Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2012 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2012 NFL season on 2013-01-13, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Seattle Seahawks, pulling away with a 30–28 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) paced the passing game, with +23.29 total EPA, and +8.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +23.29 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-34.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Seattle Seahawks changed the game: (:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 89-D.Baldwin INTERCEPTED by 11-J.Jones at ATL 0. Touchback.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Wilson · Seattle Seahawks · Passing · +23.29 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
2. 2 Z. Miller · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +11.40 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +8.56 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Tate · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +5.95 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Turner · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +5.68 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Lynch · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +3.82 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Turbin · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +2.28 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.12 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gonzalez (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 48:12)
• Atlanta Falcons — R. White (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 34:23)
• Seattle Seahawks — G. Tate (R. Wilson pass) (Q3 24:53)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Snelling (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 17:11)
• Seattle Seahawks — R. Wilson (Q4 13:06)
• Seattle Seahawks — Z. Miller (R. Wilson pass) (Q4 9:19)
• Seattle Seahawks — M. Lynch (Q4 0:34)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 54:44)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 39:17)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 0:13)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SEA 21 (Q1 54:44) — (9:44) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 1 (Q1 48:12) — (3:12) 79-M.Johnson reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 88-T.Gonzalez for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 2 (Q1 48:10) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SEA 19 (Q2 39:17) — (9:17) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 47 (Q2 34:23); Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 2 (Q2 34:16) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the ATL 29 (Q3 24:53) — (9:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 81-G.Tate for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q3 24:47) — 7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SEA 5 (Q3 17:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 44-J.Snelling for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SEA 2 (Q3 17:11).

The fourth quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 21–3. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q4 13:06) — (13:06) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 13:01) — 7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the ATL 3 (Q4 9:19) — (9:19) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 86-Z.Miller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 9:13) — 7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q4 0:34); Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 0:31) — 7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SEA 31 (Q4 0:13) — (:13) 71-K.Biermann and 79-M.Johnson reported in as eligible. 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 0:02) — (:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 89-D.Baldwin INTERCEPTED by 11-J.Jones at ATL 0. Touchback. [WPA -34.5% · EPA -0.50]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 0:44) — (:44) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 24-M.Lynch pushed ob at ATL 3 for 24 yards (24-C.Hope). [WPA +22.0% · EPA +2.76]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:13) — (:13) 71-K.Biermann and 79-M.Johnson reported in as eligible. 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. [WPA +20.7% · EPA +0.89]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez to SEA 31 for 19 yards (29-E.Thomas). [WPA +16.5% · EPA +0.76]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q1 51:03) — (6:03) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch left tackle to ATL 39 for 11 yards (56-S.Weatherspoon). FUMBLES (56-S.Weatherspoon), RECOVERED by ATL-95-J.Babineaux at ATL 39. [WPA -13.5% · EPA -4.64]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Seattle Seahawks (Q1 51:03) — (6:03) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch left tackle to ATL 39 for 11 yards (56-S.Weatherspoon). FUMBLES (56-S.Weatherspoon), RECOVERED by ATL-95-J.Babineaux at ATL 39. [WPA -13.5% · EPA -4.64]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 34:23) — (4:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 84-R.White for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA +3.5% · EPA +4.23]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q2 35:38) — (5:38) 26-M.Robinson right guard to ATL 12 for -1 yards (25-W.Moore). [WPA -5.5% · EPA -3.79]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 51:58) — (6:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 88-T.Gonzalez INTERCEPTED by 54-B.Wagner [23-M.Trufant] at SEA 29. 54-B.Wagner to SEA 33 for 4 yards (84-R.White). [WPA -8.9% · EPA -3.61]

Quarterback report card

R.Wilson led all passers in efficiency for Seattle Seahawks, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) · 44 dropbacks · 54.5% completion · +8.4% CPOE · +0.53 EPA/play · +23.29 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 37 dropbacks · 64.9% completion · +9.3% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +8.56 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Seattle Seahawks +0.15, Atlanta Falcons +0.16) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Atlanta Falcons: 11 drives, +12.32 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Seattle Seahawks: 11 drives, +12.34 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Wilson (SEA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 54:44 · SEA 21 · Score 0-3
   (9:44) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
2. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 48:12 · SEA 1 · Score 0-9
   (3:12) 79-M.Johnson reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 88-T.Gonzalez for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 48:10 · SEA 2 · Score 0-10
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
4. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 39:17 · SEA 19 · Score 0-13
   (9:17) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 34:23 · SEA 47 · Score 0-19
   (4:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 84-R.White for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was U
6. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 34:16 · SEA 2 · Score 0-20
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
7. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q3 24:53 · ATL 29 · Score 6-20
   (9:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 81-G.Tate for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q3 24:47 · ATL 2 · Score 7-20
   7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 17:11 · SEA 5 · Score 7-26
   (2:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 44-J.Snelling for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 17:11 · SEA 2 · Score 7-27
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PENALTY on SEA-25-R.Sherman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
11. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 13:06 · ATL 1 · Score 13-27
    (13:06) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 13:01 · ATL 2 · Score 14-27
    7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
13. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 9:19 · ATL 3 · Score 20-27
    (9:19) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 86-Z.Miller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 9:13 · ATL 2 · Score 21-27
    7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
15. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 0:34 · ATL 2 · Score 27-27
    (:34) 24-M.Lynch right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld.
16. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 0:31 · ATL 2 · Score 28-27
    7-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
17. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 0:13 · SEA 31 · Score 28-30
    (:13) 71-K.Biermann and 79-M.Johnson reported in as eligible. 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.