Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2007 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-11-25, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 36–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Losman (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -9.27 total EPA, and +1.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.66 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-11.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (2:00) 7-J.Losman up the middle to JAX 43 for 1 yard (23-J.Fudge). FUMBLES (23-J.Fudge), RECOVERED by JAX-23-J.Fudge at JAX 45. 23-J.Fudge to JAX 45 for no gain (66-D.Dockery). Play Challenged by Repl

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +13.66 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Williams · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +6.13 total EPA · 1 snaps · +6.13 EPA/play
3. 3 An. Thomas · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.91 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play
4. 4 E. Wilford · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.84 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Northcutt · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.36 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Lewis · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.86 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
7. 7 F. Taylor · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +2.90 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Parrish · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.89 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.89 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — F. Taylor (Q1 54:48)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Losman (Q2 36:13)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Parrish (Q3 16:37)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Williams (D. Garrard pass) (Q4 2:49)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q4 1:48)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q1 46:27)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q2 40:59)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q2 30:06)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q3 23:09)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q4 14:12)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 10–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 50 (Q1 54:48) — (9:48) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 54:40) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 28 (Q1 46:27) — (1:27) 10-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–6. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 15 (Q2 40:59) — (10:59) 10-J.Scobee 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 10 (Q2 36:13) — (6:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 28-An.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 36:03) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 4 (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 10-J.Scobee 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 5 (Q3 23:09) — (8:09) 10-J.Scobee 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 24 (Q3 16:37) — (1:37) 11-R.Parrish left end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 16:29) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 17–0. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 2 (Q4 14:12) — (14:12) 10-J.Scobee 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 59 (Q4 2:49) — (2:49) 9-D.Garrard pass short middle to 11-R.Williams for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 2:39) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q4 1:48) — (1:48) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 1:43) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 7-J.Losman up the middle to JAX 43 for 1 yard (23-J.Fudge). FUMBLES (23-J.Fudge), RECOVERED by JAX-23-J.Fudge at JAX 45. 23-J.Fudge to JAX 45 for no gain (66-D.Dockery). Play Challenged by Repl [WPA -11.3% · EPA -3.65]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 54:48) — (9:48) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.3% · EPA +4.14]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 7:58) — (7:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short middle intended for 82-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 56-J.Durant at JAX 25. 56-J.Durant to JAX 27 for 2 yards (82-J.Reed). [WPA -9.4% · EPA -4.02]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 33:17) — (3:17) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end to BUF 47 for -6 yards (94-A.Schobel). [WPA -8.3% · EPA -2.70]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 36:13) — (6:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 28-An.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.2% · EPA +3.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 2:49) — (2:49) 9-D.Garrard pass short middle to 11-R.Williams for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.5% · EPA +6.13]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:07) — (6:07) 8-B.Moorman punts 42 yards to JAX 45, Center-72-R.Neill. 42-C.Nkang MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-17-J.Jenkins at JAX 45. 17-J.Jenkins to JAX 45 for no gain (86-D.Northcutt). Play Challenged by [WPA +7.5% · EPA +5.33]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 44:27) — (14:27) 7-J.Losman pass short middle intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Knight at BUF 42. 26-S.Knight to BUF 27 for 15 yards (28-An.Thomas). [WPA -6.3% · EPA -4.72]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 54:48) — (9:48) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.3% · EPA +4.14]

Quarterback report card

J.Losman led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Losman (Buffalo Bills) · 45 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +1.6% CPOE · -0.21 EPA/play · -9.27 total EPA
• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 39 dropbacks · 59.0% completion · +3.6% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +13.66 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Jacksonville Jaguars held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs -0.07), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, -5.92 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, +16.31 total EPA, 8 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Garrard (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 54:48 · BUF 50 · Score 0-6
   (9:48) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 54:40 · BUF 2 · Score 0-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 46:27 · BUF 28 · Score 0-10
   (1:27) 10-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 40:59 · BUF 15 · Score 0-13
   (10:59) 10-J.Scobee 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 36:13 · JAX 10 · Score 6-13
   (6:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 28-An.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 36:03 · JAX 2 · Score 7-13
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 30:06 · BUF 4 · Score 7-16
   (:06) 10-J.Scobee 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 23:09 · BUF 5 · Score 7-19
   (8:09) 10-J.Scobee 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 16:37 · JAX 24 · Score 13-19
   (1:37) 11-R.Parrish left end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 16:29 · JAX 2 · Score 14-19
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 14:12 · BUF 2 · Score 14-22
    (14:12) 10-J.Scobee 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 2:49 · BUF 59 · Score 14-28
    (2:49) 9-D.Garrard pass short middle to 11-R.Williams for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 2:39 · BUF 2 · Score 14-29
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 1:48 · BUF 17 · Score 14-35
    (1:48) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 1:43 · BUF 2 · Score 14-36
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.