Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-15, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 29–22 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +10.72 total EPA, and +0.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Jones (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.68 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-37.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: 7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. F

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +11.68 total EPA · 20 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +10.72 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Garoppolo · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +5.52 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Kittle · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.10 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Juszczyk · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +1.06 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Hill · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +0.83 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Stocker · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +0.79 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
8. 8 Q. Ollison · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +0.70 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.70 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — R. Mostert (Q2 42:59)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 37:06)
• San Francisco 49ers — K. Juszczyk (J. Garoppolo pass) (Q4 10:12)
• Atlanta Falcons — Q. Ollison (Q4 5:20)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 0:05)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q4 0:02)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q2 32:41)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q2 30:27)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q3 20:20)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q4 1:52)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q2 42:59) — (12:59) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 42:55) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q2 37:06) — (7:06) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 0. 0-yac; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 37:01) — 7-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SF 25 (Q2 32:41) — (2:41) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ATL 4 (Q2 30:27) — (:27) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 3–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ATL 28 (Q3 20:20) — (5:20) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 19–9. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q4 10:12) — (10:12) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ATL 1. 1-yac; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q4 5:20) — (5:20) 30-Q.Ollison up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 5:15) — 7-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ATL 25 (Q4 1:52) — (1:52) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q4 0:05); Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ATL 35 (Q4 0:02).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:02) — 7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. F [WPA -37.6% · EPA -7.01]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:05) — (:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan [WPA +30.2% · EPA +4.16]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 11:00) — (11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to [WPA +17.7% · EPA +7.03]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 1:11) — (1:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 24 for 25 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 35. 11-yac [WPA +16.7% · EPA +1.60]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 15:44) — (:44) 22-M.Breida left tackle to ATL 34 for 4 yards (59-D.Campbell, 97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), RECOVERED by ATL-59-D.Campbell at ATL 34. 59-D.Campbell to ATL 34 for no gain (74-J.Staley). [WPA -15.6% · EPA -5.03]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 11:00) — (11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to [WPA +17.7% · EPA +7.03]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 0:02) — 7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. F [WPA -37.6% · EPA -7.01]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 15:44) — (:44) 22-M.Breida left tackle to ATL 34 for 4 yards (59-D.Campbell, 97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), RECOVERED by ATL-59-D.Campbell at ATL 34. 59-D.Campbell to ATL 34 for no gain (74-J.Staley). [WPA -15.6% · EPA -5.03]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:05) — (:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan [WPA +30.2% · EPA +4.16]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 47 dropbacks · 53.2% completion · +0.3% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +10.72 total EPA
• J.Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers) · 38 dropbacks · 57.9% completion · -5.1% CPOE · +0.15 EPA/play · +5.52 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Atlanta Falcons generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.10 vs +0.01), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 10 drives, +8.83 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 12 drives, +0.60 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Jones (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Garoppolo (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 42:59 · ATL 2 · Score 0-6
   (12:59) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 42:55 · ATL 15 · Score 0-7
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 37:06 · SF 5 · Score 6-7
   (7:06) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 0. 0-yac
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 37:01 · SF 15 · Score 7-7
   7-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
5. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 32:41 · SF 25 · Score 10-7
   (2:41) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
6. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 30:27 · ATL 4 · Score 10-10
   (:27) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
7. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q3 20:20 · ATL 28 · Score 10-13
   (5:20) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
8. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 10:12 · ATL 2 · Score 10-19
   (10:12) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ATL 1. 1-yac
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 5:20 · SF 1 · Score 16-19
   (5:20) 30-Q.Ollison up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 5:15 · SF 15 · Score 17-19
    7-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
11. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 1:52 · ATL 25 · Score 17-22
    (1:52) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
12. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 0:05 · SF 5 · Score 23-22
    (:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and th
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 0:02 · ATL 35 · Score 29-22
    7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral