Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2016 NFL season on 2017-01-14, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Seattle Seahawks, pulling away with a 36–20 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +16.70 total EPA, and +3.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.70 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+11.6% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Seattle Seahawks changed the game: (10:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to ATL 26 for 18 yards (23-R.Alford).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +16.70 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +6.85 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
3. 3 P. Richardson · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +6.11 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.46 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.26 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Baldwin · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +3.04 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Gabriel · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Graham · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +2.51 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Seattle Seahawks — J. Graham (R. Wilson pass) (Q1 51:30)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 44:18)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Coleman (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:59)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q3 24:16)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Sanu (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 3:44)
• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q4 3:29)

Field goals

• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q2 41:23)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 36:09)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Hauschka (Q3 18:07)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 15:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 7–0. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the ATL 7 (Q1 51:30) — (6:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 51:26) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 19–3. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 7 (Q2 44:18) — (14:18) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q2 44:14) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the ATL 15 (Q2 41:23) — (11:23) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Atlanta Falcons registered a safety from the ATL 96 (Q2 39:28) — (9:28) 3-R.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (63-B.Garland).; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SEA 17 (Q2 36:09) — (6:09) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 14 (Q2 30:59) — (:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q2 30:53) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 7–3. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 1 (Q3 24:16) — (9:16) 76-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q3 24:12) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the ATL 8 (Q3 18:07) — (3:07) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–7. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SEA 13 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 3 (Q4 3:44) — (3:44) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q4 3:40) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the ATL 31 (Q4 3:29); Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 3:21) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Seattle Seahawks (Q1 55:24) — (10:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to ATL 26 for 18 yards (23-R.Alford). [WPA +11.6% · EPA +2.59]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q2 43:22) — (13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-P.Richardson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R [WPA +9.3% · EPA +2.65]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 39:15) — (9:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-T.Gabriel to SEA 20 for 37 yards (20-J.Lane). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +2.16]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q2 39:28) — (9:28) 3-R.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (63-B.Garland). [WPA -7.4% · EPA -0.54]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 44:18) — (14:18) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.6% · EPA +1.37]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 2:29) — (2:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 82-L.Willson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (32-J.Collins) at SEA 43. 45-D.Jones to SEA 15 for 28 yards (3-R.Wilson). [WPA -0.1% · EPA -5.53]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 8:31) — (8:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left intended for 36-A.Collins INTERCEPTED by 37-R.Allen [22-K.Neal] at ATL 9. 37-R.Allen pushed ob at SEA 46 for 45 yards (74-G.Fant). [WPA -2.1% · EPA -5.07]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:39) — (:39) 2-M.Ryan kneels to SEA 3 for -1 yards. [EPA -4.41]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 17:17) — (2:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman to SEA 16 for 53 yards (31-K.Chancellor; 21-D.Elliott). [WPA +1.6% · EPA +3.98]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 41 dropbacks · 63.4% completion · +3.2% CPOE · +0.41 EPA/play · +16.70 total EPA
• R.Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) · 39 dropbacks · 43.6% completion · +3.3% CPOE · -0.01 EPA/play · -0.55 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Atlanta Falcons held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.16 vs +0.02), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 10 drives, +14.16 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Seattle Seahawks: 10 drives, +1.13 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• R. Wilson (SEA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q1 51:30 · ATL 7 · Score 6-0
   (6:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q1 51:26 · ATL 15 · Score 7-0
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 44:18 · SEA 7 · Score 7-6
   (14:18) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 44:14 · SEA 15 · Score 7-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q2 41:23 · ATL 15 · Score 10-7
   (11:23) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
6. Atlanta Falcons Safety (+2) — Q2 39:28 · ATL 96 · Score 10-9
   (9:28) 3-R.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (63-B.Garland).
7. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 36:09 · SEA 17 · Score 10-12
   (6:09) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
8. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:59 · SEA 14 · Score 10-18
   (:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:53 · SEA 15 · Score 10-19
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
10. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 24:16 · SEA 1 · Score 10-25
    (9:16) 76-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 24:12 · SEA 15 · Score 10-26
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
12. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q3 18:07 · ATL 8 · Score 13-26
    (3:07) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
13. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 15:00 · SEA 13 · Score 13-29
    (15:00) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
14. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 3:44 · SEA 3 · Score 13-35
    (3:44) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 3:40 · SEA 15 · Score 13-36
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
16. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 3:29 · ATL 31 · Score 19-36
    (3:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
17. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 3:21 · ATL 15 · Score 20-36
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.