New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Divisional Recap

Game story

In the Divisional of the 2018 NFL season on 2019-01-20, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 37–31 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 38 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +13.34 total EPA, and -0.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.13 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-31.0% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +14.13 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +13.34 total EPA · 49 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Watkins · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +8.27 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.03 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.22 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
5. 5 Dam. Williams · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.85 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Hogan · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.04 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
7. 7 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.01 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
8. 8 P. Dorsett · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.99 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — S. Michel (Q1 51:58)
• New England Patriots — P. Dorsett (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:33)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q3 28:00)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q4 14:56)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q4 7:52)
• New England Patriots — S. Michel (Q4 3:35)
• Kansas City Chiefs — unlisted player (Q4 2:06)
• New England Patriots — R. Burkhead (Q4 0:42)
• New England Patriots — R. Burkhead (OT 10:10)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 19:07)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 0:11)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q1 51:58) — (6:58) 26-S.Michel left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 51:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 29 (Q2 30:33) — (:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 30:27) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–3. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the NE 12 (Q3 28:00) — (13:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 27:56) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the KC 29 (Q3 19:07) — (4:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 24–14. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 14:56) — (14:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 14:51) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the NE 23 (Q4 7:52) — (7:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam. Williams for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 7:45) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 10 (Q4 3:35) — (3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 3:32) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q4 2:06) — (2:06) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 2:03) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 4 (Q4 0:42) — (:42) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 0:39) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the NE 21 (Q4 0:11) — (:11) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Overtime: New England Patriots won the period 6–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 2 (OT 10:10) — (10:10) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 8:06) — (8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel). [WPA -31.0% · EPA -5.27]
• New England Patriots (OT 13:40) — (13:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to KC 45 for 20 yards (49-D.Sorensen). [WPA +27.4% · EPA +2.78]
• New England Patriots (Q4 0:54) — (:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to KC 4 for 25 yards (29-E.Berry). [WPA +24.1% · EPA +2.45]
• New England Patriots (OT 12:51) — (12:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to KC 30 for 15 yards (35-C.Ward). [WPA +23.4% · EPA +2.25]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 2:54) — (2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +20.3% · EPA +3.86]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 43:45) — (13:45) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 59-R.Ragland at KC -5. Touchback. [WPA -15.4% · EPA -6.44]
• New England Patriots (Q4 8:06) — (8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel). [WPA -31.0% · EPA -5.27]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 28:50) — (13:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to NE 12 for 54 yards (24-S.Gilmore). [WPA +7.1% · EPA +3.89]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 2:54) — (2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +20.3% · EPA +3.86]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 49 dropbacks · 61.2% completion · -0.8% CPOE · +0.27 EPA/play · +13.34 total EPA
• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 40 dropbacks · 40.0% completion · -3.3% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +14.13 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.15, Kansas City Chiefs +0.15) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 12 drives, +10.12 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +17.04 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 51:58 · KC 1 · Score 6-0
   (6:58) 26-S.Michel left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 51:55 · KC 15 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:33 · KC 29 · Score 13-0
   (:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:27 · KC 15 · Score 14-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
5. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 28:00 · NE 12 · Score 14-6
   (13:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 27:56 · NE 15 · Score 14-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 19:07 · KC 29 · Score 17-7
   (4:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
8. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 14:56 · NE 1 · Score 17-13
   (14:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 14:51 · NE 15 · Score 17-14
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
10. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 7:52 · NE 23 · Score 17-20
    (7:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam. Williams for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 7:45 · NE 15 · Score 17-21
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:35 · KC 10 · Score 23-21
    (3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:32 · KC 15 · Score 24-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
14. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 2:06 · NE 2 · Score 24-27
    (2:06) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 2:03 · NE 15 · Score 24-28
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
16. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 0:42 · KC 4 · Score 30-28
    (:42) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 0:39 · KC 15 · Score 31-28
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
18. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 0:11 · NE 21 · Score 31-31
    (:11) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
19. New England Patriots TD (+6) — OT 10:10 · KC 2 · Score 37-31
    (10:10) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.