Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-20, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Cincinnati Bengals, pulling away with a 16–12 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) paced the passing game, with -8.02 total EPA, and -5.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-28.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Cincinnati Bengals changed the game: (:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep middle to 86-J.Wright (28-R.Darby, 21-N.Robey-Coleman).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Boyd · Cincinnati Bengals · Receiving · +4.78 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Woods · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.80 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Tate · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.31 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Bush · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.14 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Gillislee · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.94 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
6. 6 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.82 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Wright · Cincinnati Bengals · Receiving · +1.71 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Burkhead · Cincinnati Bengals · Receiving · +0.77 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q1 53:57)
• Cincinnati Bengals — A. Dalton (Q1 47:38)
• Cincinnati Bengals — T. Boyd (A. Dalton pass) (Q2 33:14)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 39:06)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q3 25:30)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q4 12:08)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–6. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CIN 7 (Q1 53:57) — (8:57) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the CIN 15 (Q1 53:52) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Cincinnati Bengals found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q1 47:38).

The second quarter: Cincinnati Bengals won the period 6–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the CIN 8 (Q2 39:06) — (9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Cincinnati Bengals found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 33:14) — (3:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the CIN 36 (Q3 25:30) — (10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the CIN 2 (Q4 12:08) — (12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Cincinnati Bengals (Q4 0:03) — (:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep middle to 86-J.Wright (28-R.Darby, 21-N.Robey-Coleman). [WPA -28.9% · EPA -1.50]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:55) — (:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 88-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kirkpatrick at CIN 1. 27-D.Kirkpatrick ran ob at CIN 1 for no gain. [WPA -20.4% · EPA -3.40]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q2 41:18) — (11:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at BUF 48. 24-S.Gilmore pushed ob at CIN 3 for 49 yards (25-G.Bernard). [WPA -19.0% · EPA -7.16]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q2 30:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 85-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at BUF 25. 24-S.Gilmore to BUF 32 for 7 yards (11-B.LaFell). [WPA -13.2% · EPA -1.46]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q4 0:38) — (:38) PENALTY on CIN-73-E.Winston, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play. [WPA -10.8% · EPA -0.66]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Cincinnati Bengals (Q2 41:18) — (11:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at BUF 48. 24-S.Gilmore pushed ob at CIN 3 for 49 yards (25-G.Bernard). [WPA -19.0% · EPA -7.16]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:55) — (:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 88-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kirkpatrick at CIN 1. 27-D.Kirkpatrick ran ob at CIN 1 for no gain. [WPA -20.4% · EPA -3.40]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 16:58) — (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 15-B.Tate ran ob at CIN 29 for 34 yards (55-V.Burfict). [WPA +9.4% · EPA +2.96]
• Cincinnati Bengals (Q1 52:53) — (7:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 86-J.Wright to CIN 36 for 15 yards (20-C.Graham; 24-S.Gilmore). [WPA +6.6% · EPA +2.91]

Quarterback report card

A.Dalton led all passers in efficiency for Cincinnati Bengals, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) · 46 dropbacks · 52.2% completion · -5.3% CPOE · -0.17 EPA/play · -8.02 total EPA
• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 35 dropbacks · 54.3% completion · +5.7% CPOE · -0.21 EPA/play · -7.29 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.01 vs -0.11), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -1.10 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Cincinnati Bengals: 11 drives, -9.94 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Dalton (CIN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Taylor (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 53:57 · CIN 7 · Score 6-0
   (8:57) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 53:52 · CIN 15 · Score 7-0
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
3. Cincinnati Bengals TD (+6) — Q1 47:38 · BUF 2 · Score 7-6
   (2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruli
4. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 39:06 · CIN 8 · Score 10-6
   (9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
5. Cincinnati Bengals TD (+6) — Q2 33:14 · BUF 1 · Score 10-12
   (3:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 25:30 · CIN 36 · Score 13-12
   (10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 12:08 · CIN 2 · Score 16-12
   (12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.