Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2023 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-11-19, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 27–14 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with -4.95 total EPA, and +2.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.83 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.6% win probability) landed in the third quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Purdy · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +18.83 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Aiyuk · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +10.04 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.67 EPA/play
3. 3 G. Kittle · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +6.50 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Samuel · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.81 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Otton · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.66 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
6. 6 C. McCaffrey · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.29 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Thompkins · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Rushing · +1.83 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.83 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Jarrett · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.35 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — C. McCaffrey (B. Purdy pass) (Q1 48:59)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (B. Mayfield pass) (Q2 31:52)
• San Francisco 49ers — B. Aiyuk (B. Purdy pass) (Q3 26:06)
• San Francisco 49ers — G. Kittle (B. Purdy pass) (Q3 16:46)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. White (Q4 14:22)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — J. Moody (Q2 37:25)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Moody (Q2 30:20)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 4 (Q1 48:59) — (3:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 48:55) — 4-J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–6. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the TB 19 (Q2 37:25) — (7:25) 4-J.Moody 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q2 31:52) — (1:52) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 31:48) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the TB 10 (Q2 30:20) — (:20) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 14–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 76 (Q3 26:06) — (11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 25:54) — 4-J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 3 (Q3 16:46) — (1:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 16:42) — 4-J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q4 14:22) — (14:22) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 14:16) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 26:06) — (11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +5.87]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 43:15) — (13:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at SF 34 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], touched at SF 32, RECOVERED by SF-94-C.Ferrell at SF 35. Fumble Forced by SF-54-F.Warner. [WPA -12.1% · EPA -5.59]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 52:48) — (7:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to TB 38 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield, 35-J.Dean). [WPA +9.7% · EPA +1.99]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 32:32) — (2:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton to SF 18 for 27 yards (29-T.Hufanga). [WPA +7.8% · EPA +2.64]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 4:28) — (4:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to TB 36, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at SF 13 for 51 yards (53-D.Winters). [WPA -6.1% · EPA -3.17]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 26:06) — (11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +5.87]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 43:15) — (13:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at SF 34 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], touched at SF 32, RECOVERED by SF-94-C.Ferrell at SF 35. Fumble Forced by SF-54-F.Warner. [WPA -12.1% · EPA -5.59]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 3:42) — (3:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown (57-D.Greenlaw) [97-N.Bosa] at SF -5. Touchback. [WPA -5.5% · EPA -4.35]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 19:57) — (4:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel ran ob at TB 20 for 40 yards (30-D.Delaney). [WPA +2.1% · EPA +3.33]

Quarterback report card

B.Mayfield led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 53 dropbacks · 54.7% completion · +2.4% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -4.95 total EPA
• B.Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) · 32 dropbacks · 65.6% completion · +16.4% CPOE · +0.59 EPA/play · +18.83 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

San Francisco 49ers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs -0.05), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• San Francisco 49ers: 10 drives, +9.86 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 drives, -4.32 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• B. Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Purdy (SF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 48:59 · TB 4 · Score 0-6
   (3:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 48:55 · TB 15 · Score 0-7
   4-J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
3. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 37:25 · TB 19 · Score 0-10
   (7:25) 4-J.Moody 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 31:52 · SF 1 · Score 6-10
   (1:52) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 31:48 · SF 15 · Score 7-10
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
6. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 30:20 · TB 10 · Score 7-13
   (:20) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
7. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 26:06 · TB 76 · Score 7-19
   (11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.
8. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 25:54 · TB 15 · Score 7-20
   4-J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
9. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 16:46 · TB 3 · Score 7-26
   (1:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 16:42 · TB 15 · Score 7-27
    4-J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 14:22 · SF 1 · Score 13-27
    (14:22) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 14:16 · SF 15 · Score 14-27
    4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.