Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots: 2013 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2013 NFL season on 2014-01-11, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 43–22 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with -2.16 total EPA, and -5.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.59 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.3% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (13:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 15-L.Brazill INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Dennard at IND 29. 37-A.Dennard to IND 2 for 27 yards (12-A.Luck).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +8.59 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +7.30 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Blount · New England Patriots · Rushing · +6.84 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.68 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Whalen · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.30 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.18 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.04 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Ridley · New England Patriots · Rushing · +3.15 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Vereen · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.63 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q1 58:45)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q1 52:19)
• Indianapolis Colts — L. Brazill (A. Luck pass) (Q1 49:43)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q2 40:58)
• New England Patriots — S. Ridley (Q3 21:23)
• Indianapolis Colts — L. Brazill (A. Luck pass) (Q3 20:08)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q4 13:08)
• New England Patriots — S. Ridley (Q4 11:15)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 35:40)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 25:06)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q1 58:45) — (13:45) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th career postseason start, most ever by a QB (Favre 24).; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 58:41) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q1 52:19) — (7:19) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 52:17) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 38 (Q1 49:43) — (4:43) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 15-L.Brazill for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 49:35).

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–5. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q2 40:58); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 40:54) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 18 (Q2 35:40) — (5:40) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the IND 56 (Q2 32:28).

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–8. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 3 (Q3 25:06) — (10:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 3 (Q3 21:23) — (6:23) 22-S.Ridley right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q3 21:18); Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 35 (Q3 20:08) — (5:08) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 15-L.Brazill for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Cha.Jones].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 20:01) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 73 (Q4 13:08); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 12:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-12-T.Brady.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q4 11:15); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 11:12).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 58:53) — (13:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 15-L.Brazill INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Dennard at IND 29. 37-A.Dennard to IND 2 for 27 yards (12-A.Luck). [WPA -16.3% · EPA -6.18]
• New England Patriots (Q4 13:08) — (13:08) 29-L.Blount right guard for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 4 rush TD franchise record for any game (regular season or postseason). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +5.71]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 27:43) — (12:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton to NE 20 for 40 yards (31-A.Talib). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +4.14]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:24) — (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 39-S.Havili INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Hightower at NE 33. 54-D.Hightower to NE 36 for 3 yards (69-H.Thornton). [WPA -8.9% · EPA -4.01]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 20:08) — (5:08) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 15-L.Brazill for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Cha.Jones]. [WPA +8.7% · EPA +3.69]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 58:53) — (13:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 15-L.Brazill INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Dennard at IND 29. 37-A.Dennard to IND 2 for 27 yards (12-A.Luck). [WPA -16.3% · EPA -6.18]
• New England Patriots (Q4 13:08) — (13:08) 29-L.Blount right guard for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 4 rush TD franchise record for any game (regular season or postseason). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +5.71]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 12:55) — (12:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle intended for 80-C.Fleener INTERCEPTED by 91-J.Collins at IND 38. 91-J.Collins to IND 18 for 20 yards (69-H.Thornton). [WPA -1.7% · EPA -4.22]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 27:43) — (12:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton to NE 20 for 40 yards (31-A.Talib). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +4.14]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 45 dropbacks · 44.4% completion · -5.7% CPOE · -0.05 EPA/play · -2.16 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 28 dropbacks · 46.4% completion · -7.5% CPOE · +0.31 EPA/play · +8.59 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.18 vs -0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Indianapolis Colts: 14 drives, -2.42 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 14 drives, +16.79 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 58:45 · IND 2 · Score 0-6
   (13:45) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th career postseason start, most ever by a QB (Favre 24).
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 58:41 · IND 2 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 52:19 · IND 2 · Score 0-13
   (7:19) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 52:17 · IND 2 · Score 0-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 49:43 · NE 38 · Score 6-14
   (4:43) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 15-L.Brazill for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 49:35 · NE 2 · Score 7-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 4-Vinatieri 59th career postseason PAT, new NFL record (David Akers 58).
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 40:58 · IND 2 · Score 7-20
   (10:58) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 3 rush TD in postseason game ties franchise record (Curtis Martin vs Pitt 1/5/97)
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 40:54 · IND 2 · Score 7-21
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 35:40 · NE 18 · Score 10-21
   (5:40) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
10. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q2 32:28 · IND 56 · Score 12-21
    (2:28) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen Aborted. 48-D.Aiken FUMBLES at NE 44, recovered by NE-6-R.Allen at NE 3. 6-R.Allen to NE 3 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at NE
11. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 25:06 · NE 3 · Score 15-21
    (10:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 21:23 · IND 3 · Score 15-27
    (6:23) 22-S.Ridley right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q3 21:18 · IND 2 · Score 15-29
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-S.Ridley rushes left tackle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. PENALTY on IND-20-D.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between do
14. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 20:08 · NE 35 · Score 21-29
    (5:08) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 15-L.Brazill for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Cha.Jones].
15. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 20:01 · NE 2 · Score 22-29
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
16. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 13:08 · IND 73 · Score 22-35
    (13:08) 29-L.Blount right guard for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 4 rush TD franchise record for any game (regular season or postseason).
17. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 12:55 · IND 2 · Score 22-36
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-12-T.Brady.
18. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 11:15 · IND 1 · Score 22-42
    (11:15) 22-S.Ridley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 rush TD is new franchise record for any game (regular season or postseason). NFL record for rush TD
19. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 11:12 · IND 2 · Score 22-43
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-12-T.Brady. PENALTY on IND-38-S.Brown, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.