Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-12-20, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 23–17 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -3.24 total EPA, and -1.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Jones (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.87 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (:11) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Ishmael at ATL 0. 36-K.Ishmael to JAX 16 for 84 yards (5-B.Bortles). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +8.87 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +7.19 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
3. 3 R. White · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.94 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Thomas · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.98 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Lee · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.61 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.31 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Robinson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.26 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Hardy · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +1.61 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Coleman · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +1.29 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q1 55:55)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 33:57)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Bortles (Q3 25:47)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Robinson (B. Bortles pass) (Q3 21:21)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q2 44:09)
• Atlanta Falcons — S. Graham (Q2 30:02)
• Atlanta Falcons — S. Graham (Q4 10:31)
• Atlanta Falcons — S. Graham (Q4 1:46)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 7–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the JAX 5 (Q1 55:55) — (10:55) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 55:48) — 6-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the ATL 24 (Q2 44:09) — (14:09) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the JAX 11 (Q2 33:57) — (3:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 33:47) — 6-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the JAX 16 (Q2 30:02) — (:02) 6-S.Graham 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 14–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q3 25:47) — (10:47) 93-T.Alualu reported in as eligible. 5-B.Bortles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 25:40) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the ATL 10 (Q3 21:21); Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 21:15) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 6–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the JAX 15 (Q4 10:31) — (10:31) 6-S.Graham 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the JAX 28 (Q4 1:46) — (1:46) 6-S.Graham 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 30:11) — (:11) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Ishmael at ATL 0. 36-K.Ishmael to JAX 16 for 84 yards (5-B.Bortles). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was [WPA -21.6% · EPA -7.65]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 24:52) — (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 51-P.Posluszny (75-J.Odrick) at ATL 42. 51-P.Posluszny to ATL 39 for 3 yards (11-J.Jones). [WPA -10.8% · EPA -5.21]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 10:31) — (10:31) 6-S.Graham 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. [WPA +10.7% · EPA +0.25]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 17:54) — (2:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to JAX 49 for 19 yards (38-S.Brown). [WPA +10.7% · EPA +2.60]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 9:41) — (9:41) (Shotgun) 16-D.Robinson up the middle to JAX 28 for -1 yards (95-J.Babineaux). FUMBLES (95-J.Babineaux), touched at JAX 30, recovered by JAX-88-A.Hurns at JAX 16. 88-A.Hurns to JAX 16 for no ga [WPA -10.4% · EPA -2.79]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 30:11) — (:11) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Ishmael at ATL 0. 36-K.Ishmael to JAX 16 for 84 yards (5-B.Bortles). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was [WPA -21.6% · EPA -7.65]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 24:52) — (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 51-P.Posluszny (75-J.Odrick) at ATL 42. 51-P.Posluszny to ATL 39 for 3 yards (11-J.Jones). [WPA -10.8% · EPA -5.21]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 9:41) — (9:41) (Shotgun) 16-D.Robinson up the middle to JAX 28 for -1 yards (95-J.Babineaux). FUMBLES (95-J.Babineaux), touched at JAX 30, recovered by JAX-88-A.Hurns at JAX 16. 88-A.Hurns to JAX 16 for no ga [WPA -10.4% · EPA -2.79]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 17:54) — (2:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to JAX 49 for 19 yards (38-S.Brown). [WPA +10.7% · EPA +2.60]

Quarterback report card

B.Bortles led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 44 dropbacks · 52.3% completion · -1.5% CPOE · -0.07 EPA/play · -3.24 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 42 dropbacks · 52.4% completion · -3.3% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +7.19 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Atlanta Falcons generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.03 vs -0.08), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, +2.68 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, -6.58 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Jones (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 55:55 · JAX 5 · Score 6-0
   (10:55) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 55:48 · JAX 15 · Score 7-0
   6-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 44:09 · ATL 24 · Score 7-3
   (14:09) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
4. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 33:57 · JAX 11 · Score 13-3
   (3:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 33:47 · JAX 15 · Score 14-3
   6-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
6. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 30:02 · JAX 16 · Score 17-3
   (:02) 6-S.Graham 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 25:47 · ATL 1 · Score 17-9
   (10:47) 93-T.Alualu reported in as eligible. 5-B.Bortles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 25:40 · ATL 15 · Score 17-10
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 21:21 · ATL 10 · Score 17-16
   (6:21) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-21-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 21:15 · ATL 15 · Score 17-17
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
11. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 10:31 · JAX 15 · Score 20-17
    (10:31) 6-S.Graham 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
12. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 1:46 · JAX 28 · Score 23-17
    (1:46) 6-S.Graham 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.