Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2023 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2023 NFL season on 2024-01-13, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 26–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +17.62 total EPA, and -1.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.62 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+12.9% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +17.62 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Rice · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +10.01 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +4.41 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
4. 4 N. Gray · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.87 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.87 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Edwards-Helaire · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.71 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.71 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Cracraft · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.40 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
7. 7 Ju. Watson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +0.98 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Wilson · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +0.94 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — R. Rice (P. Mahomes pass) (Q1 56:10)
• Miami Dolphins — T. Hill (T. Tagovailoa pass) (Q2 44:11)
• Kansas City Chiefs — I. Pacheco (Q4 11:12)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 44:55)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 37:39)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 30:22)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q3 22:52)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the MIA 11 (Q1 56:10) — (11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 56:05) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 9–7. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the MIA 10 (Q2 44:55) — (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the KC 53 (Q2 44:11); Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 44:01) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the MIA 8 (Q2 37:39) — (7:39) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the MIA 14 (Q2 30:22) — (:22) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 3–0. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the MIA 3 (Q3 22:52) — (7:52) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the MIA 3 (Q4 11:12) — (11:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q4 11:06) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley). [WPA +12.9% · EPA +4.56]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 44:11) — (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +11.3% · EPA +4.19]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at MIA 17 for 39 yards (4-K.Kohou) [29-B.Jones]. [WPA +8.7% · EPA +3.29]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 34:35) — (4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie). [WPA -8.4% · EPA -3.05]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 48:11) — (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Edwards [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 42. 21-M.Edwards to KC 42 for no gain (10-T.Hill). [WPA -7.8% · EPA -3.12]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley). [WPA +12.9% · EPA +4.56]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 44:11) — (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +11.3% · EPA +4.19]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at MIA 17 for 39 yards (4-K.Kohou) [29-B.Jones]. [WPA +8.7% · EPA +3.29]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 48:11) — (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Edwards [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 42. 21-M.Edwards to KC 42 for no gain (10-T.Hill). [WPA -7.8% · EPA -3.12]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 47 dropbacks · 48.9% completion · -1.6% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +17.62 total EPA
• T.Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) · 45 dropbacks · 44.4% completion · -16.1% CPOE · -0.28 EPA/play · -12.58 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Kansas City Chiefs held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.07 vs -0.22), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 10 drives, +6.72 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 11 drives, -16.50 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Tagovailoa (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 56:10 · MIA 11 · Score 0-6
   (11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 56:05 · MIA 15 · Score 0-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
3. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 44:55 · MIA 10 · Score 0-10
   (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
4. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 44:11 · KC 53 · Score 6-10
   (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
5. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 44:01 · KC 15 · Score 7-10
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
6. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 37:39 · MIA 8 · Score 7-13
   (7:39) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
7. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:22 · MIA 14 · Score 7-16
   (:22) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
8. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q3 22:52 · MIA 3 · Score 7-19
   (7:52) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
9. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 11:12 · MIA 3 · Score 7-25
   (11:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 11:06 · MIA 15 · Score 7-26
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.