Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots: 2016 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2016 NFL season on 2017-01-14, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Houston Texans, pulling away with a 34–16 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Osweiler (Houston Texans) paced the passing game, with -20.00 total EPA, and -5.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Hogan (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.31 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+10.7% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: 8-N.Novak kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to NE 2. 33-D.Lewis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1st postseason kickoff return TD in franchise history.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Hogan · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.31 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.08 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Fiedorowicz · Houston Texans · Receiving · +4.26 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Grimes · Houston Texans · Receiving · +3.80 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
4. 4 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.02 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.02 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.24 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.37 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.37 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.02 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +0.61 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.01 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (T. Brady pass) (Q1 54:34)
• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (Q1 46:15)
• Houston Texans — C. Fiedorowicz (B. Osweiler pass) (Q2 40:54)
• New England Patriots — J. White (T. Brady pass) (Q3 24:14)
• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (Q4 12:18)

Field goals

• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q1 46:19)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q2 41:39)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 30:10)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q4 14:55)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 6:40)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 13 (Q1 54:34) — (9:34) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-88-M.Bennett was injured during the play.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q1 54:27); Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the NE 15 (Q1 46:19) — (1:19) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 35 (Q1 46:15) — 8-N.Novak kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to NE 2. 33-D.Lewis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1st postseason kickoff return TD in franchise history.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q1 46:00) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: Houston Texans won the period 10–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the NE 9 (Q2 41:39) — (11:39) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 10 (Q2 40:54) — (10:54) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 40:49) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 1 (Q2 30:10) — (:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 19 (Q3 24:14); New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q3 24:09) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the NE 28 (Q4 14:55) — (14:55) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 1 (Q4 12:18); New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q4 12:16) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU-98-D.Reader was injured during the play.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 24 (Q4 6:40) — (6:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 46:15) — 8-N.Novak kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to NE 2. 33-D.Lewis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1st postseason kickoff return TD in franchise history. [WPA +10.7% · EPA +5.62]
• New England Patriots (Q2 37:37) — (7:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan to HOU 37 for 45 yards (43-C.Moore). [WPA +9.9% · EPA +3.94]
• New England Patriots (Q2 33:08) — (3:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman to HOU 18 for 48 yards (29-A.Hal; 25-K.Jackson). NE 11-Edelman 70th career postseason reception, new franchise record and tied for 9th all-ti [WPA +9.9% · EPA +4.00]
• New England Patriots (Q2 41:36) — 8-N.Novak kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to NE 3. 33-D.Lewis to NE 17 for 14 yards (50-A.Dent). FUMBLES (50-A.Dent), RECOVERED by HOU-35-E.Pleasant at NE 12. 35-E.Pleasant to NE 12 for no gain (82-M.Lenge [WPA -9.3% · EPA -6.37]
• Houston Texans (Q4 13:00) — (13:00) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at HOU 29. 26-L.Ryan to HOU 6 for 23 yards (10-D.Hopkins). [WPA -7.6% · EPA -5.44]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 41:36) — 8-N.Novak kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to NE 3. 33-D.Lewis to NE 17 for 14 yards (50-A.Dent). FUMBLES (50-A.Dent), RECOVERED by HOU-35-E.Pleasant at NE 12. 35-E.Pleasant to NE 12 for no gain (82-M.Lenge [WPA -9.3% · EPA -6.37]
• New England Patriots (Q1 46:15) — 8-N.Novak kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to NE 2. 33-D.Lewis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1st postseason kickoff return TD in franchise history. [WPA +10.7% · EPA +5.62]
• Houston Texans (Q4 13:00) — (13:00) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at HOU 29. 26-L.Ryan to HOU 6 for 23 yards (10-D.Hopkins). [WPA -7.6% · EPA -5.44]
• Houston Texans (Q4 3:17) — (3:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep middle intended for 84-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon at NE 3. 30-D.Harmon to NE 34 for 31 yards (71-X.Su'a-Filo). [WPA -0.1% · EPA -5.16]

Quarterback report card

B.Osweiler led all passers in efficiency for Houston Texans, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Osweiler (Houston Texans) · 47 dropbacks · 48.9% completion · -5.1% CPOE · -0.43 EPA/play · -20.00 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 43 dropbacks · 41.9% completion · -7.1% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.61 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.09 vs -0.26), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Houston Texans: 16 drives, -23.47 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 16 drives, -7.53 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• C. Hogan (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Osweiler (HOU) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 54:34 · HOU 13 · Score 0-6
   (9:34) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-88-M.Bennett was injured during the play.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 54:27 · HOU 15 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 133 career postseason points, passing Jerry Rice for 4th all-
3. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q1 46:19 · NE 15 · Score 3-7
   (1:19) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 46:15 · HOU 35 · Score 3-13
   8-N.Novak kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to NE 2. 33-D.Lewis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1st postseason kickoff return TD in franchise history.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 46:00 · HOU 15 · Score 3-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 41:39 · NE 9 · Score 6-14
   (11:39) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
7. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 40:54 · NE 10 · Score 12-14
   (10:54) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 40:49 · NE 15 · Score 13-14
   8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:10 · HOU 1 · Score 13-17
   (:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 24:14 · HOU 19 · Score 13-23
    (9:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 28-J.White for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 18th career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL recor
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 24:09 · HOU 15 · Score 13-24
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 14:55 · NE 28 · Score 16-24
    (14:55) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 12:18 · HOU 1 · Score 16-30
    (12:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33-Lewis 3rd TD, 5th Patriot to score 3 TD in a postseason game
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 12:16 · HOU 15 · Score 16-31
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU-98-D.Reader was injured during the play.
15. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 6:40 · HOU 24 · Score 16-34
    (6:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.