Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-03, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 43–28 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with +14.51 total EPA, and +1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.05 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-15.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (9:06) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 20 for -8 yards (93-G.McCoy). FUMBLES (93-G.McCoy) [93-G.McCoy], RECOVERED by TB-51-Da.Smith at ATL 19. 51-Da.Smith to ATL 19 for no gain (67-A.Levitre).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +20.05 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Winston · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +14.51 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +13.55 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +7.30 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.61 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Glennon · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +7.13 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.60 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Brate · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.34 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Hooper · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.72 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q1 54:37)
• Atlanta Falcons — L. Toilolo (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 52:47)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q2 38:43)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gabriel (Q2 34:01)
• Atlanta Falcons — P. DiMarco (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 23:59)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 18:07)
• Atlanta Falcons — A. Hooper (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 10:00)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — A. Humphries (J. Winston pass) (Q4 6:53)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Brate (M. Glennon pass) (Q4 1:01)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 51:12)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 43:42)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 3:47)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 3 (Q1 54:37) — (9:37) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 54:28) — 19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 32 (Q1 52:47) — (7:47) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 80-L.Toilolo for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 52:39) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 11 (Q1 51:12) — (6:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–7. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 23 (Q2 43:42) — (13:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 24 (Q2 38:43) — (8:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 20 (Q2 38:35) — 19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 9 (Q2 34:01) — (4:01) 18-T.Gabriel right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 33:56) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 13–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q3 23:59) — (8:59) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 42-P.DiMarco for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 3 (Q3 18:07) — (3:07) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 18:02) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–10. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 2 (Q4 10:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 9:56) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 7 (Q4 6:53) — (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 11-A.Humphries for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 32 (Q4 3:47) — (3:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q4 1:01) — (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q4 0:59) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Glennon pass to 82-B.Myers is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 39:06) — (9:06) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 20 for -8 yards (93-G.McCoy). FUMBLES (93-G.McCoy) [93-G.McCoy], RECOVERED by TB-51-Da.Smith at ATL 19. 51-Da.Smith to ATL 19 for no gain (67-A.Levitre). [WPA -15.3% · EPA -5.21]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 46:47) — (1:47) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 39 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett, 21-D.Trufant). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-J.Winston up the middle to A [WPA -15.2% · EPA -4.72]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 52:13) — (7:13) (Shotgun) 36-A.Smith up the middle to TB 13 for -1 yards (59-D.Campbell). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), RECOVERED by ATL-34-B.Poole at TB 14. 34-B.Poole to TB 14 for no gain (74-A.Marpet). [WPA -14.9% · EPA -4.87]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 38:43) — (8:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +3.32]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 52:47) — (7:47) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 80-L.Toilolo for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.4% · EPA +3.26]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 39:06) — (9:06) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 20 for -8 yards (93-G.McCoy). FUMBLES (93-G.McCoy) [93-G.McCoy], RECOVERED by TB-51-Da.Smith at ATL 19. 51-Da.Smith to ATL 19 for no gain (67-A.Levitre). [WPA -15.3% · EPA -5.21]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 52:13) — (7:13) (Shotgun) 36-A.Smith up the middle to TB 13 for -1 yards (59-D.Campbell). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), RECOVERED by ATL-34-B.Poole at TB 14. 34-B.Poole to TB 14 for no gain (74-A.Marpet). [WPA -14.9% · EPA -4.87]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 46:47) — (1:47) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 39 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett, 21-D.Trufant). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-J.Winston up the middle to A [WPA -15.2% · EPA -4.72]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 38:43) — (8:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +3.32]

Quarterback report card

J.Winston led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 45 dropbacks · 51.1% completion · +1.4% CPOE · +0.32 EPA/play · +14.51 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 39 dropbacks · 64.1% completion · +20.6% CPOE · +0.51 EPA/play · +20.05 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Atlanta Falcons generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.30 vs +0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 11 drives, +25.73 total EPA, 8 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 drives, +4.05 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q1 54:37 · ATL 3 · Score 0-6
   (9:37) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q1 54:28 · ATL 15 · Score 0-7
   19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 52:47 · TB 32 · Score 6-7
   (7:47) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 80-L.Toilolo for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 52:39 · TB 15 · Score 7-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 51:12 · TB 11 · Score 10-7
   (6:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
6. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 43:42 · TB 23 · Score 13-7
   (13:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 38:43 · ATL 24 · Score 13-13
   (8:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 38:35 · ATL 20 · Score 13-14
   19-R.Aguayo extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 34:01 · TB 9 · Score 19-14
   (4:01) 18-T.Gabriel right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 33:56 · TB 15 · Score 20-14
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 23:59 · TB 1 · Score 26-14
    (8:59) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 42-P.DiMarco for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 18:07 · TB 3 · Score 32-14
    (3:07) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 18:02 · TB 15 · Score 33-14
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
14. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 10:00 · TB 2 · Score 39-14
    (10:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 9:56 · TB 15 · Score 40-14
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 6:53 · ATL 7 · Score 40-20
    (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 11-A.Humphries for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 3:47 · TB 32 · Score 43-20
    (3:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 1:01 · ATL 2 · Score 43-26
    (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Safety (+2) — Q4 0:59 · ATL 2 · Score 43-28
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Glennon pass to 82-B.Myers is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.