Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2019 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-29, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 28–22 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with -4.84 total EPA, and -2.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Perriman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.81 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-52.7% win probability) landed in overtime when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Perriman · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +9.81 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Gage · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.58 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.13 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Hardy · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.21 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.40 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Sambrailo · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.27 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.27 EPA/play
6. 6 O. Zaccheaus · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +1.14 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Winston · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Rushing · +1.05 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
8. 8 P. Barber · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +0.91 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — T. Sambrailo (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 55:40)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Brate (J. Winston pass) (Q2 40:27)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — D. White (Q2 33:21)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — B. Perriman (J. Winston pass) (Q2 30:19)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Jones (OT 10:00)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q1 52:00)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q2 35:24)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q2 31:02)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q4 6:32)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q4 0:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 35 (Q1 55:40) — (10:40) (Shotgun) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 74-T.Sambrailo for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 55:33) — 7-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 9 (Q1 52:00) — (7:00) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 22–6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q2 40:27) — (10:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 40:23) — 9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 15 (Q2 35:24) — (5:24) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the TB 10 (Q2 33:21); Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 20 (Q2 33:07); Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 27 (Q2 31:02) — (1:02) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 24 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q2 30:11) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-J.Winston rushes right tackle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 6–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 25 (Q4 6:32) — (6:32) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 15 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen..

Overtime: Atlanta Falcons won the period 6–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ATL 75 (OT 10:00).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (OT 10:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -52.7% · EPA -8.15]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 33:21) — (3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45-D.White for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Re [WPA -36.6% · EPA -10.67]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:47) — (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at TB 38 for 21 yards (24-D.Stewart). [WPA +22.5% · EPA +2.02]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 35:14) — (5:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 37-Ri.Allen at TB 46. 37-Ri.Allen to TB 19 for 27 yards (27-R.Jones). [WPA -15.5% · EPA -4.81]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:59) — (:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 41 for -7 yards (58-S.Barrett). [WPA -13.1% · EPA -1.05]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 33:21) — (3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45-D.White for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Re [WPA -36.6% · EPA -10.67]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (OT 10:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -52.7% · EPA -8.15]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 55:27) — (10:27) 71-E.Watford reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones up the middle to TB 27 for no gain (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner). FUMBLES (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner), RECOVERED by ATL-45-D.Jones at TB 34. 45-D.Jones to TB [WPA -11.2% · EPA -5.51]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 35:14) — (5:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 37-Ri.Allen at TB 46. 37-Ri.Allen to TB 19 for 27 yards (27-R.Jones). [WPA -15.5% · EPA -4.81]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 60 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -2.1% CPOE · -0.08 EPA/play · -4.84 total EPA
• J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 30 dropbacks · 43.3% completion · -4.8% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -7.78 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Atlanta Falcons generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.09 vs -0.30), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, -8.80 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12 drives, -20.80 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• B. Perriman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Winston (TB) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 55:40 · TB 35 · Score 6-0
   (10:40) (Shotgun) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 74-T.Sambrailo for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 55:33 · TB 15 · Score 7-0
   7-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
3. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 52:00 · TB 9 · Score 10-0
   (7:00) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 40:27 · ATL 2 · Score 10-6
   (10:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 40:23 · ATL 15 · Score 10-7
   9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
6. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 35:24 · TB 15 · Score 13-7
   (5:24) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 33:21 · TB 10 · Score 13-13
   (3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 33:07 · ATL 20 · Score 13-14
   9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on ATL-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
9. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 31:02 · TB 27 · Score 16-14
   (1:02) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · ATL 24 · Score 16-20
    (:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Safety (+2) — Q2 30:11 · ATL 2 · Score 16-22
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-J.Winston rushes right tackle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
12. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 6:32 · TB 25 · Score 19-22
    (6:32) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
13. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · TB 15 · Score 22-22
    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
14. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — OT 10:00 · ATL 75 · Score 28-22
    (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.