Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots: 2015 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2015 NFL season on 2016-01-16, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 27–20 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +7.74 total EPA, and -0.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.60 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+15.1% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (12:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to KC 11 for 32 yards (49-D.Sorensen; 29-E.Berry).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.60 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Avant · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +7.93 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.59 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Smith · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +7.74 total EPA · 59 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.72 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.43 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Maclin · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.16 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Martin · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.80 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Wilson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +0.74 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.07 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q1 55:27)
• New England Patriots — T. Brady (Q2 33:25)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 23:29)
• Kansas City Chiefs — A. Wilson (A. Smith pass) (Q3 17:17)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. West (Q4 1:18)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (Q1 46:55)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (Q2 30:16)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 14:49)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 10:24)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 8 (Q1 55:27); New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 55:23); Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the NE 16 (Q1 46:55) — (1:55) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q2 33:25); New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 33:23) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the NE 14 (Q2 30:16) — (:16) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the KC 16 (Q3 23:29); New England Patriots added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 23:24) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the NE 10 (Q3 17:17) — (2:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 12-A.Wilson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-R.Ninkovich].; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 17:12) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–6. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the KC 22 (Q4 14:49) — (14:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the KC 13 (Q4 10:24); Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) (Shotgun) 35-C.West right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 1:13) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 57:04) — (12:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to KC 11 for 32 yards (49-D.Sorensen; 29-E.Berry). [WPA +15.1% · EPA +3.56]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 25:44) — (10:44) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 34-K.Davis to NE 31 for 9 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at NE 31. 54-D.Hightower to NE 31 for no gain (75-J.R [WPA -8.1% · EPA -4.48]
• New England Patriots (Q1 57:48) — (12:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 19-B.LaFell to KC 43 for -3 yards (55-D.Ford). [WPA -7.8% · EPA -1.59]
• New England Patriots (Q2 38:06) — (8:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 82-K.Martin pushed ob at KC 49 for 42 yards (29-E.Berry). [WPA +7.7% · EPA +2.78]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 46:55) — (1:55) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. [WPA +6.4% · EPA +0.26]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 25:44) — (10:44) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 34-K.Davis to NE 31 for 9 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at NE 31. 54-D.Hightower to NE 31 for no gain (75-J.R [WPA -8.1% · EPA -4.48]
• New England Patriots (Q1 57:04) — (12:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to KC 11 for 32 yards (49-D.Sorensen; 29-E.Berry). [WPA +15.1% · EPA +3.56]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 4:42) — (4:42) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 81-J.Avant to NE 47 for 13 yards (26-L.Ryan). [WPA +2.6% · EPA +3.36]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 22:39) — (7:39) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 81-J.Avant to KC 49 for 26 yards (26-L.Ryan). [WPA +3.2% · EPA +3.11]

Quarterback report card

A.Smith led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) · 59 dropbacks · 49.2% completion · -0.4% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +7.74 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 44 dropbacks · 63.6% completion · +0.9% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +11.60 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs +0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 9 drives, +2.88 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +8.75 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 55:27 · KC 8 · Score 0-6
   (10:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 87-Gronkowski 7th career postseason receiving TD, ties David Givens f
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 55:23 · KC 15 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 118 career postseason points, new franchise record (Vinatieri
3. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 46:55 · NE 16 · Score 3-7
   (1:55) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:25 · KC 1 · Score 3-13
   (3:25) 60-D.Andrews reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 6th career postseason rush TD, 2nd in franchise history
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 33:23 · KC 15 · Score 3-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:16 · NE 14 · Score 6-14
   (:16) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 23:29 · KC 16 · Score 6-20
   (8:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 17th career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 23:24 · KC 15 · Score 6-21
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 17:17 · NE 10 · Score 12-21
   (2:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 12-A.Wilson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-R.Ninkovich].
10. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 17:12 · NE 15 · Score 13-21
    5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
11. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 14:49 · KC 22 · Score 13-24
    (14:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 10:24 · KC 13 · Score 13-27
    (10:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 126 career postseason points, ties Thurman Tho
13. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 1:18 · NE 1 · Score 19-27
    (1:18) (Shotgun) 35-C.West right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 1:13 · NE 15 · Score 20-27
    5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.