Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: 2012 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-12-09, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 30–20 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +12.77 total EPA, and +6.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Newton (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.97 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+7.4% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles right end to ATL 23 for 14 yards (27-R.McClain).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Newton · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +16.97 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +12.77 total EPA · 54 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
3. 3 R. White · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +9.36 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Williams · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +5.08 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.69 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Olsen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.94 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.99 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Newton · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +4.30 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Smith · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.35 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.11 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — G. Olsen (C. Newton pass) (Q1 52:55)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Newton (Q3 26:13)
• Atlanta Falcons — R. White (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 19:53)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 14:04)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Williams (C. Newton pass) (Q4 4:24)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Turner (Q4 0:56)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 40:58)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 35:02)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 30:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 25 (Q1 52:55) — (7:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q1 52:49) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 9–0. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the ATL 6 (Q2 40:58) — (10:58) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the ATL 23 (Q2 35:02) — (5:02) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the ATL 13 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 72 (Q3 26:13) — (11:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q3 26:01) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 4 (Q3 19:53) — (4:53) 2-M.Ryan pass left to 84-R.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q3 19:48) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 13–7. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 11 (Q4 14:04) — (14:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 53 (Q4 4:24) — (4:24) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 34-D.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 4:11) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q4 0:56) — (:56) (No Huddle) 33-M.Turner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 0:53) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 44:11) — (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles right end to ATL 23 for 14 yards (27-R.McClain). [WPA +7.4% · EPA +2.41]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 52:55) — (7:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.2% · EPA +3.44]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 45:58) — (:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard to ATL 36 for 2 yards (52-A.Dent). [WPA +5.3% · EPA +2.11]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 7:30) — (7:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 48 for -7 yards (76-G.Hardy). [WPA -5.3% · EPA -1.56]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 14:04) — (14:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.6% · EPA +2.25]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 26:13) — (11:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.5% · EPA +5.57]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 4:24) — (4:24) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 34-D.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +2.4% · EPA +5.57]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 52:55) — (7:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.2% · EPA +3.44]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 15:37) — (:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 84-R.White pushed ob at CAR 43 for 18 yards (59-L.Kuechly). [WPA +1.9% · EPA +2.44]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 54 dropbacks · 63.0% completion · +6.9% CPOE · +0.24 EPA/play · +12.77 total EPA
• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 41 dropbacks · 56.1% completion · +7.1% CPOE · +0.41 EPA/play · +16.97 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Carolina Panthers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.26 vs +0.16), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 8 drives, +12.87 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Carolina Panthers: 9 drives, +22.20 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• C. Newton (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Newton (CAR) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 52:55 · ATL 25 · Score 0-6
   (7:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 52:49 · ATL 2 · Score 0-7
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
3. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 40:58 · ATL 6 · Score 0-10
   (10:58) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
4. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 35:02 · ATL 23 · Score 0-13
   (5:02) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
5. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · ATL 13 · Score 0-16
   (:03) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
6. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 26:13 · ATL 72 · Score 0-22
   (11:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q3 26:01 · ATL 2 · Score 0-23
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
8. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 19:53 · CAR 4 · Score 6-23
   (4:53) 2-M.Ryan pass left to 84-R.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 19:48 · CAR 2 · Score 7-23
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
10. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 14:04 · CAR 11 · Score 13-23
    (14:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 4:24 · ATL 53 · Score 13-29
    (4:24) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 34-D.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 4:11 · ATL 2 · Score 13-30
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 0:56 · CAR 1 · Score 19-30
    (:56) (No Huddle) 33-M.Turner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 0:53 · CAR 2 · Score 20-30
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.