Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2009 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2009 NFL season on 2009-11-22, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 18–15 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 10 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -4.40 total EPA, and +8.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Owens (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.90 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+24.7% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (11:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-T.Owens for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Owens · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +12.90 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Sims-Walker · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +9.09 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.01 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +7.71 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Lewis · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.41 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.69 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Thomas · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.24 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
7. 7 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.36 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Nelson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.13 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q2 39:35)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Owens (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q3 26:40)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Sims-Walker (D. Garrard pass) (Q4 1:02)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q1 55:44)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 49:41)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 47:04)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 30:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 11 (Q1 55:44) — (10:44) 10-J.Scobee 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 8 (Q1 49:41) — (4:41) 9-R.Lindell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 10 (Q1 47:04) — (2:04) 9-R.Lindell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–3. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q2 39:35) — (9:35) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 39:30) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 4 (Q2 30:00) — (:00) 9-R.Lindell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 98 (Q3 26:40) — (11:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-T.Owens for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 8–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 1:02) — (1:02) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 11-M.Sims-Walker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 0:56) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Garrard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 26:40) — (11:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-T.Owens for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +24.7% · EPA +8.20]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 49:24) — (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right intended for 81-T.Holt INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Wilson (43-B.Scott) at JAX 36. 37-G.Wilson to JAX 9 for 27 yards (80-M.Thomas). [WPA -19.5% · EPA -5.85]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 3:59) — (3:59) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 11-M.Sims-Walker to BUF 12 for 20 yards (37-G.Wilson). [WPA +19.0% · EPA +1.59]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 8:36) — (8:36) 9-D.Garrard scrambles up the middle to BUF 20 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny). FUMBLES (51-P.Posluszny), RECOVERED by BUF-91-Sp.Johnson at BUF 20. 91-Sp.Johnson to BUF 20 for no gain (32-M.Jones-Dr [WPA -18.5% · EPA -4.24]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 36:31) — (6:31) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to JAX 34 for -1 yards (96-T.Knighton). FUMBLES (96-T.Knighton), RECOVERED by JAX-91-D.Harvey at JAX 34. 91-D.Harvey to JAX 34 for no gain (23-M.Lynch). BUF-23-M.Lynch [WPA -15.5% · EPA -4.91]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 26:40) — (11:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-T.Owens for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +24.7% · EPA +8.20]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 49:24) — (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right intended for 81-T.Holt INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Wilson (43-B.Scott) at JAX 36. 37-G.Wilson to JAX 9 for 27 yards (80-M.Thomas). [WPA -19.5% · EPA -5.85]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 36:31) — (6:31) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to JAX 34 for -1 yards (96-T.Knighton). FUMBLES (96-T.Knighton), RECOVERED by JAX-91-D.Harvey at JAX 34. 91-D.Harvey to JAX 34 for no gain (23-M.Lynch). BUF-23-M.Lynch [WPA -15.5% · EPA -4.91]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 8:36) — (8:36) 9-D.Garrard scrambles up the middle to BUF 20 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny). FUMBLES (51-P.Posluszny), RECOVERED by BUF-91-Sp.Johnson at BUF 20. 91-Sp.Johnson to BUF 20 for no gain (32-M.Jones-Dr [WPA -18.5% · EPA -4.24]

Quarterback report card

D.Garrard led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 36 dropbacks · 58.3% completion · +8.4% CPOE · -0.12 EPA/play · -4.40 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 35 dropbacks · 51.4% completion · +2.0% CPOE · +0.22 EPA/play · +7.71 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills -0.01, Jacksonville Jaguars -0.01) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -1.01 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, -0.56 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Owens (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Garrard (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 55:44 · BUF 11 · Score 0-3
   (10:44) 10-J.Scobee 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 49:41 · JAX 8 · Score 3-3
   (4:41) 9-R.Lindell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 47:04 · JAX 10 · Score 6-3
   (2:04) 9-R.Lindell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 39:35 · BUF 3 · Score 6-9
   (9:35) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 39:30 · BUF 2 · Score 6-10
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:00 · JAX 4 · Score 9-10
   (:00) 9-R.Lindell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:40 · JAX 98 · Score 15-10
   (11:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-T.Owens for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 1:02 · BUF 3 · Score 15-16
   (1:02) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 11-M.Sims-Walker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars Safety (+2) — Q4 0:56 · BUF 2 · Score 15-18
   (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Garrard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.