Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Conf. Championship Recap

Game story

In the Conf. Championship of the 2024 NFL season on 2025-01-26, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 32–29 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +9.27 total EPA, and +5.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +24.07 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+15.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +24.07 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
2. 2 X. Worthy · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +9.80 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.40 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +9.27 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Hollins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.95 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.99 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +7.32 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Smith-Schuster · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.38 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.13 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.11 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.04 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Samuel · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.04 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.01 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — K. Hunt (Q1 54:02)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q2 40:30)
• Kansas City Chiefs — X. Worthy (P. Mahomes pass) (Q2 34:18)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q2 32:00)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Hollins (J. Allen pass) (Q2 30:29)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q3 18:01)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q4 10:20)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Samuel (J. Allen pass) (Q4 6:20)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 48:49)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 3:37)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–3. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 12 (Q1 54:02) — (9:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 53:56) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the KC 35 (Q1 48:49) — (3:49) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 14–13. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 6 (Q2 40:30) — (10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-32-N.Bolton was injured during the play.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 40:25) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 11 (Q2 34:18) — (4:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 34:13) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 32:00); Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 7 (Q2 31:55) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 34 (Q2 30:29).

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q3 18:01) — (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 11–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 10 (Q4 10:20) — (10:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 10:14) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 84-Ju.Watson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 4 (Q4 6:20) — (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 6:15) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 17 (Q4 3:37) — (3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 6:20) — (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.6% · EPA +4.11]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid [56-G.Karlaftis]. [WPA -15.1% · EPA -2.55]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 7:38) — (7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to KC 4 for 32 yards (6-B.Cook). [WPA +14.9% · EPA +3.54]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 13:01) — (13:01) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 41 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands [WPA -13.6% · EPA -3.16]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:53) — (10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to KC 6 for 24 yards (21-J.Hicks). [WPA +12.7% · EPA +3.21]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 46:03) — (1:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes to BUF 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at BUF 28. [WPA -11.6% · EPA -5.73]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:29) — (:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +12.0% · EPA +5.29]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 6:20) — (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.6% · EPA +4.11]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 7:38) — (7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to KC 4 for 32 yards (6-B.Cook). [WPA +14.9% · EPA +3.54]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 40 dropbacks · 55.0% completion · +5.2% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +9.27 total EPA
• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 37 dropbacks · 48.6% completion · +5.2% CPOE · +0.65 EPA/play · +24.07 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills +0.15, Kansas City Chiefs +0.19) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 9 drives, +13.35 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 10 drives, +15.06 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 54:02 · BUF 12 · Score 0-6
   (9:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 53:56 · BUF 15 · Score 0-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 48:49 · KC 35 · Score 3-7
   (3:49) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:30 · KC 6 · Score 9-7
   (10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-32-N.Bolton was injured during the play.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:25 · KC 15 · Score 10-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 34:18 · BUF 11 · Score 10-13
   (4:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 34:13 · BUF 15 · Score 10-14
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
8. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · BUF 1 · Score 10-20
   (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-97-J.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
9. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 31:55 · BUF 7 · Score 10-21
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:29 · KC 34 · Score 16-21
    (:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declin
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 18:01 · KC 1 · Score 22-21
    (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 10:20 · BUF 10 · Score 22-27
    (10:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Kansas City Chiefs Safety (+2) — Q4 10:14 · BUF 2 · Score 22-29
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 84-Ju.Watson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 6:20 · KC 4 · Score 28-29
    (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 6:15 · KC 15 · Score 29-29
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
16. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 3:37 · BUF 17 · Score 29-32
    (3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.