Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Divisional Recap

Game story

In the Divisional of the 2021 NFL season on 2022-01-23, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 42–36 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +28.52 total EPA, and +7.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +28.52 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+50.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +28.52 total EPA · 56 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +20.48 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
3. 3 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +20.02 total EPA · 10 snaps · +2.00 EPA/play
4. 4 J. McKinnon · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +6.98 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +6.97 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Hill · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +6.91 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +5.75 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Hardman · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +2.67 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.34 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (Q1 53:07)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q1 47:36)
• Kansas City Chiefs — B. Pringle (P. Mahomes pass) (Q2 31:58)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q2 30:42)
• Kansas City Chiefs — M. Hardman (Q3 17:14)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q3 17:06)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q4 2:00)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Hill (P. Mahomes pass) (Q4 1:13)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q4 0:17)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q3 22:05)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 8:58)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 0:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q1 53:07) — (8:07) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 53:03) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q1 47:36) — (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 47:26) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q2 31:58) — (1:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-B.Pringle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes].; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 31:52) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 18 (Q2 30:42) — (:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 30:37) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 9–7. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 21 (Q3 22:05) — (7:05) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 25 (Q3 17:14) — (2:14) 17-M.Hardman left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 75 (Q3 17:06) — (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 16:56) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 15–13. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 10 (Q4 8:58) — (8:58) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 27 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the KC 2 (Q4 1:54) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 14-S.Diggs is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 64 (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 1:02) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 19 (Q4 0:17) — (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 0:13) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 31 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

Overtime: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 6–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone (OT 10:45) — END GAME.

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:17) — (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +50.8% · EPA +3.76]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +42.8% · EPA +6.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +36.0% · EPA +5.27]
• Kansas City Chiefs (OT 10:50) — (10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +33.7% · EPA +1.73]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:48) — (2:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at KC 24 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen). [WPA +20.5% · EPA +2.29]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 17:06) — (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.0% · EPA +6.09]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +42.8% · EPA +6.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +36.0% · EPA +5.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:17) — (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +50.8% · EPA +3.76]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 56 dropbacks · 58.9% completion · +7.5% CPOE · +0.51 EPA/play · +28.52 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 41 dropbacks · 65.9% completion · +5.9% CPOE · +0.50 EPA/play · +20.48 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills +0.26, Kansas City Chiefs +0.29) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 9 drives, +21.43 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 11 drives, +27.44 total EPA, 8 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 53:07 · KC 1 · Score 6-0
   (8:07) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 53:03 · KC 15 · Score 7-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
3. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 47:36 · BUF 8 · Score 7-6
   (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 47:26 · BUF 15 · Score 7-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
5. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 31:58 · BUF 2 · Score 7-13
   (1:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-B.Pringle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes].
6. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 31:52 · BUF 15 · Score 7-14
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:42 · KC 18 · Score 13-14
   (:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:37 · KC 15 · Score 14-14
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
9. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q3 22:05 · BUF 21 · Score 14-17
   (7:05) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
10. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 17:14 · BUF 25 · Score 14-23
    (2:14) 17-M.Hardman left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 17:06 · KC 75 · Score 20-23
    (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 16:56 · KC 15 · Score 21-23
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
13. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 8:58 · BUF 10 · Score 21-26
    (8:58) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 2:00 · KC 27 · Score 27-26
    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q4 1:54 · KC 2 · Score 29-26
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 14-S.Diggs is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
16. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 1:13 · BUF 64 · Score 29-32
    (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 1:02 · BUF 15 · Score 29-33
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
18. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 0:17 · KC 19 · Score 35-33
    (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 0:13 · KC 15 · Score 36-33
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
20. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · BUF 31 · Score 36-36
    (:03) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
21. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — OT 10:45 · Score 36-42
    END GAME