Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2020 Conf. Championship Recap

Game story

In the Conf. Championship of the 2020 NFL season on 2021-02-07, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 31–9 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with -10.69 total EPA, and -8.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.27 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+7.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (6:15) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on KC-17-M.Hardman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 22 - No Play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +13.27 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Gronkowski · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +7.66 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.09 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Fournette · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Rushing · +3.50 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Fournette · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +3.45 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Edwards-Helaire · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +2.49 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.07 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.07 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Robinson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.01 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Brate · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.51 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q1 45:41)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 36:11)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — A. Brown (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:10)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — L. Fournette (Q3 22:51)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q1 50:14)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 31:04)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q3 26:31)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Succop (Q3 17:50)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–3. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the TB 31 (Q1 50:14) — (5:14) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the KC 8 (Q1 45:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 45:37) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the KC 17 (Q2 36:11) — (6:11) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 36:05) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the TB 14 (Q2 31:04) — (1:04) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q2 30:10); Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 30:06) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–3. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the TB 34 (Q3 26:31) — (11:31) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the KC 27 (Q3 22:51) — (7:51) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 22:45) — 3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the KC 34 (Q3 17:50) — (2:50) 3-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 36:15) — (6:15) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. PENALTY on KC-17-M.Hardman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 22 - No Play. [WPA +7.3% · EPA +2.13]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 40:55) — (10:55) 73-J.Haeg and 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones right guard to KC 1 for no gain (54-D.Wilson; 56-B.Niemann). Tampa Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was [WPA -5.8% · EPA -3.70]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 54:22) — (9:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 29 for -6 yards (55-F.Clark). [WPA -5.8% · EPA -1.65]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 44:46) — (14:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski pushed ob at TB 33 for 3 yards (54-D.Wilson). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 33. [WPA +5.7% · EPA +1.76]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 57:48) — (12:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end ran ob at KC 47 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield). [WPA +5.2% · EPA +2.07]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 1:40) — (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 0. Touchback. [WPA -0.1% · EPA -4.27]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 40:55) — (10:55) 73-J.Haeg and 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones right guard to KC 1 for no gain (54-D.Wilson; 56-B.Niemann). Tampa Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was [WPA -5.8% · EPA -3.70]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 13:43) — (13:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 31-Darr.Williams [92-W.Gholston]. [WPA -0.2% · EPA -3.06]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 22:51) — (7:51) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.1% · EPA +2.87]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 61 dropbacks · 42.6% completion · -8.8% CPOE · -0.18 EPA/play · -10.69 total EPA
• T.Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 34 dropbacks · 61.8% completion · +3.8% CPOE · +0.39 EPA/play · +13.27 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs -0.09), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11 drives, -7.72 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11 drives, +15.97 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Brady (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 50:14 · TB 31 · Score 3-0
   (5:14) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q1 45:41 · KC 8 · Score 3-6
   (:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q1 45:37 · KC 15 · Score 3-7
   3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 36:11 · KC 17 · Score 3-13
   (6:11) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 36:05 · KC 15 · Score 3-14
   3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
6. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 31:04 · TB 14 · Score 6-14
   (1:04) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:10 · KC 1 · Score 6-20
   (:10) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-A.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-32-T.Mathieu, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:06 · KC 15 · Score 6-21
   3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
9. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q3 26:31 · TB 34 · Score 9-21
   (11:31) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 22:51 · KC 27 · Score 9-27
    (7:51) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 22:45 · KC 15 · Score 9-28
    3-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 17:50 · KC 34 · Score 9-31
    (2:50) 3-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.