Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots: 2011 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2011 NFL season on 2012-01-14, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 45–10 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +22.30 total EPA, and +15.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +22.30 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-11.8% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (10:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at NE 41 for -4 yards (50-R.Ninkovich). FUMBLES (50-R.Ninkovich) [50-R.Ninkovich], RECOVERED by NE-55-B.Spikes at NE 41. 55-B.Spikes to NE 41 for no gain (74-O.Fran

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +22.30 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.64 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +11.54 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Branch · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.46 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.87 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Thomas · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +6.60 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
5. 5 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.76 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Rushing · +4.37 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
7. 7 W. McGahee · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +3.11 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.93 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — W. Welker (T. Brady pass) (Q1 58:14)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q1 52:17)
• Denver Broncos — W. McGahee (Q2 45:00)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 37:49)
• New England Patriots — D. Branch (T. Brady pass) (Q2 32:06)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:10)
• New England Patriots — A. Hernandez (T. Brady pass) (Q3 26:53)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q3 17:19)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 12:44)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 7 (Q1 58:14); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 58:09) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 10 (Q1 52:17); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 51:42) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 21–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q2 45:00); Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 44:54) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-54-D.Binn, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 12 (Q2 37:49); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 37:42) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 61 (Q2 32:06); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 31:57) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 19 (Q2 30:10); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 30:05) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 17 (Q3 26:53); New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 26:46) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 23 (Q3 17:19) — (2:19) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Binn, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 2 (Q4 12:44) — (12:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q1 55:14) — (10:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at NE 41 for -4 yards (50-R.Ninkovich). FUMBLES (50-R.Ninkovich) [50-R.Ninkovich], RECOVERED by NE-55-B.Spikes at NE 41. 55-B.Spikes to NE 41 for no gain (74-O.Fran [WPA -11.8% · EPA -4.87]
• New England Patriots (Q1 58:50) — (13:50) (No Huddle) 81-A.Hernandez left end to DEN 7 for 43 yards (25-C.Harris; 28-Q.Carter). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +2.59]
• New England Patriots (Q1 47:11) — (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 28-Q.Carter at NE 41. 28-Q.Carter to NE 24 for 17 yards (81-A.Hernandez). [WPA -9.4% · EPA -5.35]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 57:14) — (12:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow scrambles left end to DEN 43 for 14 yards (24-K.Arrington; 25-P.Chung). [WPA +5.4% · EPA +1.88]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 23-W.McGahee up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-68-Z.Beadles, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. [WPA +5.0% · EPA +1.48]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q4 8:18) — (8:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass short left to 88-D.Thomas pushed ob at NE 3 for 41 yards (24-K.Arrington). [WPA +0.0% · EPA +5.69]
• New England Patriots (Q2 32:06) — (2:06) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-D.Branch for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 4 TD passes in game, new franchise postseason record. [WPA +3.0% · EPA +5.40]
• New England Patriots (Q1 47:11) — (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 28-Q.Carter at NE 41. 28-Q.Carter to NE 24 for 17 yards (81-A.Hernandez). [WPA -9.4% · EPA -5.35]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 55:14) — (10:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at NE 41 for -4 yards (50-R.Ninkovich). FUMBLES (50-R.Ninkovich) [50-R.Ninkovich], RECOVERED by NE-55-B.Spikes at NE 41. 55-B.Spikes to NE 41 for no gain (74-O.Fran [WPA -11.8% · EPA -4.87]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 35 dropbacks · 74.3% completion · +15.1% CPOE · +0.64 EPA/play · +22.30 total EPA
• T.Tebow (Denver Broncos) · 32 dropbacks · 28.1% completion · -20.5% CPOE · -0.15 EPA/play · -4.87 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.31 vs -0.12), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Denver Broncos: 13 drives, -10.70 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +24.17 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Tebow (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 58:14 · DEN 7 · Score 0-6
   (13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 18th consecutive postseason game with a TD pass, 2n
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 58:09 · DEN 2 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 52:17 · DEN 10 · Score 0-13
   (7:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 32nd career postseason TD pass, ties Dan Marino f
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 51:42 · DEN 2 · Score 0-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
5. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · NE 5 · Score 6-14
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 23-W.McGahee up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-68-Z.Beadles, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
6. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 44:54 · NE 2 · Score 7-14
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-54-D.Binn, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 37:49 · DEN 12 · Score 7-20
   (7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 33rd career postseason TD pass, 3rd all-time.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 37:42 · DEN 2 · Score 7-21
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 32:06 · DEN 61 · Score 7-27
   (2:06) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-D.Branch for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 4 TD passes in game, new franchise postseason record.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:57 · DEN 2 · Score 7-28
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:10 · DEN 19 · Score 7-34
    (:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-V.Miller]. NE 87-Gronkowski 3 receiving TD in postseason g
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:05 · DEN 2 · Score 7-35
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 26:53 · DEN 17 · Score 7-41
    (11:53) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Hernandez for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 6 pass TD in a postseason game
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 26:46 · DEN 2 · Score 7-42
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
15. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 17:19 · NE 23 · Score 10-42
    (2:19) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Binn, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
16. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 12:44 · DEN 2 · Score 10-45
    (12:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.