-16
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
14. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 1:36 · BUF 7 · Score 30-22
    (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-N.Agholor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-4-D.Carr was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
15. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 1:29 · BUF 15 · Score 30-23
    2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.