Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: 2022 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2022 NFL season on 2023-01-15, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 34–31 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 26 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

S. Thompson (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with -9.17 total EPA, and -17.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, S. Diggs (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.60 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-28.3% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.60 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
2. 2 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.15 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Ahmed · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.11 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Waddle · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +1.86 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.86 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Wilson · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.51 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.51 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Smythe · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.42 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.42 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Wilson · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.25 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.00 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q1 53:02)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q1 50:12)
• Miami Dolphins — M. Gesicki (S. Thompson pass) (Q2 30:37)
• Miami Dolphins — Z. Sieler (Q3 29:07)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Beasley (J. Allen pass) (Q3 20:22)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q3 17:12)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Wilson (Q4 10:55)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 42:49)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q2 37:38)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q2 32:20)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q2 31:19)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q2 31:15)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 30:07)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 6 (Q1 53:02) — (8:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 52:57) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 12 (Q1 50:12) — (5:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 50:07) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 20–6. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 15 (Q2 42:49) — (12:49) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the BUF 22 (Q2 37:38) — (7:38) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the BUF 30 (Q2 32:20) — (2:20) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the BUF 19 (Q2 31:19) — (1:19) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the MIA 35 (Q2 31:15) — 7-J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback. Kick through end zone.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q2 30:37) — (:37) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q2 30:33) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 19-S.Thompson pass to 10-T.Hill is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Pass caught 3 yds. into end zone.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 21 (Q2 30:07) — (:07) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–7. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the MIA 70 (Q3 29:07); Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 28:59) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 6 (Q3 20:22) — (5:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 20:18) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 23 (Q3 17:12) — (2:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 17:07) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 10:55) — (10:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 10:53) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 29:07) — (14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -28.3% · EPA -8.83]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 53:51) — (8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to MIA 6 for 52 yards (25-X.Howard). [WPA +17.4% · EPA +5.14]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 31:04) — (1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 11-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland (28-K.Kohou) at BUF 47. 8-J.Holland pushed ob at BUF 18 for 29 yards (26-D.Singletary). [WPA -12.2% · EPA -4.78]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:29) — (2:29) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki (24-K.Elam). BUF-24-K.Elam was injured during the play. K.Elam walks off. [WPA -11.3% · EPA -1.91]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 52:28) — (7:28) (No Huddle) 19-S.Thompson pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Marlowe at MIA 33. 31-D.Marlowe to MIA 23 for 10 yards (30-A.Ingold). [WPA -10.3% · EPA -5.10]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 29:07) — (14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -28.3% · EPA -8.83]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 53:51) — (8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to MIA 6 for 52 yards (25-X.Howard). [WPA +17.4% · EPA +5.14]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 52:28) — (7:28) (No Huddle) 19-S.Thompson pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Marlowe at MIA 33. 31-D.Marlowe to MIA 23 for 10 yards (30-A.Ingold). [WPA -10.3% · EPA -5.10]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 36:18) — (6:18) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 16-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 3. 25-X.Howard to BUF 48 for 49 yards (88-D.Knox). Penalty on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Unnecessary Roughness, offse [WPA -6.4% · EPA -5.00]

Quarterback report card

S.Thompson led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• S.Thompson (Miami Dolphins) · 53 dropbacks · 34.0% completion · -17.0% CPOE · -0.17 EPA/play · -9.17 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 50 dropbacks · 46.0% completion · +5.5% CPOE · -0.21 EPA/play · -10.48 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Miami Dolphins -0.15, Buffalo Bills -0.15) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 16 drives, -14.01 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 16 drives, -14.64 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• S. Diggs (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• S. Thompson (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 53:02 · MIA 6 · Score 0-6
   (8:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 52:57 · MIA 15 · Score 0-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 50:12 · MIA 12 · Score 0-13
   (5:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 50:07 · MIA 15 · Score 0-14
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 42:49 · MIA 15 · Score 0-17
   (12:49) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
6. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q2 37:38 · BUF 22 · Score 3-17
   (7:38) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
7. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q2 32:20 · BUF 30 · Score 6-17
   (2:20) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
8. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q2 31:19 · BUF 19 · Score 9-17
   (1:19) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
9. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q2 31:15 · MIA 35 · Score 9-17
   7-J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback. Kick through end zone.
10. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 30:37 · BUF 7 · Score 15-17
    (:37) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Miami Dolphins Safety (+2) — Q2 30:33 · BUF 2 · Score 17-17
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 19-S.Thompson pass to 10-T.Hill is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Pass caught 3 yds. into end zone.
12. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:07 · MIA 21 · Score 17-20
    (:07) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
13. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 29:07 · MIA 70 · Score 23-20
    (14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sie
14. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 28:59 · BUF 15 · Score 24-20
    7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 20:22 · MIA 6 · Score 24-26
    (5:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 20:18 · MIA 15 · Score 24-27
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
17. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 17:12 · MIA 23 · Score 24-33
    (2:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 17:07 · MIA 15 · Score 24-34
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
19. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 10:55 · BUF 1 · Score 30-34
    (10:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
20. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 10:53 · BUF 15 · Score 31-34
    7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.