Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2011 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-10-09, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 48–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with -15.59 total EPA, and -9.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Smith (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.59 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-11.2% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (15:00) 69-D.Dotson reported in as eligible. 5-J.Freeman pass deep right intended for 82-K.Winslow INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Rogers [98-P.Haralson] at TB 31. 22-C.Rogers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +13.59 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Morgan · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +7.44 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +4.21 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.40 EPA/play
4. 4 V. Davis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.11 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.37 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Walker · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.14 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
6. 6 K. Hunter · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +2.57 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Benn · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.08 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Blount · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.85 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — D. Walker (Q1 55:31)
• San Francisco 49ers — C. Rogers (Q2 45:00)
• San Francisco 49ers — F. Gore (Q2 37:59)
• San Francisco 49ers — V. Davis (Q3 24:51)
• San Francisco 49ers — V. Davis (Q4 14:56)
• San Francisco 49ers — A. Dixon (Q4 3:55)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Barth (Q1 49:02)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q2 34:34)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q3 17:40)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–3. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 26 (Q1 55:31) — (10:31) (Shotgun) 11-Alex Smith pass deep right to 46-D.Walker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 2 (Q1 55:26) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the SF 6 (Q1 49:02) — (4:02) 10-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Yount, Holder-9-M.Koenen..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 17–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SF 87 (Q2 45:00); San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 2 (Q2 44:46) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 2 (Q2 37:59) — (7:59) 21-F.Gore left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 2 (Q2 37:56) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the TB 19 (Q2 34:34) — (4:34) 2-D.Akers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 10–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 23 (Q3 24:51) — (9:51) 11-Alex Smith pass short middle to 85-V.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Foster]. Caught at TB 17. 17-yds YAC.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 2 (Q3 24:43) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the TB 10 (Q3 17:40) — (2:40) 2-D.Akers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The fourth quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 14–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 14 (Q4 14:56) — (14:56) 11-Alex Smith pass short left to 85-V.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 2 (Q4 14:52) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q4 3:55) — (3:55) 24-A.Dixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the TB 2 (Q4 3:48) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 69-D.Dotson reported in as eligible. 5-J.Freeman pass deep right intended for 82-K.Winslow INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Rogers [98-P.Haralson] at TB 31. 22-C.Rogers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -11.2% · EPA -6.28]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 45:24) — (:24) 21-F.Gore up the middle to TB 11 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-59-M.Foster at TB 11. 59-M.Foster to TB 11 for no gain (21-F.Gore). [WPA -7.9% · EPA -4.33]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 55:22) — (10:22) 5-J.Freeman pass short left to 17-A.Benn to SF 47 for 33 yards (31-D.Whitner). Caught at TB 27. 26-yds YAC. [WPA +4.9% · EPA +2.79]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 49:14) — (4:14) Josh Freeman back at QB. (Shotgun) 5-J.Freeman pass incomplete short left to 87-P.Parker. [WPA -4.8% · EPA -1.31]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 46:42) — (1:42) (Shotgun) 11-Alex Smith pass short left to 84-J.Morgan to TB 16 for 14 yards (26-S.Jones). Caught at TB 24. 8-yds YAC. [WPA +4.8% · EPA +1.89]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 69-D.Dotson reported in as eligible. 5-J.Freeman pass deep right intended for 82-K.Winslow INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Rogers [98-P.Haralson] at TB 31. 22-C.Rogers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -11.2% · EPA -6.28]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 16:30) — (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Freeman pass short left to 19-M.Williams to TB 38 for 8 yards (38-D.Goldson). FUMBLES (38-D.Goldson), RECOVERED by SF-52-P.Willis at TB 36. 52-P.Willis to TB 36 for no [WPA -0.0% · EPA -4.43]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 45:24) — (:24) 21-F.Gore up the middle to TB 11 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-59-M.Foster at TB 11. 59-M.Foster to TB 11 for no gain (21-F.Gore). [WPA -7.9% · EPA -4.33]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 40:46) — (10:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Freeman pass deep middle intended for 81-M.Spurlock INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Culliver at SF 20. 29-C.Culliver to SF 43 for 23 yards (34-E.Graham, 70-D.Penn). [WPA -4.7% · EPA -3.89]

Quarterback report card

J.Freeman led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 36 dropbacks · 47.2% completion · -9.4% CPOE · -0.43 EPA/play · -15.59 total EPA
• A.Smith (San Francisco 49ers) · 22 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +8.6% CPOE · +0.62 EPA/play · +13.59 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

San Francisco 49ers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.32 vs -0.28), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• San Francisco 49ers: 12 drives, +24.30 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11 drives, -22.04 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• A. Smith (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Freeman (TB) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• A. Smith (SF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 55:31 · TB 26 · Score 0-6
   (10:31) (Shotgun) 11-Alex Smith pass deep right to 46-D.Walker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 55:26 · TB 2 · Score 0-7
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 49:02 · SF 6 · Score 3-7
   (4:02) 10-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Yount, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
4. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · SF 87 · Score 3-13
   (15:00) 69-D.Dotson reported in as eligible. 5-J.Freeman pass deep right intended for 82-K.Winslow INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Rogers [98-P.Haralson] at TB 31. 22-C.Rog
5. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 44:46 · TB 2 · Score 3-14
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
6. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 37:59 · TB 2 · Score 3-20
   (7:59) 21-F.Gore left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 37:56 · TB 2 · Score 3-21
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
8. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 34:34 · TB 19 · Score 3-24
   (4:34) 2-D.Akers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
9. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 24:51 · TB 23 · Score 3-30
   (9:51) 11-Alex Smith pass short middle to 85-V.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-M.Foster]. Caught at TB 17. 17-yds YAC.
10. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 24:43 · TB 2 · Score 3-31
    2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
11. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q3 17:40 · TB 10 · Score 3-34
    (2:40) 2-D.Akers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
12. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 14:56 · TB 14 · Score 3-40
    (14:56) 11-Alex Smith pass short left to 85-V.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 14:52 · TB 2 · Score 3-41
    2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
14. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 3:55 · TB 1 · Score 3-47
    (3:55) 24-A.Dixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
15. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 3:48 · TB 2 · Score 3-48
    2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.