Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots: 2008 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2008 NFL season on 2008-12-21, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Arizona Cardinals, pulling away with a 47–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Cassel (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +20.74 total EPA, and -8.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Cassel (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.74 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-5.4% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Arizona Cardinals changed the game: (12:57) 5-B.Graham punts 41 yards to NE 39, Center-48-N.Hodel. 83-W.Welker to ARI 33 for 28 yards (24-A.Wilson, 20-R.Brown).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Cassel · New England Patriots · Passing · +20.74 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
2. 2 L. Fitzgerald · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +8.88 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.96 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.19 total EPA · 2 snaps · +3.60 EPA/play
4. 4 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.87 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.49 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Urban · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +3.46 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.73 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Faulk · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.84 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Morris · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.65 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — L. Jordan (Q1 54:01)
• New England Patriots — L. Jordan (Q1 48:48)
• New England Patriots — K. Faulk (M. Cassel pass) (Q2 42:12)
• New England Patriots — W. Welker (M. Cassel pass) (Q2 31:57)
• New England Patriots — R. Moss (M. Cassel pass) (Q3 29:55)
• Arizona Cardinals — L. Fitzgerald (M. Leinart pass) (Q4 6:30)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 30:07)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 23:25)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 18:35)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 14:55)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the ARI 1 (Q1 54:01) — (9:01) NE 50-Vrabel eligible. 32-L.Jordan right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q1 53:57) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the ARI 3 (Q1 48:48) — (3:48) NE 71-Hochstein eligible. 32-L.Jordan up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q1 48:46) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 17–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the ARI 15 (Q2 42:12) — (12:12) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 33-K.Faulk for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q2 42:04) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the ARI 11 (Q2 31:57); New England Patriots added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q2 31:52) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ARI 20 (Q2 30:07) — (:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 13–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the ARI 76 (Q3 29:55); New England Patriots added 1 points from the ARI 2 (Q3 29:41) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ARI 17 (Q3 23:25); New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ARI 5 (Q3 18:35).

The fourth quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 7–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the ARI 12 (Q4 14:55) — (14:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the NE 78 (Q4 6:30) — (6:30) (Shotgun) 7-M.Leinart pass deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 6:17) — 1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-5-B.Graham..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 57:57) — (12:57) 5-B.Graham punts 41 yards to NE 39, Center-48-N.Hodel. 83-W.Welker to ARI 33 for 28 yards (24-A.Wilson, 20-R.Brown). [WPA -5.4% · EPA -1.55]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 58:34) — (13:34) (Shotgun) 34-T.Hightower left tackle to ARI 20 for -3 yards (50-M.Vrabel). [WPA -5.4% · EPA -1.66]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:01) — (9:01) NE 50-Vrabel eligible. 32-L.Jordan right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.4% · EPA +1.35]
• New England Patriots (Q1 51:16) — (6:16) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 34-S.Morris pushed ob at ARI 14 for 42 yards (26-R.Hood). [WPA +4.1% · EPA +3.06]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 52:33) — (7:33) 34-T.Hightower left guard to NE 48 for 9 yards (31-B.Meriweather). PENALTY on ARI-45-T.Smith, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 43 - No Play. [WPA -3.7% · EPA -1.54]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 6:30) — (6:30) (Shotgun) 7-M.Leinart pass deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.0% · EPA +7.17]
• New England Patriots (Q3 29:55) — (14:55) NE 71-Hochstein eligible. 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 81-R.Moss for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 136th career TD, ties Marshall Faulk (136) for 6th place on the NFL’s all-time touchdowns [WPA -0.2% · EPA +5.99]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q3 15:59) — (:59) (Shotgun) 7-M.Leinart sacked at ARI 15 for -12 yards (31-B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (31-B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by NE-97-J.Green at ARI 15. 97-J.Green to ARI 15 for no gain (69-M.Gandy). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -4.24]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 14:07) — (14:07) (Shotgun) 7-M.Leinart pass short middle intended for 85-J.Urban INTERCEPTED by 27-E.Hobbs at NE 37. 27-E.Hobbs to NE 30 for -7 yards (11-L.Fitzgerald). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -3.68]

Quarterback report card

M.Cassel led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Cassel (New England Patriots) · 39 dropbacks · 51.3% completion · -8.4% CPOE · +0.53 EPA/play · +20.74 total EPA
• K.Warner (Arizona Cardinals) · 19 dropbacks · 31.6% completion · -29.7% CPOE · -0.60 EPA/play · -11.45 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs -0.29), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Arizona Cardinals: 13 drives, -20.91 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +19.92 total EPA, 9 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Cassel (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Cassel (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• K. Warner (ARI) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 54:01 · ARI 1 · Score 0-6
   (9:01) NE 50-Vrabel eligible. 32-L.Jordan right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:57 · ARI 2 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 48:48 · ARI 3 · Score 0-13
   (3:48) NE 71-Hochstein eligible. 32-L.Jordan up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 48:46 · ARI 2 · Score 0-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 42:12 · ARI 15 · Score 0-20
   (12:12) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 33-K.Faulk for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 42:04 · ARI 2 · Score 0-21
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 31:57 · ARI 11 · Score 0-27
   (1:57) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right to 83-W.Welker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-83-W.Welker, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced bet
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:52 · ARI 2 · Score 0-28
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:07 · ARI 20 · Score 0-31
   (:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 29:55 · ARI 76 · Score 0-37
    (14:55) NE 71-Hochstein eligible. 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 81-R.Moss for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 136th career TD, ties Marshall Faulk (136) for 6t
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 29:41 · ARI 2 · Score 0-38
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 23:25 · ARI 17 · Score 0-41
    (8:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 32 FG on the season, tying Patriots record (Ton
13. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 18:35 · ARI 5 · Score 0-44
    (3:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 33 FG on the season, new Patriots record.
14. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 14:55 · ARI 12 · Score 0-47
    (14:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
15. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q4 6:30 · NE 78 · Score 6-47
    (6:30) (Shotgun) 7-M.Leinart pass deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q4 6:17 · NE 2 · Score 7-47
    1-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-5-B.Graham.