Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals: 2007 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-12-23, the Arizona Cardinals took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 30–27 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Warner (Arizona Cardinals) paced the passing game, with +14.20 total EPA, and +5.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Boldin (Arizona Cardinals) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.39 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+22.6% win probability) landed in overtime when Arizona Cardinals changed the game: (14:17) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass deep right to 81-A.Boldin to ATL 48 for 25 yards (43-B.Grimes).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Boldin · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +18.39 total EPA · 13 snaps · +1.41 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Warner · Arizona Cardinals · Passing · +14.20 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
3. 3 R. White · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +12.32 total EPA · 12 snaps · +1.03 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Redman · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +9.21 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
5. 5 L. Robinson · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +8.44 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Williams · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +4.94 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.94 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Fitzgerald · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +4.40 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Jennings · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.61 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Arizona Cardinals — A. Boldin (K. Warner pass) (Q1 49:19)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Snelling (Q1 46:06)
• Arizona Cardinals — A. Boldin (K. Warner pass) (Q2 38:20)
• Atlanta Falcons — L. Robinson (C. Redman pass) (Q2 38:05)
• Arizona Cardinals — J. Arrington (K. Warner pass) (Q2 30:20)
• Atlanta Falcons — A. Crumpler (C. Redman pass) (Q4 4:50)

Field goals

• Arizona Cardinals — N. Rackers (Q2 34:05)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Andersen (Q4 8:56)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Andersen (Q4 1:41)
• Arizona Cardinals — N. Rackers (Q4 0:04)
• Arizona Cardinals — N. Rackers (OT 9:36)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the ATL 4 (Q1 49:19) — (4:19) 13-K.Warner pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q1 49:14) — 1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ARI 1 (Q1 46:06) — (1:06) 44-J.Snelling left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q1 46:01) — 5-M.Andersen extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen..

The second quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 17–7. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the ATL 13 (Q2 38:20) — (8:20) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass short right to 81-A.Boldin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 38:10) — 1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ARI 74 (Q2 38:05) — (8:05) 8-C.Redman pass deep middle to 19-L.Robinson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q2 37:54) — 5-M.Andersen extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the ATL 14 (Q2 34:05) — (4:05) 1-N.Rackers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.; Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the ATL 4 (Q2 30:20) — (:20) 13-K.Warner pass short middle to 28-J.Arrington for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 30:16) — 1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 13–3. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the ARI 5 (Q4 8:56) — (8:56) 5-M.Andersen 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ARI 7 (Q4 4:50) — (4:50) (Shotgun) 8-C.Redman pass short middle to 83-A.Crumpler for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q4 4:45) — 5-M.Andersen extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the ARI 3 (Q4 1:41) — (1:41) 5-M.Andersen 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the ATL 11 (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 1-N.Rackers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger..

Overtime: Arizona Cardinals won the period 3–0. Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the ATL 13 (OT 9:36) — (9:36) 1-N.Rackers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Arizona Cardinals (OT 14:17) — (14:17) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass deep right to 81-A.Boldin to ATL 48 for 25 yards (43-B.Grimes). [WPA +22.6% · EPA +2.30]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 38:05) — (8:05) 8-C.Redman pass deep middle to 19-L.Robinson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.3% · EPA +5.93]
• Arizona Cardinals (OT 11:43) — (11:43) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald pushed ob at ATL 17 for 19 yards (23-C.Houston). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +1.65]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 1:29) — (1:29) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass deep middle to 80-Bry.Johnson to ARI 45 for 19 yards (56-K.Brooking). [WPA +13.0% · EPA +0.55]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 54:34) — (9:34) 8-C.Redman pass short right intended for 84-R.White INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Hood at ARI 0. Touchback. [WPA -13.0% · EPA -5.32]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 38:05) — (8:05) 8-C.Redman pass deep middle to 19-L.Robinson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.3% · EPA +5.93]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 54:34) — (9:34) 8-C.Redman pass short right intended for 84-R.White INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Hood at ARI 0. Touchback. [WPA -13.0% · EPA -5.32]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 48:34) — (3:34) (Punt formation) 52-T.Williams up the middle to ARI 29 for 37 yards (15-S.Breaston). [WPA +8.9% · EPA +4.94]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q3 25:12) — (10:12) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass short middle to 81-A.Boldin to ATL 37 for 31 yards (25-C.Crocker). [WPA +2.7% · EPA +2.55]

Quarterback report card

K.Warner led all passers in efficiency for Arizona Cardinals, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Warner (Arizona Cardinals) · 50 dropbacks · 72.0% completion · +5.2% CPOE · +0.28 EPA/play · +14.20 total EPA
• C.Redman (Atlanta Falcons) · 48 dropbacks · 58.3% completion · +3.4% CPOE · +0.19 EPA/play · +9.21 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Atlanta Falcons +0.09, Arizona Cardinals +0.06) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Arizona Cardinals: 13 drives, +6.62 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, +7.89 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Arizona Cardinals leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Boldin (Arizona Cardinals) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• K. Warner (ARI) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Redman (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q1 49:19 · ATL 4 · Score 0-6
   (4:19) 13-K.Warner pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q1 49:14 · ATL 2 · Score 0-7
   1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 46:06 · ARI 1 · Score 6-7
   (1:06) 44-J.Snelling left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 46:01 · ARI 2 · Score 7-7
   5-M.Andersen extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
5. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q2 38:20 · ATL 13 · Score 7-13
   (8:20) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass short right to 81-A.Boldin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q2 38:10 · ATL 2 · Score 7-14
   1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.
7. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 38:05 · ARI 74 · Score 13-14
   (8:05) 8-C.Redman pass deep middle to 19-L.Robinson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 37:54 · ARI 2 · Score 14-14
   5-M.Andersen extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
9. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — Q2 34:05 · ATL 14 · Score 14-17
   (4:05) 1-N.Rackers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.
10. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q2 30:20 · ATL 4 · Score 14-23
    (:20) 13-K.Warner pass short middle to 28-J.Arrington for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q2 30:16 · ATL 2 · Score 14-24
    1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.
12. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 8:56 · ARI 5 · Score 17-24
    (8:56) 5-M.Andersen 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 4:50 · ARI 7 · Score 23-24
    (4:50) (Shotgun) 8-C.Redman pass short middle to 83-A.Crumpler for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 4:45 · ARI 2 · Score 24-24
    5-M.Andersen extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
15. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 1:41 · ARI 3 · Score 27-24
    (1:41) 5-M.Andersen 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Schneck, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
16. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — Q4 0:04 · ATL 11 · Score 27-27
    (:04) 1-N.Rackers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.
17. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — OT 9:36 · ATL 13 · Score 27-30
    (9:36) 1-N.Rackers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-17-M.Berger.